..How high can they go?

The better question might be... is how high can you go with some these solar stocks?   Remember the trip down can get pretty trippy when you are dealing with momentum stocks that have powered up as much as some of these have lately.  Still, a new twist to these big plays is that a few of them produced contracts today to help push them. FSLR got the ball rolling announcing deals worth around 1.3 billion with renewable energy co's out of Europe and TSL followed up with more deals. So are these deals enough to push these even higher or do they just tap the recent run?. Time will tell, but the best thing is to have these on a tight leash..in other words trade them, get in and get out with the tide.  Another positive for FSLR and JASO today was the intervention by a few firms to raise price targets.  A RJ up to $48 really got JASO clicking later in the day.  Are these firms late to the party or are they going to push these higher?.   Lots of questions, lots of momentum and even some secondary solar plays are putting up charts at the close that can't be ignored.  LDK, HOKU are two examples of NCH's, nice charts that can't be overlooked even if they are solar powered.  It's really up to the individual on some of these as to your comfort level. If you've been following them daily off the Journal since the 25th of June, you likely took some of the table today or plan to tomorrow into any morning strength or maybe not and you'll keep riding the momo for as long as it lasts. Just be on guard is all we can say on some of the flying solars.  Hopefully, the contracts and firms getting involved further at these lofty heights is enough for this to continue.  Lets hope for more contracts and more firms upping the estimates/targets. These stocks are not going away in the long run, they came back from the early part of the year when we were trading them hard and now is just another opportunity to capitalize. There will be others down the road if this detours any time soon.

Now..back on planet earth this Monday. We didn't wake to a slew of M & A deals, but you have appreciate the huge buybacks today by JNJ/COP.  Besides, earnings/ M&A action in 07', buybacks have a been an important catalyst as well.  If the firms are buying back at these prices, well then the investor asks why shouldn't I?. It also didn't hurt a 20% premium was put on the head of FDX by a weekend publication.

CMI, this is the 2nd time we hit it nicely off an alert in the past of months. We liked how the stars were aligning with a breakout on the heels of a Bear Stearns upgrade. What you can't ignore is a 10 point move and that it is best to take profits along the way. A steady move such as this allows for entry almost at any point to then take a few points off.  If what you had hoped for in a few days happens within hours...all you could do is take profits somewhere within todays price range and look to re-enter another time.

SPAN, this was highlighted a few weeks back in DJIM #26 as a potential play from around $24. Today it tacked on another 5% to a NCH at $30.60. Buying the pullbacks has been a profitable trade in this one. Maybe we'll get another one later this month.

PENX, TBSI, CUB, DDUP ..usual suspects had nice days again.

And if there is ever any reminding needed of why we trade BTJ the way we do (this sort of came up recently on forum)....well, today's action is the simple reason why.  This is also they type of action some of the solars are capable of sooner or later.

..How about...??

..we just put this day away and watch the All-Star game or something?.  Honestly..despite what looks like a terrible day on paper..NASD down 30, DJIA almost 150, it all seemed without real conviction on the sellers side.  What transpired today was an overloaded bag of expectation for Bernanke to give this market a lift.  You've heard us talk of Paulson repeatedly coming to the rescue of the market... go back recently here on the Journal and see how it coincided with the recent market rally......when he speaks, we go up and this is somewhat expected of Bernanke speak..unfortunately.  Those in the market loop knew Beranke wasn't going to let any tricks out of the bag today...it was what they call an 'academic' speech.  Somehow without him spilling the beans the market used it as an excuse to turn back to the HD guidance and somewhat unravel the market later in the day. But, seriously how much unravelling is there to do when the market is extended as it was heading into today's trading?.  Won't take much!...NASD up 5 straight days, the DJIA/SPX near resistance points.  Today was a distribution day no doubt and it was simply time we eased on the accumulation of stocks.  AA was never the end all of earnings reports, it's just tee-off time in our books for another season....but as we say around here... it's earnings season 12 months a year at DJIM, as the likes of PENX never seem to put a close to an earnings Q...

What were the notables on this distribution day?. You can't expect many as distribution doesn't play favorites and usually goes after biggest gainers first...so, it is no surprise most of the closely followed here closed in the red...A few stood out.  Despite the early sell off gap in the Solars at the open, a couple of names showed vigor as any sell off in the markets taking them down intraday was shrugged off constantly....

LDK, noted this one off the chart last night.  It definitely trades choppy, but there was interest throughout the day as every dip was being bought up.  All you have to do is look at the last dip as the market slipped deeper into the red late and the recovery it made closing back near the the day highs at $37.

TSL, whenever a momo stock can make an intraday bounce of 6 pts, you have to give it kudos for its days action.  So, we'll give it such for today.  FLSR might have a needed a rest , don't you think after yesterday?.  A downgrade didn't help but a 4 point intraday trading range is nothing cry over.  You really have to take a 4+% slide into context here and with any momo stock trading at high prices.   It comes with the territory.

TBSI, this is where experience and an understanding DJIM stocks came into favor today.  Don't remember exactly at what price we started covering TBSI at DJIM,  but one thing you might have seen and noted is the dips this stock is capable of.   If you've held it or just watched, you know a dip has been an opportunity to re-enter this stock.  Sure..today's dip was exaggerated but it only warrants more of your attention and action.  What happened today at the open?. They bought a vessel for 29mln.  Siince when is that a bad thing?.   Some saw it as a reason to dump, a flood ensued and what was a damn extended stock as we have noted recently...fell from 33 to 27's.  If all you wanted to do was flip, our alert probably gave you a fast flip as it moved to 31.50.  We traded some and held some of what we picked up in the 28's and are fine with it at the close as it held above 9ema.

Speaking of 9ema...well ...we don't really in this case as it's speculative junk, but you might want to give LOCM a look very soon for a possible trade. Again, remember we are not in for a relationship on these types as when we alerted and watched it go to $13+ the next day recently.

