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« DJIM #36 2007 | Main | DJIM Journal »
Tuesday
Sep042007

Trading on short term memory...

For a good while today, it seemed like we are actually trading on the heel of a very good summer.    Well, for some, they may very well just had a couple of good months.    We can only conclude that traders these days have a very short term memory.     This is neither good news nor bad news and we simply have to adapt to mindset of the majority.    For those of us who do rely on historical trading data going further back more than a couple of weeks, we definitely are in much better shape now than a week ago.    Market was tested severely last week and held its footing.    It looks more and more likely that we may get some volatile sideway action until some major news or catalysts that can propel us into another range.   Well, as long as market behaves in a somewhat predictable manner, we as traders can take opportunities as we know and profit from them.

Overall market aside, it's still about individual stock selection.    Basically, the recent playable action is consisted from the Shippers, Solars, few medical stocks, and a couple of oddball techs and misc. stocks.    Basically, we had a pretty big list of stocks to work with and it doesn't look like the list will shrink in size any time soon.    How do you stay ahead of this game with such a powerful list of stocks then?    If you have lots of capital, diversify and play them all and weigh more in those that have the best relative strength.   If you have small capital, be flexible and stay in green stuff at all time, and move out of those that are in sideway action and jump into those that have strong relative strength.        If you haven't been taking advantage of some of the recent runners, perhaps you should go over the priority of your watchlist and review what you could've done differently.

DRYS/EXM/TBSI,  both DRYS and EXM had some really nice early strength that weakened toward the late trading.   We'd be careful chasing these ones in sizes at this point.   The pullback on these can be quick and painful if you aren't careful.   TBSI, however, paints a different picture and it looks as though it's ready to break out.    Unfortunately, the group movement can overshadow any individual strength in this sector.   We'd look at leader for trading clue.

LDK/FSLR/JASO, out of all of the recent solar names we'd been trading, LDK is the only one that's been making new 52 week highs.   We are trading this group on a day by day basis.   Basically, we'd carry some into a good close and flip in out intraday.

MR, we said last week that we are looking for $35.50 area for a breakout with above average volume.    Obviously, we got that today and we added some aggressively.    It's been a long while since this play had a multi day runup and we are crossing our fingers this time too.

EJ, basically, we were looking for a break of $19 and a close above $19.50 to confirm a good breakout.   We got that today and we did the obvious.

WX, earning is coming out on Thursday morning and it's more than likely to be good.   However, we aren't taking any chances and we'd reduce our exposure to a bare bone position before the report.    Still, even at the closing price today, it's been a great runup for us since we started trading it about a week and half ago.

Other setups we like today and chased a few with include ARTC, NVT, and WBD.    There are quite few other stocks that showed good strength and are worthy of a play.   It's very much dependent on how many positions you'd be able to handle at one time.    It does take some experience to TRADE more than a dozen stocks at same time.    If you aren't there yet, just make sure you trade the ones you are most comfortable and most familiar with.