..Boy Scouts

We welcomed a surprise Fed minutes stimuli in yesterdays Journal to get us out of a meandering market place and we got it good!.  Well..pretty good as the volume still sucks out there.    The policymakers acted like boys scouts in their last open committee meeting as all agreed.   A united group they stand.    As much as anything this shared analysis, therefore a determined effort by all on the correct response provided the kick we needed, included in this was Poole's comments that for once didn't rattle the markets.    There were no differences as earlier and this was probably the most important factor seen by the big players.   Equities simply rallied as the FED did not see broad based weakness in the economy and the market said let's get on with it and put the credit squeeze behind us.     A few M & A deals were overshadowed, but this was also a good sign.   Again, as discussed in the weekend edition of DJIM# 41, good trading is a case of being in the right stocks that would potentially move the best when the market gets a lift and therefore gives a lift to your stocks on the good news. ..."....Simply,  if you had the right stocks the probability was they would be the ones that would give the strongest day.   You have to feed off good news and use the lift provided by news to lift your stocks.   What stocks will be the beneficiary, which have the best chance of catching volume???.  Always ask yourself.   We should all know from the group of stocks we cover".        If you have your hand in these closely monitored stocks you'll know what we mean...starting with...

DRYS TBSI  EXM and the secondaries noted yesterday premarket ESEA/PRGN.  All up 5-10% on the day with DRYS the volume monster.  It was already a good day for all of these before the minutes gave them another round of kicks higher.  The Baltic Dry Index the gauge of freight costs was toying with the 10,000 point level.   The demand from emerging markets is incredible with port congestion in many a country.  The capacity is drained and these boys can kick up rates.   This is nothing new as this has been expressed here constantly, including yesterday.  A possible good sign is other smaller plays are participating in this last binge buying and it all started with the, ..."The shippers, notably DRYS TBSI moved off 9ema yesterday. EXM should follow if this small reversal holds" noted Friday morning.   A helluva run from that short term support area of the 9ema.  Maybe this FREE can catch on if the micros piggyback action in recent days continues, unfortunately, that bloody ARCA on level 2 is still on the ask and not showing his hand.  Once removed this could really move just off its tiny float. 

GS,  if you want a barometer for this market lately look no further.  The drift, the lull of fence sitters was evident in the action of GS proceeding the minutes.   Interestingly, we thought this was setting up to hear a clue of more interest rate cuts in the near term to drive it higher yesterday. Instead, it fed off the news and took a different approach as to signs the boy scouts gave.  To gauge the minutes reaction all you had to do was to watch GS's reaction.   It was evident instantly, we might be in for a good stretch run late in the day.   If we had to pick a large cap, we're glad GS has been a fave here since those recent $190's.

VMW,  recently we talked of this having a shot at 90+, yesterday we talked of $100..what next ?lol.  We're happy to have this as the tech stock of choice if the techs continue forward off good earnings.  Again, you don't need a lot of stocks, you just need the right ones.

STV,  a simple follow up is that it held the morning open prices after retracing to them midday. We'd keep an eye on that level in the short term if breached as a possible exit before re-entering at a later point. Otherwise ...have fun!. Just don't forget there is a market out there beyond watching the minute ticks of this all day.   If STV has you on the edge of the seat because you fear the drops it already has given, take a smaller position.  You don't want to miss other opp's this market gives daily.

A few others from our Journals.....LDK, trade it, flip it..we just won't hold it overnight.   A day turnaround does not make an uptrend in our minds.  Company can say one thing, but a few want to see the independent reports and simply the problem there is not yet solved or the stock would be up much more.     Looks like a lawsuit or two is coming already.     AZZ, maybe closed the gap created by earnings and will act like the earnings guided stock it should be..maybe not.   GLDN,  not sure why this reacted this way to a raising of guidance, this is a low float stock and sometimes you lose sight of that because of the group its in and make more of a move than you should.   One thing to consider is while STV might be the Digital play in China, a huge conversion to digital tv is going on in Russia where TV penetration is at 97%.   GLDN is not a pure telecom play, it is a Digital TV play as well and that will be slowly recognized over time.    CETV, this euro stock was a big winner here before and we took a place in it yesterday as it approaches old highs.     A focus here was creating a new watch list of tradable stocks for our members, over time this list has grown and some might be page on 2 or 3 now as those plays wore off.   As noted yesterday in the forum,  it's good to have past flyers around as they may fly again.   History is no mystery.  If a stock was a fast mover that we once liked, it might be again.    AXR might have been one the last few days, but there is a bigger past mover out there in AMAG $55-72 that has had a great month so far.       FWLT, GHM, GTLS might be ones to stick on closer watch again.

Despite the action in afternoon, volume is still a concern.   A few fell off the fence on to the long side yesterday, but not as many as we'd like to see.   What you don't want to see is a continued divergence in the volume with a ladder walk up in points on the major indices.  This is what we are seeing in the NYSE and SPX stuff.