CCF, you probably remember this one from an alert play in January that turned into a little winner. At that time, it reported something like .62 cents to get our attention. Well, this time it reported .68 AHours, if you forget the split it did for a second.   In other words, this Q is better EPS and Revenue than what got our interest 2 quarters ago.  The question is who wants to get involved tomorrow in a EPS winner after a day like this and especially one stock that is not very liquid.  We`ll see tomorrow if it can attract interest, liquidity most importantly of all.  We don`t want to be stuck with nice size lots with no one to sell it to at the beginning of earnings season in the days to come....might as well stuff a fat ceramic pig instead...

Naz +49.9, Dow +283

Perhaps, there's really no need to write the journal tonight.    Again, as we said last night, we are excited over other people's excitement for this earnings quarter. Also..from weekend chart update.." Since, we have seen the market rally into the upcoming earnings season led by technology..the PHLX Semiconductor sector closed at a 52wk high to close off the week.  The HANG is taking over eyes and money from the SHANG and the day to day volatility in the latter seems to have little less effect on the markets here. That's a relief.  The HANG/HSI chart shows a clear breakout over 21,000 after a long fight (6 mths) with that level.  With a good start to earnings season, M&A activity still showing robustness, we don't doubt the markets can pull a move somewhat similar to HANG's after the DJIA/SPX bust through the 3 mth range over 13700 and 1540 respectively".      How's that for a start today!. Actually, today is that seemingly rolled into one day.  Despite the overall very bullish sentiment of this market, we want to quickly point out that people are only optimistic about the market as long as the earning delivers.    So far, we haven't had many companies to report but it feels like people are playing as if most companies are going to beat earnings expectation.    If this is how people think and at the same time the put the money where their thinking is, so be it.    For us, we still stick to our own game plan and concentrate on those that have reported good report.      A strong market will reward all kinds of traders, whether you are speculating blindly or working with a sound strategy.     Everyone makes money in this market!   

Now onto some of the DJIM plays...

LPHI, oh yes, this one is ready to challenge the old high.    We like where it ended up today and couldn't help but add some more.

DRYS/TBSI,  DRYS has just been a monster as of late.   The 7% gain today in addition to yesterday's gain is something that amazes us even.  TBSI, on the other hand, isn't looking too bad either as it shook off the sell off two days ago and it too  looks like it's ready to challenge its old high. DRYS, an upgrade was up late in the pm.

ASYS, an erratic one it seems or one that gives many opportunities to enter a trader might think.

SOLARS......they are hanging in and probably didn't participate as a few of us would have liked. ...who cares, really..maybe they are waiting to do it on their own...Still..they are hanging in tough and maybe the firms are really getting involved (hope) as we noted the other night.

In fact many stocks hit new high`s today and we are not going to list all of them.   Some email us as to why we don`t include their fave stock in the Journal.  That`s not what the Journal purpose is!.   If we already covered the stock endlessly, it is almost irrelevant if it appears on radar again with a NCH today or yesterday.  It`s worth maybe a note by you on the forum, but it is not enough reason to write about if there are many things better that we are concentrating on.   We also move on from turtles...Sharks eat turtles for breakfast, lunch and dinner and you don`t want be carrying a laggard in this market, especially if this stock in question already gave you a few points off an alert.  

Whether we like it or not, this month looks like it's going to be busier than recent July`s.   If you were invested heavily today, then you had a good time as it didn't take much trading to make money if you were already in the right stocks....you could have sat on your hands and just rang the register..or you could do it tomorrow off any follow through action early.

A few things going on here on the forum the past few days that resemble Summer Camp...

Let's be courteous on the forum... if someone gets bruised.....we've all been there and no reminding is needed....they've given you enough leads on winners that this is not needed and respect should be shown.    Also, if one didn't or don't get enough love from their closest in life or trading life ....let's not use DJIM to wax our egos now or cry for love....Also, if you don't like our comments about a stock we responded about (speak up and we'll debate) and don't do it in round about ways.  It's so obvious, it ridiculous to all...Don't think we are bullying your stock.....just read our comments over again and stop filling other members email boxes with this stock is up $1 nonsense ...hell, it better be in this market off  'pretty' earnings.  We are all here together trying to make $$, screw the summer camp crap....we`re not about to be counselors.  We`ll just call your parents and have them take you away.    Demi

DJIM #29 2007

The easiest thing to do would be to speak of the big market move last week, but we won't do that and instead look forward to the week ahead. Hopefully, we steered you in the right direction in our Journals the past while and you have stayed invested heavily in the market and our plays as they were the beneficiaries as much as anything else last week. Just looking at the list from DIM #28...DRYS TBSI LPHI AZZ FWLT PENX DDUP SCOR FSLR TSL LDK JASO and you see who played with enthusiasm.  If you need still need to grasp the significance of last weeks action, just look at the weekend charts/comments.  Funniest quote so far heard though, is ..."meanwhile while the media is enjoying their victory lap, many investors are less than enthusiastic about the moves in their accounts at the end of the week....they didn't see the same huge gains in their accounts".  Name the the tout and win a free month at DJIMstocks...NAH, that wouldn't work as too many of you are quite familiar with this singer.  Sounds like sour grapes for some reason, if you ask us!.   At this point in the game, we have to look for some potential stalled action, fortunately we have earnings as the base of this DJIMstocks and it should not stop us from going forward as earnings will pick up this week and new picks will start to show their colors.  We already had some nice reports from CCF, GBX, SCHN  indicating a diverse crop of good reports possibly to follow. Use our Earnings Dates link to see some notables reporting.  Again, we ask for members to post within that link any earning dates for DJIM stocks past and present plays you might come across and we will edit them into a list for all to keep track of this Q.  Going forward, we're basically keeping to the same list as last weekend of stocks we are concentrating on, plus a few new ones that appear all over DJIM last week.  Take into consideration some stalling action in the market realistically should come to some of our names as well.  When that happens we wait and see if the stock sets up again for us to enter a buy in. Examples of this are PENX and DDUP late Friday. LPHI was another were patience is rewarded as it put in a 5pt move after we moved in again.  There is not much to add to individual stocks that was not already said last week, nothing has changed really in our thinking towards those plays  A few other breakouts of past DJIM stocks that we have not signalled out but have been mentioned in our forum such as CMED, SPEC should also be included in any watchlist. The most important thing right now is probably to start freeing up some cash if you are heavily invested to use on new plays that will emerge.  It is quite hard now as everything seems to be running and gunning out there, but it is something you might start doing this week.

