DJIM #49 2009

Despite the ‘big surprise’ from the NFP report and all the noise regarding FX/ interest rate possibilities that caused big intraday swings,  we only know one thing still… (A close between SPX1115 to 1120 is needed badly to even think of a breakout eventually).   Our discussions late in the week concentrated on the 2 failed follow throughs to the rally after hitting new intraday highs with no conviction (volume) buying coming in for a breakout.    So, for the 3rd day  the market lost momentum as it nears 1120.   If you bought and /or chased the morning action,  you’re not with us in believing the importance of seeing a 1115-1120 close before being enticed to buy.   We need to see sustained strength and 30minutes as Friday morning is just not enough!.   Still,  we saw the tape show resiliency again as support was found at 20ma (twice) and allowed the market to finish green.  

Yes, there is disappointment that a big surprise NFP wasn’t able to the job for a breakout, but it doesn’t necessarily signal we have set our 2009 in highs as we have Dec seasonality as a possibility still after all this FX/ interest rate speculation settles down.    Also, we had plenty of potential headwinds to break 20ma last week, this shouldn’t be forgotten, including the strong dollar rally that couldn’t close the market in the RED.

Simply, we’re in a trading range 1120- 20ma, meaning no more adding to holds and no selling of them until one of these levels is breached.   

Shadowlist

 List below.  Previous link on left side of site did not support this many stocks.

Smaller caps...

While the market continues to lose momo’,  some of the smaller stuff on our shadowlist are definitely outperforming the bigger boys.    Perhaps, this is the reason we've been tilting our 'folio more toward the smaller stuff into year end. (dec 3rd Journal).   It is not a coincident, it's just the fact that smaller stuff have been making new highs while the mega caps are stalling along with the indices and some like AAPL/AMZN are rolling over.    Even with a good NFP report we had last Friday, it's not enough to propel this market to a close above 1115-1120 that we‘re looking for.    It is a bit frustrating if you are an impatient bull,  but we think the underlying market is still pretty good.

First of all, forget about financials!   Yup, as much as we hate to say, we are almost done with the notion of counting on financials to lead this market higher.  We can repeat these Dec 2nd words…“Only disappointment today is the GS/JPM ….  The more we think of it... this sector may lag for rest of year…”

Frankly, given the kind of run they had since March, it's understandable why they have stalled if the idea of hedgies on sidelines since late October is true.   They ran them up and now sit on gains and there is no one to move the bunch.   Other market leaders, such as AMZN  and AAPL , are also showing some sign of fatigue.   Perhaps, this is a message to us that we ought to be looking at the smaller stuff.    When we say smaller stuff, by no means we meant those ultra tiny sub $100 mill market cap thin movers.    Liquidity is still one of the most important factors when putting a play in action here.   Thankfully, most if not all of the smaller plays on our shadowlist have some very good liquidity.   If you've been paying attention, you'd notice that a lot of the action are coming from Chinese plays.    Everything from CAGC  to CTRP  to RINO  are getting some demand.   Today, we had ASIA, a play used to be featured here, announcing that they bought a rival giving the combined entity control of that segment of the business in China.   Stock popped 22% on the news and we've stuck it back up on our trading list today.

With the approach we've had with this market, we've been constantly shifting our weighting from the bigger stuff to smaller stuff and vice versa.   It's obvious that until the market gives us a reason to break out the recent high, our focus has shifted to the smaller stuff. 

Technically, nothing much happened and we are looking for a close over 20ma to stay firm and/ or SP ES futures at Friday’s lows of 1095.

Sideways 4 weeks now..

Today’s drop below 20ma and 1095ES was seemingly inevitable when you look back and consider our highlights of the 3 days of failures to hold intraday highs, which indicated a loss of momentum as the market neared 1120 each time.   Only reason bringing this ‘inevitable’ is next time as traders, if we see such action again we will all have a better idea of what may lie ahead and trade it better.   

As to the seriousness of this break of support at this time,  it may not be so great.  We are still seeing better action in small caps (notably China’s today), Semi's (VECO  nch) acting well and we have a 4 week range low support at ~1085-1082.  Also,  the possibility of bullish December sentiment remains.   We are watching once again the 1085-1082 gap as crucial  support, which most likely needs to be tested.

Stocks had as many as 7-8 ‘small’ headline reasons to move lower.   Most notably, the Greek downgrade which played havoc on the Euro and therefore USD.  Also, more Dubai noise played on the USD.  As we've pointed out this trading hint before and it worked, sometimes in the markets when there is no 'ONE' big fundamental reason,  but many headlines the market comes back up very soon.   So, with that in mind and the 1091 close,  the break of the above supports today may not be all that bad. 

