....Street fight
Ironically....following yesterday‘s 100pt intraday drop, what was noted is going to become the overwhelming trading premise after all FX hell broke loose overnight…“The only thing to know today is the Euro had a temporary setback/ USD shaved off last weeks losses and equity market took a step back because of it. In this opinion, the end result will be a weaker USD ahead of QE2..”..
Yesterday’s “..Buyers should appear’ alert at ES 1130 turned into an army of FX warriors running the market ~30 SPX, just from 8am! Why after 8am?.. Why did the ES/ markets get off the blocks so late after global interventions blew overnight? . There was confusion and dissemination of the consequences of these FX manoeuvres before POMO’s 5.2bln began washing through the risk markets. What took over is the ‘wild imagination’ of the market that US QEII will follow suit and buy up ETF’s etc. like Japan. All the ’surprise’ policy acts in Japan, Australia were done to ‘pump’ the USD, even Brazil/SK put in FX control, but this all backfired!. It’s a ‘race to the bottom’ for currencies.
It’s not DJIM’s gig to evaluate, dwell into the ramifications of a FX war as there is an abundance of outlets for this discussion. What we need to figure out is how the individual stocks will perform tomorrow, the next day and the day after. Unfortunately, this FX fighting is going to make trading absolutely dependent on USD. Every up and down will be on the heels of the USD/EURO, it’s really going to suck as the machines will be in complete sync to the dollar and ES/SPY will rule the day. Volatility is likely to return in a big way with intraday swings..morning gaps the norm. Every piece of macro data will be evaluated for QEII expectation. Yes, we are at stage where we want (need) weak data or else market will likely take it on the chin. Don't really want to be in front of a stronger consensus NFP# number, be careful as it closes in. It possibly surpasses estimates by a wider margin than QEII's want.
As far as EPS, expectations are very high to the early Oct reports. (we'll see how this progresses). For now, if you hold into a report, you will likely get pummeled if it is not up too snuff, even if slightly off. This is despite all the pre-announcements so far.