Trading for the sake of trading....

On surface, this market didn't do alot on either direction today.    When we look closely, it's actually pretty volatile given  where we are, which is essentially the beginning of the earning season.    Some stocks have given up some gains early on but that is just part of the game.    As traders, we have to respect the nature of this game and participate actively as oppose to just spectating as by stander.    The point we are referring to is that we have to actively take profit when things are going good.    For those that have already gotten into this habit, then it's definitely something to treasure for.    We'll take a look at some stocks....

DRYS, this is definitely one of those stocks that have had a tremendous run in the last few days.    We thought it looked a little extended couple of days ago and today it confirmed our suspicion.    At this time, we are going to be shy away from it unless a dramatic move happens to the upside.

TSL, there was plenty of time in the early going to lock in some profit from its recent runup.   If you got a little greedy, well there goes the last few days worth of gains.    When treating the type of momentum stocks like TSL, it almost always pays to sell into strength and buy back on new highs.    Also, it's crucial to setup tight stops and this can save lots of pain for most traders.     This one touched 9 ema today and we'll see how it responds to it tomorrow and next couple of days.

LPHI, this is definitely one of the better, if not the best plays on our screen today.   Believe it or not, it tacked on almost 6 points since our b/o alert of $36 area.    Now, the worst thing you want to do with this kind of play is to set a price target.    In our opinion, it's just not realistic to set any kind of price target.    We go with the flow.    We'd sell some into the strength and if it comes back and goes higher, we'd chase it higher.    So how do you know when the runup will stop?    We'd get worried if it takes out previous day's opening price with a close.      Although this may not work every time as a reversal signal, you can always buy it back(higher) if you get shaken out.    Remember, we are traders so "get shaken out and selling too early" is just part of business.

ASYS, we like this one's setup even though you can say the other solar stocks are in bit of a funk today.    The low float is a definite plus when it comes to trading this stock.  The fact it's still a semi business after all  is also separating it from the other solar stocks.

PENX, this one also did not disappoint and closed reasonably well despite the market's late day weakness.    Based on its recent action, we think the race to $40 range is on for this one.

VSR, some of you have probably been trading this one last little while and so have we.   We think a pullback is definitely needed if this one wants to see even higher prices.   Momentum is very strong and news flow is very steady with this one.    The intraday action has been opportunistic but unless you can stomach the possibility of a pullback, it's better to wait for a better entry.

Market is heating up on the earnings front and even some of the speculative ones have been driven up on positive results.    We just want to caution readers that when looking at the price reaction relative to the earning report on the speculative ones,  ask yourself if the reaction is reasonable.   If you think the reaction is reasonable, then ask yourself again how long this reaction can last and ultimately ask yourself if you are going to be comfortable trading/holding it till next week.     No traders are alike when dealing with any kind of plays.   We just want to make sure that you are aware of the risk and effort that's involved into making a spec. play profitable. 

..can't we all just get along?

...Can't we just use the late afternoon pre 4pm Journal edition and not the 4:01pm GOOG edition.  What was an impressive day with earnings from many giving the hyper bulls more ammo turned quickly sour with GOOG's results.  Maybe if GOOG gave guidance, we'd not be sitting here guessing what will transpire next.  There is really no point to guess the extent of the damage tonight.  A first step is to see reaction of firms in their notes in the morning and then to see where the spillover might or might not be.  Do all the better than expected reports, including NASD tech get washed out by GOOG's report?. The short fear mongers will definitely give this news a good run for your money.  All we could do is watch what our closely followed do tomorrow and that does not mean just in the first hours of trading...Back to before 4pm with DJIM stocks...

AP, opened strong and then basically flat lined the rest of the day. We couldn't have asked for a better follow through day of about 4%.

DRYS, TBSI etc., the shippers are getting positive morning calls day after day. At these levels we are somewhat fearful of nosebleeds to hold these overnight. The best way to trade these is to watch for more morning calls on the sector and trade them from the open and swing some points out of them.

LDK, last night we noted some of the targets on it and the fact that it was only 7pts off IPO price. Well..make that 10 now as it was the most impressive solar out there. We'd look for a pullback if this missed today even off the NCH as the solars might get some pressure... FSLR is off AH about 5 pts due to an offering of 9.65 mln shares... "We are selling 4,000,000 shares and the selling stockholders named in this prospectus are selling 5,650,000 shares of our common stock. We will not receive any of the proceeds from the sale of shares by the selling stockholders."  The interesting thing about these offerings is they should be assumed to occur sooner than later.  You don't sign up 1.28 bln in contracts and continue to work out of your single garage...you need a double garage and you need to fund it.   Still, one of the shorts fave words is dilution and they will work it.

TXT, we thought this could do a quick move off the open and it that shooting 6-7pts.  Short lived as it might be, it serves some of our subs' trading tactics.  We liked the report and if the market sentiment doesn't turn here, we'll hold on to the starter.  We think it has upside off this report ...Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $1.69 per share, $0.24 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $1.45; revenues rose 14.7% year/year to $3.23 bln vs the $3.09 bln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for Q3, sees EPS of $1.45-1.55 vs. $1.53 consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY07, sees EPS of $6.35-6.55, up from previous guidance of $6.10-6.30, vs. $6.31 consensus; sees FY07 rev growth of approx 12%, which equates to revs of approx $12.87 bln vs. $12.6 bln consensus. Also announced repurchase and stock split. Primarily aviation, defense play.

Whatever happens tomorrow, trading opportunities will still come forward.  If you looked over VMI, BMI from last nights Journal lead...or a quick in the form of SBEI's to $7, a DDUP move today to almost $29 shows there is and will be plenty of plays depending on your style.....but what we are gearing for and anticipating is micro- small cap earnings to concentrate on outside of the GOOG world noise.

TTPY, also have a look at this recent IPO, next generation radiation oncology equipment that is gaining acceptance in the marketplace.