A familiar sight..

After a few days of lost momentum and yesterday's dark candle (possible distribution day), we are yet again at a familiar point (around 1100).   Market tone will improve if we can climb and close over 1100.  Just like the previous THREE times,  we bounced off SPX 1085-1082 gap area as noted yesterday and prevented the market from a technical breakdown.   Although, it might have seemed the market was vulnerable today for a breakdown at 1085 after more sovereign worries hit late premarket, some encouraging signs were present that we wouldn’t.   Notably, momentum names like GS  (let’s see if it can put back to back days before getting giddy) and AAPL  were trading well in the morning and later the >2% decline crude didn‘t break the tape.   Tech  sprinted into the close was a late positive as well.  This is a good set up to follow through, if Jobless claims <400K is nice surprise tomorrow as we had a bullish reversal day overall, technically speaking. 

As we have pointed out, we have been dealing with congestion for 4 weeks now.    A congestion as long as this definitely requires some convincing volume and catalyst to break out of.   Of course, this logic can be applied to both directions and at this point, we are lacking both the super positive/ super negative catalysts to break out of this congestion.     Last Friday was about as close of a good catalyst we had (NFP report) to break out of the high, but we failed at that.

However, not all of the sectors and plays on our screen share the same kind of story as the indicies.    While the index might be at a long congestion,  financial and commodity sector have seen their share of decline for many days now.     Yet, this market is still holding at a reasonable range.    Betting on a rebound from the battered financial or commodity sector can definitely provide a lift to the overall market.   The question is, can we do it?    As far as financial sector is concerned, we have all been made aware that the Govt' is pushing for the banks to exit the TARP program.   This effectively means that all those companies who used TARP need to raise capital in order to pay off the money they borrowed.   Bank of America has announced a hefty secondary and Citi just announced today that they are doing the same.    This is keeping pressure on the entire sector, but this is removing a 'overhang'  as we stated right after BAC’s plan.  

As far as commodity sector is concerned,  we have finally seen some positive action today despite an early higher USD and crude slide.   This action was led b the steels after another AKS  price raise yesterday, this is a positive for our fave steel X  more than other steel names.

Believe it or not,  we have about a week before the holiday week and it's a bit natural to expect the market action to calm down a bit.   After all, no matter how you look at things, this market has had a good year so far.   Nobody, except the Bears want to spoil things and the mentality developed by this market going into this holiday.  This is probably why the sovereign issues are not beating up the market.   The big funds may or may not want to push this market a lot higher going into the year end, but,  we know that they aren't in the selling spirit either.   Bottom line, given what we know, we will continue to trade the same we've been doing and hope to finish the year on a high note.

Running out the clock

Today’s final box score of  +68 Dow/+7 NAZ/+6 SPX looks like the biggest lie ever!.  This had to be the most unproductive and tortuous day in recent trading memory as nothing, absolutely 'nada' in small cap land was getting a bid even with Dow up around 3 digits.   No momentum, no follow through in GS (surprise!!) or AAPL, no leadership anywhere unless you trade Media sectors.   You’d figure traders would jump on this pre holiday period and start to move stocks that are easier to move such as mid-small caps.   Instead to put the day in perspective…DISney  was the highlight stock of the day.   If in the wasn’t for the holiday season ahead,  we’d say this market is in trouble judging by today’s lagging action in the RUT and similarly in the DJIM shadow list from past experiences.   We’ll give the market the benefit of the doubt today, purely and only due the fact it seems everyone is just running out the clock  on the trading year and preparing for 2010.   The idea that traders/ investors are going to all of a sudden get back in the market next week as we get closer to XMAS and end of year is running on fumes.   This just may be the quietest holiday trading season we’re ever going to witness.

The theme is simple and that is traders/investor are reducing risk in the world markets into year end, while still maintaining a hold exposure strategy with stocks.   This means no chasing rallies, no follow through, yet no heavy selling.   This is not conducive to how we trade or any other traders.   This is good for the small  Buffets of the world.   To make matters worse, we are stuck in a trading range and it will take something extraordinary to create a volume breakout over 1115-1120 or breakdown 1085.   We’re watching for transports >4100 and >340 SOX as a necessity for any potential start to a move.    As we all realize,  it’s easier to sell than buy in this environment and this makes the market vulnerable if we get back down to 1085 levels.   A market with no bids now will be a market with sellers and no bids if we can’t hold 1085 as bid/ask spreads widen.   Not to sound negative, just to keep in the back of our minds if we get down to range low's again after seeing today’s brutal thin trade.  