DJIM #30, 2007

If there's one thing the market has taught us in the past, it's that you have to always be prepared to face the surprises.    Out of all the companies that have reported last week, nobody expected an earnings miss from the growth behemoth Google.    Sure, some of you can argue that you saw it coming, and that sooner or later it'll happen to Google.    However, lets really be honest here, there was just no indication or any warning from the company or analysts that suggest a short fall was in order for Google's current quarter.     Well, it just made this situation very tricky for this market.   Of course, one company cannot bring down the whole market.  So, CAT helped.  A few of the well respected and cheered companies can certainly derail the market's bull pace, that's for sure.    So what we are going to be keeping an eye on the next little while, is to see if there's going to be a fundamental change in market participant's trading behaviour.    Usually a market participants sentiment would directly translate into his/her trading action.    Action, is what most of us are concerned about.     Well, we do this sort of mental checks often to keep us disciplined.    Before we commit lots of our capital and energy into this market, we have to make sure market's in a favourable environment where mistakes can turn out to be forgiving, not disastrous.   Now lets review some of the plays from last week....

DRYS/TBSI, this duo along with the rest of the shipping sector, has enjoyed one of the most profitable weeks in their lifetime.   It seems analysts are just jumping bandwagon with one upgrade after another.   Nobody wants to be left behind when the whole sector is hot and in play.   Of course, it does make them smart to act the "correct" way.     The difference between us and those analysts is that although we also jump on the bandwagon, but we only jump on because of the trading opportunities.    We can jump off just as quick too.    When dealing with a hot sector, we'd definitely separate the stock action from the companies' business.    Basically, even though one's business may be the excuse to explain the stock behaviour, but ultimately, we trade stock action, we don't trade a company's business.

Solars, this sector has seen some intensive selling for the first time in a while.   Sure, you can say it's just healthy consolidation and it's just a matter of time before they break up again.    For us, until they break do break out, we'd remain very cautious on any bounce attempt.    The only exception from the sector is LDK, which had some company specific news.   We'd keep an eye on that one to see if it warrants further trading opportunities.

AP/TXT, these are two new plays we've added to our watchlist/portfolio.   We are feeling very positive about their earnings and the way traders reacted to their earning.   It's definitely more important to get the right kind of reaction than number.   Again, you only profit from a good reaction, not an actual eps report.

Bottom line, we still have a large portion of stocks that have yet to report and we continue to look for that unlikely hero.    To us, the big companies provide the headline but the little ones provide our bottom line.    As long as the big companies stay in line for the most part, we should still go aggressively after those small ones with a favourable reaction to their earnings report.

Focusing on the sure plays...

Index is doing a good job confusing traders today and it looks as though it'll take a while for some conviction to kick in.    Most of us aren't counting on a major rally at the moment and we are only playing things off a tradable bounce.    As long as we are aware that this is the situation we are in, we then have to look at plays that offer us this kind of tradable opportunities.     There is really just a few obvious plays worth watching for today and we will go through them here...

VMW, we pointed out last night that the break out area is around $59 and boy did it explode after it broke through that mark.    Again, it's about emotion and momentum at this moment and there's really no need to even look at its fundamental aspect of this play.    The ones who paid $66/share only care if he/she can get out at $69 or higher.    Pay attention to the technical sign and intraday movement as they are the only necessary things you need to trade this play at the moment.    With its strong close today, we carried some position home and we'd be at it again aggressively tomorrow.     This one has the kind of liquidity and price movement we haven't seen in a long while.   Take our word for it, this kind of play doesn't come often and do take advantage of it.

ISRG, this one poked back above 9 ema today and closed near the high.   We are keeping our  eyes close on it for a potential follow through.   Unfortunately, many plays on our watchlist are very sensitive to the index movement and it's impossible to forecast the index on an hourly basis.   In another word, playing these kind of plays can be risky so we'd do small lots to cut the exposure down to minimum.

DRYS/TBSI, after DRYS eps report tonight, we'd keep our eyes closely on this pair tomorrow morning for a potential trade.    This group was taken down like others last few days and it'd be interesting to see if they can recover some off this DRYS report.

Bottom line, the index point movement  lately may not show the true potential of this market's volatility.    We shouldn't let this seemingly calm action lower our guard down.    The market can turn badly literally off one piece of bad news and we have to be prepared for it.    We are far from out of the woods  and it's definitely appropriate to trade lightly.    Keep the plays simple and short and we'd able to finish this month on a high note.

Trading on short term memory...

For a good while today, it seemed like we are actually trading on the heel of a very good summer.    Well, for some, they may very well just had a couple of good months.    We can only conclude that traders these days have a very short term memory.     This is neither good news nor bad news and we simply have to adapt to mindset of the majority.    For those of us who do rely on historical trading data going further back more than a couple of weeks, we definitely are in much better shape now than a week ago.    Market was tested severely last week and held its footing.    It looks more and more likely that we may get some volatile sideway action until some major news or catalysts that can propel us into another range.   Well, as long as market behaves in a somewhat predictable manner, we as traders can take opportunities as we know and profit from them.

Overall market aside, it's still about individual stock selection.    Basically, the recent playable action is consisted from the Shippers, Solars, few medical stocks, and a couple of oddball techs and misc. stocks.    Basically, we had a pretty big list of stocks to work with and it doesn't look like the list will shrink in size any time soon.    How do you stay ahead of this game with such a powerful list of stocks then?    If you have lots of capital, diversify and play them all and weigh more in those that have the best relative strength.   If you have small capital, be flexible and stay in green stuff at all time, and move out of those that are in sideway action and jump into those that have strong relative strength.        If you haven't been taking advantage of some of the recent runners, perhaps you should go over the priority of your watchlist and review what you could've done differently.

DRYS/EXM/TBSI,  both DRYS and EXM had some really nice early strength that weakened toward the late trading.   We'd be careful chasing these ones in sizes at this point.   The pullback on these can be quick and painful if you aren't careful.   TBSI, however, paints a different picture and it looks as though it's ready to break out.    Unfortunately, the group movement can overshadow any individual strength in this sector.   We'd look at leader for trading clue.

LDK/FSLR/JASO, out of all of the recent solar names we'd been trading, LDK is the only one that's been making new 52 week highs.   We are trading this group on a day by day basis.   Basically, we'd carry some into a good close and flip in out intraday.

MR, we said last week that we are looking for $35.50 area for a breakout with above average volume.    Obviously, we got that today and we added some aggressively.    It's been a long while since this play had a multi day runup and we are crossing our fingers this time too.

EJ, basically, we were looking for a break of $19 and a close above $19.50 to confirm a good breakout.   We got that today and we did the obvious.

WX, earning is coming out on Thursday morning and it's more than likely to be good.   However, we aren't taking any chances and we'd reduce our exposure to a bare bone position before the report.    Still, even at the closing price today, it's been a great runup for us since we started trading it about a week and half ago.

Other setups we like today and chased a few with include ARTC, NVT, and WBD.    There are quite few other stocks that showed good strength and are worthy of a play.   It's very much dependent on how many positions you'd be able to handle at one time.    It does take some experience to TRADE more than a dozen stocks at same time.    If you aren't there yet, just make sure you trade the ones you are most comfortable and most familiar with.

..wild swings or..

was it just our book of stocks?lol...you can't really tell if you look at the tight 20pt range the NASD put in, but the wild and choppy action was prevalent in DJIM stocks from the open.  You could have sold out your book of DJIM holdings in the first 10 minutes of trading and called it a great day, instead you might have ended up watching your gains quickly evaporate before recovering very nicely as the day progressed.  Unfortunately, unless you had pre set sell orders the chances are slim you could have sold a good portion at the higher prices.  Since , most are not in a position to trade by the minute, you just have to deal with the choppiness.    As we just said in yesterday's journal, this choppy action is a very good environment for trading, recycling the stocks listed here....

WBD, you're not going to find many more so thin and volatile to trade then WBD.   Already having a nice move since the premkt alert Wednesday when it was trading $102-03, it acted quickly to our strategy here,.."traded in a thin range, consolidating action we hope after the earnings spike.  A stock over $100 .....trading in a 2 pt range has attractive qualities if it breaks the top range".  Nothing like a gap to break that range and get enthusiasm started for a stock looking at weekly highs on the charts.   Momentum quickly grew and you still had plenty of time to catch our alert $112 level to catch a ride to $118+ high if you were not in already.   We will like this very much again if it breaks the 116-118 levels and holds, but at these prices we have stepped out as the possibility of hitting some psychological resistance was there if you look at the daily chart.  This is the same prospect we noted on GLDN after it hit the recent double tops after another nice run.  We want confirmation on the close for these plays to hold a NCH (new closing high), preferably with volume before we look to play the potential nice leg up that exists for both.

VMW,  it's good to see it's back to it's old self and trading with the momo that made it stand out here recently.  If you look at the daily chart, you will see it had support and usually bounced off the $66.50ish. As the days dragged on it found itself at that price with the 9ema caught up to it. You can almost call it a trap of sorts as Tuesday's morning tone made it gap down to $64's. Well...that pretty well cleaned out the weak hands. Once the stock recovered to above the 66.50ish, it was clear sailing.  You could see that by around 11:30, the volume move from that level to $68.    It continued on scored a nice close.    Again, we look for momentum here and start thinking of recent highs as a possibility soon.   We like this stock a lot as said before and not only for the trading possibilities it gives, so be patient and if it doesn't participate in rallys recently..remember this from a recent Journal  on Aug 29th. instead of asking us what's wrong with the stock..."WX, continued its bounce of 9ema area early on, but the move never materialized further when the market kicked in.  One other disappointment was the action in VMW considering the technology sec was grooving and it opened $72's..  Sometimes the popular kids just don't go to these lame summer parties.  We think these got their own game going and today they just let others play after partying for days!".   You only have to look at the flight of WX since that day and we hope yesterdays action in VMW is the beginning of a new trend up as well.  

A damper to this VMV move early on today might be MSFT product launch into the 'virtualization' space announced after close, but the piece of software is many months away and with MSFT's delays who knows when that might be.   Life goes on for VMW in the meantime with everybody wanting to do business with them.

WX...it held up reasonably well premkt off earnings, even trading at the previous days close before the report.  At the open it was a different story as it sank to high 25's. Yesterday, we said look for 9ema to possibly come into play and wow it did ever as the stock spiked back over 30. Hope some of you were watching and flipped 3-4 points quickly.  Action like that gets our attention and so we will keep it at the top of our trading list.

EJ,   it looked positive premarket and at the open but never recovered as most of the other plays after the initial sell off that occurred just after the open.  E-House won't be long in the DJIM house if it gets hosed down like that again....Ironically, it is chasing the easy money and not buying the CUB's that eventually calls for days like that as journaled yesterday.  So suck it up and have your anti- nausea medication next to your trading platform if you want to play these volatile sorts.  Sometimes we feel we waste our time on this Journal as seemingly some just speed read through it and then ask us what we are doing with EJ as it was coming off day's high.  These questions are always from someone who buys at the top of a day like yesterday, but on the other hand some on our forum do make notes in their trading notes and recalled EJ as a play mid 19's ....."EJ, this is a new play we added to our watchlist today.   Although we don't think it's nearly as sexy as WX, but being one of the recent Chinese IPO and the way many Chinese ADRs have been behaving lately, we think it has a chance to runup some.   The technical looks good and there's a test coming up to see if it can break out of $19.50, which is around the closing price on its IPO day."  Monday, Aug 27th.     

Anyways,  we'll see what today brings to it. We've already seen it bounce nicely off a smaller sell off Wednesday and we're basically back to where we started with EJ on DJIM.   This has similar characteristics to WX and others we have played here, so if WX recent run and its pop off the early selling yesterday is any indication then BJ is hardly going to become a dead play in one day.   Especially, if you consider its business and that the Shanghai composite closed at twice the level at which it started the year at.

GRMN, gapped but never saw that price again.   As long as it stays steady and tech performs well, we will stick to it.

DRYS/EXM/TBSI...we'll just repeat yesterdays and 2 weeks worth of blab on them..."you can't ignore a strong sector"

MR LWAY CUB JASO ISRG -CRDC round out the top of the trading list going into the trading day.