So yeah, today was frustrating!

DJIM 50, 2009

Writing the weekend journal always gives us the "pleasure" of looking back the events that took place in the past week.  Unfortunately, not much on the trading front occurred, but eco' data continued to accelerate forward and that is more important for the longer term trade.   Sometimes, you can see that some trades have been spot on and some trades have been slightly off.    For us, we always take the weekend opportunity to review our trades in the past week and plan our trading strategy for the coming week.    Today, we can't help but notice that our trading strategy and expectation for next week is the exactly same from the past four weeks.    Why?  Perhaps we have been going sideways for just as long.

Is it a bit frustrating or is it a bit disappointing?    At times, we feel a little bit of both.    During the past couple of trading days, we haven't felt this frustrated and disappointed in a long time.    After all, we are human.    You can be in this business for a long time and it still affects you emotionally.

Market has basically been at a standstill for four weeks now.   We haven't been able to break out of the recent high in spite of a series of good Economic data.    However, this market isn't showing any sign of weakness either because there's clearly a strong underlying bid whenever the market seems in "trouble".    This year is coming to an end fast and most traders are definitely setting their eyes onto a 2010 trading plan.    So what does it take to break out of the long congestion?    Well, to us, it all comes down to whether people like to stay in this market or move their funds into somewhere else.    See, we always feel that the equity market is the "long haul" solution for most people.    Right now, earning a decent return from somewhere other than the equity market is simply out of the question for most funds and investors.   We just can't think of an alternative.    The economic recovery may take a long time and the road ahead may be bumpy,  but the most important aspect for us is that the recovery is in progress.    You just can't not afford to be on the sideline, but we may have to wait till 2010 to see the consequences.   We do see a continuation of this year's rally into 2010.

Small caps in the past week have not done anything for us.   Big caps, similarly, have not done much either.   In the coming week, we have a FOMC meeting that will give us a clue on how the Fed reacts to the recent stronger than expected Economic data.    This may potentially be a factor on deciding the fate of the recent market congestion.   Again, we don't expect the Fed to change its tone of language because one month of data does not change the big picture.    It will be important though, to see if there's any slight change in Fed's interpretation of the recent events.

As far as the technical trade,  the range remains and for the immediate the 1100+ close we were looking for heading into Thursday's trading should improve the tone. 

Christmas trading week schedule:

DJIM Christmas trading week schedule:  Markets close 1pm on the 24th/ closed 25th.

DJIM #51 weekend edition for Monday 21st will be the last journal till the following  DJIM #52.

No Journals will be posted for Dec. 22nd & 23rd and shortened Dec 24th trading days as we will be on holidays.   No Alerts will be available during the week.  Site will be available for Forum member trading ideas/ comments.   If market conditions warrant a comment during the week, we will try our best to update.

Thank you.

..getting close

The bullet points to tonight’s Journal relate solely to what we alerted in the afternoon as they are the most important trends visible.  It is also what we were crying for in the late week’s trade when nothing moved in our trading universe, yet stocks like DIS were making new highs and creeping the DOW 30 higher.  Today a wide range of mid-small caps from our shadow list performed very well….from China (HEAT UTA CAGC etc. to Casino’s ..LVS WYNN  (thanks to Dubai 10bln resolution) to commods’, notably steel..X..

First and most important is the small cap index was outperforming, thus DJIM shadowlist and finished the day to multi week highs (+1.5%).   Second, the economy sensitive sectors, notably the transports  up 1.7% and a break to new 52wk high and through >4100.  The SOX  closed right at 340 and is not just yet conclusive of the daily double we are looking for further upside.   Still, we closed at 1114, another new closing high on SPX, yet off 1119 intraday high.   C ’s larger than anticipated capital issue made the financials lag as this left some overhang,  still other important names made a nice recovery later in the day as DB  made positive comments that helped improve the tone and morning’s weakness was bought up.

Close, but no cigar just yet to break north of 1115/1120, setting up for FOMC 16th to settle the score or just the anticipation of not much change to break north before the decision.  At this point, you cannot trade on your heels in anticipation if the FOMC statement language will change,  even after the recent strong jobs report.  Minutes down the road may play a bigger role.   We think Bernanke gave enough clues recently that no big changes will be present (sorry Bears),  yet some tweaks/adjustments should be inevitable after the strong jobs. 

We just can't picture the FOMC in grinch mode and pissing off vacationing important trading players/ desks.