LDK coming off highs is paying 1bln to FLR. This might take a positive spin today as a confirmation of those 500mln deals going through.

..Blue chips not small chips....

Thursday's action just added to the imbalances, subdued action we've been complaining about since Tuesday.  Adding to this boring action was a spark to the multinationals....blue chips..  Sorry, but a Big Mac in a GM is not our game, so we are left watching this grinding action amongst the small caps we've traded so often.   We've basically packed it in ahead of the weekend, maybe the Fed meeting.   The only thing we are doing is being patient and not trading for the sake of trading.  The time will come soon enough that plays, set ups,  emerge and you'll be happy you did not enter or chase this week.   As we discussed yesterday, we are not going after what looks like a break intraday.  Instead, we are waiting to the last half hour to see if what had potential midday has it at the close.  Time after time, what you might have thought was a possible good idea intraday turns out to be a stinker at the close.  Just too many head fakes, false breakouts out there and more than a few of them are listed on the forum. 

Our queasy feeling from Tuesday's action was nothing more than caution and it has saved us a few dollars in the past few days and still might more.  The shippers...DRYS, TBSI have dry docked...the solars are not so bright...LDK, FSLR giving up 7-8 pts in one day off an upgrade....and the Chinese stocks are not living up to the Shang.......VMW has never seen the heights reached since the first hour back on Tuesday.....Preserving the cash is just as important as ringing the register...you can't ring it later if you're not preserving it at one time or another during the trading year.   This is one week it's been called for.....live with it as we are...Don't stretch a play in your mind into something it is not capable of being this week!

L' Shana Tova!

..what a helicopter drop!

What can you say?....A Helicopter Ben surprise with an aggressive helicopter drop down every chimney!.   Yes...kids there will be a Christmas this year, thanks to Santa Ben.   We can also get a bigger tree on credit!.    Most importantly..your parents will have something to trade into what is the usually the best trading season and so you might get presents under the tree as well!...   To us this is what mattered most, the ability to have a tradable winter!.   It is almost irrelevant if you missed one of the biggest Wall street day's in years.   You only need to look forward and the opportunities this will most likely give all of us.   This was so well orchestrated, the PPI #'s in the morning, the LEH report and then what they are calling now the 'shock and awe'.  But, was it really if you look at all the pieces and how they were lining up during the day.    Well, at least that's the way we were thinking as the day progressed.   Considering our stance heading into this was one of being thinly positioned, mostly because we'd seen nothing worthwhile to trade off the past 5 trading,  it might have come as a surprise why we alerting a buy into GS in the morning.  Not only is it a large cap, but it is a bank(s) that never floats DJIM's boat.   As we say often here, we trade with our heads, but the gut plays a role with the head making the last decision.  Guess we went out on the limb with GS, who we saw as potentially the biggest beneficiary of what we got. Also knowing the incredible up and down volatility that always immediately follows the FOMC minutes, we still alerted an invitation to an upcoming party for the market in whole. We never got the volatility, it was straight up to close at highs of day.  We had the inkling of one coming as the day wore on and us soon as we saw a 50bps -50 discount and a do as 'needed' statement, there was nothing left to do but press the send button at 2:15.   Still...like we said,  it's irrelevant if you missed the whole day or our party invitation.   It is the rosy forward trading picture that matters.   Still, we all knew this was shaping up as a historic day for weeks and it should have had you at the trading platform to be actionable just in case.    So, if 50% were correct on the 50bps, a much lesser % of the .50bps camp dreamed of the other .50 and accompanying statement and so what you got was all camps chasing, covering.....making a record day.   The biggest winners of course were the ones heavily positioned.   That's great, but to us the risk was not worth heading into Tuesday.. Instead, we simply reacted to the days flow and still had a nice day.  Reason being if you are mostly in cash heading into this surprise, you can allot the cash to the right sector, the right plays when given the green light.   You have money to burn!.     If you were invested too much, especially in sectors not benefiting, you might have been stuck in plays lagging with no extra cash to benefit.    Human nature is to wait and not believe your stock is not participating.   Remember, not all get invited to the party, we've been through this before recently with VMW,WX not playing along on nice days.   Today, we if get a nice follow through early...we will be selling lots and lots of yesterdays buys before catching our breath and possibly repositioning.    We've talked about this methodology here many times before and most recently put it to work last Tuesday morning to cash in.

GS, of course you could have played anything after the cut in this sector, but as far as we are concerned it was best to keep adding to the morning buys as GS is best of breed to us.  LEH did a lot to make you want to hold GS into earnings, we will be hard pressed not to hold some even if it goes against our DJIM methodology of not holding into earnings.  This is different considering the turn of events, including the LEH report. We still will take a handsome portion of the profits off and keep some into the report on Thursday.  This surely will present some quick in and out opportunities into the close today as speculating will come in.

EXM, DRYS, FREE when a sector shows strength before a FOMC even if it falters just before, it still should be on your radar as the first possibility to trade into following what was a surprise.    If it tries once, it should try again if the news is good.  As far as FREE is concerned, the market participants just haven't had reason to get on the small float, EPS bandwagon this Q.   It's as if the herd has left the building.  We saw that apprehension early in this stock, you can't really blame the herd as it was on the day of the FOMC.   Maybe, the mentality will change and the herd will remember the possibilities in these types of stock we all enjoy here when it's been fashionable.  There is also a seller that was creating a wall, if you have level 2 you will see him as ARCA and they are not showing how much they have.    Once this is/if removed this might move.  Of course, the sector motion will play a role here.  Many stocks take time to be discovered, especially if the time is not one where traders are scrambling to trade as we've seen lately.    We hope this action yesterday by the FED changes that for the sake of small float, EPS stocks as we head into earnings season, our bread and butter.

BIDU, EJ, ROS these stocks highlighted in previous days Journal all performed well leading into the afternoon. You don't need to chase stocks off alerts here, you have plenty of opportunities to get in stocks after the morning Journals and profit.  Every stock is different, some need to be chased, most don't.    There is something for every type of trader, investor here.   Each one of these stocks is different in its volatility and therefore suitability.    We just happen to like to trade all the colors.  EJ, had a tight .15 cent range, which might signal more accumulation after the heavy activity at $20.00 the day before. Where is Merril with a initiation?. This action we've seen the last 2 days might be the forward to it. ROS, russian telcos keep on acting well, even before the FED note.  BIDU, you probably have taken most off the table. It would be the smart thing to do after the last 2 days.

Best to look over the charts printed here for possibilities this morning.  Be careful and don't be trying to play catch up this morning if you missed some entries late yesterday.  We'd hate to be selling some of them to you.  Santa Ben has given us more time than we could have envisioned to make $....you won't be left behind.

Bulls on 'roids and Pigs can fly..!.

Those seem to be facts now!.   This is what we saw yesterday as the Chinese bulls roared off the Asian markets, even when left at home alone with the SHANG on holiday's.    With every Bull shot there is a pig in it's footsteps.   Meaning speculation on junk ones was wild and you need to be careful at this probable late stage in the game.    Back at the ranch, the market was doing better than expected with not a lot of profit taking.   We added this footnote to a post before noon,  "Considering yesterdays action this hasn't been bad at all or meager for the small caps /RUT been green most of the day. Bunch of those sorts here having good days WX EJ BIDU JRJC LULU MELI ROS GLDN FSLR EXM TBSI..AZZ might still " .    The day turned from good to very good late in the session for these stocks and a few others like GS, VMW, CSCT.    The market continued to trade sideways and finished mixed, yet for consecutive days now, we were in the right place at the right time.     Hopefully, our morning Journal steered you back home if you've strayed!.     This was the true Bull shot of the day, the DJIM index.    There is really not much to say heading into today trading, except that hopefully we all played these shooters smart and took some off the table.    This is especially true with the gains generated by the Chinese stocks covered here.    Even the good ones will get nosebleeds.

A member noted and what is probably a good way to understand the Journal is to see it as us thinking 'out load'.  One thing is to shadow plays, another is to shadow our mindset, which is probably the better way to go.     We can't give buy/ sell advice, all we could do is show what we are buying and thinking.    Hopefully, it rubs off on you and improves your trading ways.    When we noted yesterday.."Now, we just ask WX to get some game and it will have our most recent China plays on even ground. Oh yeah..where was BIDU yesterday?.     Lets no forget this rocket ship when looking for a good intraday trade.".    You need to ask yourself why are we even mentioning these two that under performed the day before.    Simply, we are thinking ahead and with a big overnight Asian market these just might come out and play with the rest of the kids.   Trading is so much a psyche game, you need to think ahead and think what others will or might do.   Your gig is to get there in the early stage or even ahead of the herd.   We gave the below leads yesterday, clues into where we might be leaning and why.  All you needed was one or two to have an excellent day.  The language is simple and we'd all should have been prepared..

TBSI got back in the hunt and is close to highs.

VMW, we don't cover much tech, but VMW has been the one we have traded the most.   Finally..this one is acting with the sector

which is leading the recent parade and not playing on its own terms. $90+ is in reach now

ROS, GLDN our Russian telco plays are not be forgotten as long as they cling to highs and therefore offer more upside potential in the near future.

WX and BIDU( wasn't all JPM initiation), it was a matter if you build it, they will come!.   The build up was the overnight markets and these were prime candidates to play in the mud with the others.    Anyways, yesterday was a day for us to daytrade these high flying Chinese stocks and it occupied most of our day.    Now, we need to get back to basics and deal with reality and concentrate on the others like GS, FSLR, VMW, AZZ etc.  The EPS winners and ones to come and the potential set ups that we can all get in early on. 

We all need to be a realistic after two days of solid gains!

..Boy Scouts

We welcomed a surprise Fed minutes stimuli in yesterdays Journal to get us out of a meandering market place and we got it good!.  Well..pretty good as the volume still sucks out there.    The policymakers acted like boys scouts in their last open committee meeting as all agreed.   A united group they stand.    As much as anything this shared analysis, therefore a determined effort by all on the correct response provided the kick we needed, included in this was Poole's comments that for once didn't rattle the markets.    There were no differences as earlier and this was probably the most important factor seen by the big players.   Equities simply rallied as the FED did not see broad based weakness in the economy and the market said let's get on with it and put the credit squeeze behind us.     A few M & A deals were overshadowed, but this was also a good sign.   Again, as discussed in the weekend edition of DJIM# 41, good trading is a case of being in the right stocks that would potentially move the best when the market gets a lift and therefore gives a lift to your stocks on the good news. ..."....Simply,  if you had the right stocks the probability was they would be the ones that would give the strongest day.   You have to feed off good news and use the lift provided by news to lift your stocks.   What stocks will be the beneficiary, which have the best chance of catching volume???.  Always ask yourself.   We should all know from the group of stocks we cover".        If you have your hand in these closely monitored stocks you'll know what we mean...starting with...

DRYS TBSI  EXM and the secondaries noted yesterday premarket ESEA/PRGN.  All up 5-10% on the day with DRYS the volume monster.  It was already a good day for all of these before the minutes gave them another round of kicks higher.  The Baltic Dry Index the gauge of freight costs was toying with the 10,000 point level.   The demand from emerging markets is incredible with port congestion in many a country.  The capacity is drained and these boys can kick up rates.   This is nothing new as this has been expressed here constantly, including yesterday.  A possible good sign is other smaller plays are participating in this last binge buying and it all started with the, ..."The shippers, notably DRYS TBSI moved off 9ema yesterday. EXM should follow if this small reversal holds" noted Friday morning.   A helluva run from that short term support area of the 9ema.  Maybe this FREE can catch on if the micros piggyback action in recent days continues, unfortunately, that bloody ARCA on level 2 is still on the ask and not showing his hand.  Once removed this could really move just off its tiny float. 

GS,  if you want a barometer for this market lately look no further.  The drift, the lull of fence sitters was evident in the action of GS proceeding the minutes.   Interestingly, we thought this was setting up to hear a clue of more interest rate cuts in the near term to drive it higher yesterday. Instead, it fed off the news and took a different approach as to signs the boy scouts gave.  To gauge the minutes reaction all you had to do was to watch GS's reaction.   It was evident instantly, we might be in for a good stretch run late in the day.   If we had to pick a large cap, we're glad GS has been a fave here since those recent $190's.

VMW,  recently we talked of this having a shot at 90+, yesterday we talked of $100..what next ?lol.  We're happy to have this as the tech stock of choice if the techs continue forward off good earnings.  Again, you don't need a lot of stocks, you just need the right ones.

STV,  a simple follow up is that it held the morning open prices after retracing to them midday. We'd keep an eye on that level in the short term if breached as a possible exit before re-entering at a later point. Otherwise ...have fun!. Just don't forget there is a market out there beyond watching the minute ticks of this all day.   If STV has you on the edge of the seat because you fear the drops it already has given, take a smaller position.  You don't want to miss other opp's this market gives daily.

A few others from our Journals.....LDK, trade it, flip it..we just won't hold it overnight.   A day turnaround does not make an uptrend in our minds.  Company can say one thing, but a few want to see the independent reports and simply the problem there is not yet solved or the stock would be up much more.     Looks like a lawsuit or two is coming already.     AZZ, maybe closed the gap created by earnings and will act like the earnings guided stock it should be..maybe not.   GLDN,  not sure why this reacted this way to a raising of guidance, this is a low float stock and sometimes you lose sight of that because of the group its in and make more of a move than you should.   One thing to consider is while STV might be the Digital play in China, a huge conversion to digital tv is going on in Russia where TV penetration is at 97%.   GLDN is not a pure telecom play, it is a Digital TV play as well and that will be slowly recognized over time.    CETV, this euro stock was a big winner here before and we took a place in it yesterday as it approaches old highs.     A focus here was creating a new watch list of tradable stocks for our members, over time this list has grown and some might be page on 2 or 3 now as those plays wore off.   As noted yesterday in the forum,  it's good to have past flyers around as they may fly again.   History is no mystery.  If a stock was a fast mover that we once liked, it might be again.    AXR might have been one the last few days, but there is a bigger past mover out there in AMAG $55-72 that has had a great month so far.       FWLT, GHM, GTLS might be ones to stick on closer watch again.

Despite the action in afternoon, volume is still a concern.   A few fell off the fence on to the long side yesterday, but not as many as we'd like to see.   What you don't want to see is a continued divergence in the volume with a ladder walk up in points on the major indices.  This is what we are seeing in the NYSE and SPX stuff.

...The Love boat (ship)

Despite the major indices puttering along, notably the Dow as the big caps lost its allure thanks to profit worries hitting the A-B-C's and even an M of the big cap niche (AA,BA,CVX,MON), the DJIM closely watched index hardly blinked an eye.  This midday down tick included the RUT, rotting away till a late push made for a mixed day.   Life went on here, the main concentration here this week continued on the Shipping stocks and most of us were humming....Love, exciting and new..Come aboard.  We 're expecting you.  Love, life's sweetest reward...let it flow, it floats back to you....Okay, no romance here, but we were all waiting for more traders to get aboard our ships filled with iron ore and cereals to send our stocks higher.   Most importantly, we were waiting for those interested in a FREE ride and we definitely got this low floater discovered as it hit Briefingtrader and then late afternoon the more widely read day log that really pushed it.  This was our cry in the forum early and our cries turned to smiles as they profiled FREE late in the day.

The boys DRYS, TBSI, EXM, the secondary plays ESEA, PRGN started great and of course the idea of FREE caught on.   For a second lets turn back the clock to Aug 26 when we issued a weekend alert as the markets were dwindling, yet the shippers were making new highs.   What a concept buying the NCH is!.  This time it wasn't for an individual stock, it was for a sector.    Why not?.   This just stamps the over played methodology here of buying the strongest, those near highs and those making NCH's.   Same goes for the China stocks we've been trading.   The idea Tuesday at noon that this sector might go even higher after an already great morning proved to be true and TBSI had a nice and quick 5 point upside from the $50 mark.  Oh yeah, great job Briefingcom for picking up on the secondary plays to the big boys, it only helps our cause that was expressed here early this week.  We're not looking for the recent China speculative action to repeat itself,  so what we do is sell to the ones boarding this train late...sorry meant ship!.   Hey, every nice size cargo has to be unloaded at some time and we're not shy about doing it.    FREE, we waited long enough for this to be discovered,  our last note was early Tuesday afternoon and of course we were selling quite a bit into the strength.   We've always tried and discovered stocks before the herd as many of you know from hanging out with us at those seedy bars before.   There is money to be made in getting early, it is a clear monetary advantage to get to something first and use the later herd discovery as an advantage to your pocket book.   This was the case with FREE, even MHJ got  some print and pump in other circles.    We don't doubt this could go higher as this discovery on huge volume should give it legs and we'll trade it accordingly.   Our only fault with it is it has a knack of giving it up (gains) and until that seller is completely removed, we aren't so sure it won't again.   If using the big volume surge as a gauge this shouldn't happen...still if some profit taking takes its course in the big boys soon, this FREE will see it too.  The BDI jumped 3.6% and the fever will continue into Q1 `08, but not without a few hiccups.   We've seen them before eh?.  Not all up days are 3.6% on a index are they.  Also, don't confuse dry bulk ships with those carrying crude.   There isn't a worse area to swim in.

Unless the #'s, guidance from the big techs ( most importantly) is terrible, we are of the gut feeling the RUT will have a melt up into the late stage of 2007 and catch up to the indices that are making new highs seemingly daily. We're in the right place with the niche we cover if this happens..okay, when it happens;).  So, don't panic when you see the DJIA drift lower just over100 points if your DJIM play list is not blinking like yesterday.  Anyways, a very good week as we've been in the loop as to what is going to move. 

A few scattered names of interest/ focus that we have been adding to or looking to possibly get in, include................

VMW, tgt raised yesterday by UBS,    China's STV, WX ,EDU (eps next week, maybe a little run before off a NCH today), also dirty Brean Murray is here so after JRJC who knows what they might have in mind here,    GLDN, which regrouped and had a solid day,   CETV near highs,   CSCT which had some news out on revenue yesterday,  maybe even GROW on a reversal following some asset news yesterday and ARTW, following EPS midday.