TARPed out...

It seems whenever we are close to breaking out of recent range, there's always "something" that comes out and puts a lid onto the rally.   Although it wasn't a secret over the the past few days,  it became very evident with today's action that the larger than anticipated Citi issuance to be priced within 24-36hrs is acting as an overhang on the market, as is expectation of more supply coming onto the market.   Yes, we are talking about the heavy pressure exerted on the financial companies.  The majority of the weakest stocks on the SP are financials/banks.


We all know that whenever you lend someone money, you're expected to get paid back in time.   If the lender, in this case, is the Govt. of USA, you better hope that you return the money you borrow in a timely manner.    Well,  it had to happen sometime and we have to say it’s probably a pretty good time to do it, as far as the Govt. is concerned.    For the market participants, however, it can be a little annoying at this time of the year.    Just think about it,  we've been congesting for over 4 weeks and recent batch of Economic data has all been above the expectation.    If it wasn't for this "timely" announcement of TARP repayment,  we are sure we'd be way above the recent range already.    Hate it or not, the financial sector is a big role in the overall advancement of our market.    With all these billions that the banks trying to raise via. secondary offering, many institutions simply have to choice to participate.   As a result, managers are selling other financial stocks to raise cash to be part of the offering.    Why do the institutions have to buy those shares, you ask?   Isn't it true that those bank shares are fully priced already and don't have much of a growth quality in them?    Well, they are the banks and they are some of the most influential companies in the Economy and country.    More importantly, those banks have quite a saying among the investment world.    You help me, and we'll help you out, down the road.   If you refuse to participate, the investment bankers and underwriters may remember you for not being a team player down the road.      Again, all this is weighing down on the equity market.

On the other hand,  we are glad that this TARP headwind will be soon over with.   We should be fortunate to know that the banks now can get rid of the "burden" and start fresh on their books.    They are taking advantage of a friendly market and we know there's plenty of appetite out there for equity.   That's very smart of them.    Hopefully, when this is behind us, we can finally get a lift from the market and get us higher.    As far as the rest of market is concerned, small caps, the ones on our list especially, are still exhibiting some very healthy action today, particularly this morning until the last hour when most stocks succumbed to the persistent weakness in financials.  Yes, many of those plays did not make new highs today, but they are all within a very healthy range and there's definitely strength behind alot of them.  In conclusion, today is all about TARP and this will pass and be a positive down the road for the market.

Tomorrow we have the all important FOMC decision and we don't expect much surprise from the Fed.   We also don't expect much reaction from the market either.    This is still a relatively light week before we get to the holiday.    Come Friday, we also have the annual S&P rebalance which we'll see some heavy artificial volume from the market.   For now, be patient and use the low volume spike down to add to any favourite plays that get collateral weakness.

No B'uyers/S'ellers..just a lot more B.S

Despite all the positives since the first time 1115-1120SPX was visited,  the market is still hostage to the same thing we’ve discussed constantly and just last week in ‘Running out the clock‘……“The theme is simple and that is traders/investor are reducing risk in the world markets into year end, while still maintaining a hold exposure strategy with stocks.  This means no chasing rallies, no follow through, yet no heavy selling….. To make matters worse, we are stuck in a trading range and it will take something extraordinary to create a volume breakout over 1115-1120 or breakdown 1085.   We’re watching for transports >4100 and >340 SOX as a necessity for any potential start to a move“.

The positives above include the accumulation of very good eco’ data points, plus, we’ve also have the breakout of transports earlier in the week and the SOX (~344) today to be encouraged about.   Also,  the market has been decoupling from the USD (until late in the day after FOMC statement).   Still, despite these ‘new’ encouraging positives,  we had another failure to hold a close of ~1115-1120 area and/or breakout from this 5 week range due to the lack of conviction buying (no follow through).  The FOMC couldn’t settle the score, still most likely the reminder of expiring facilities brought out some sellers even though this is a known inevitable. 

Unfortunately, AMC, C’s secondary offering will weigh on the market some more.  Reason is simple and that is they priced ‘much lower’ at almost a 20% discount to last Friday’s price and gov’t won’t sell stake at these prices.   So, this is will add to the late day pressure and most likely we will test the recent gap 1097-1099.   We’d look for underlying bid to come here first if tested as we expect any sell- off to be shallow.


Holiday approaches..

At this point, we really have to forget about the hourly fluctuation of this tape and look a bit beyond twas‘ the trading days before Xmas.    Actually, make it a couple of weeks!    It is funny that on some days, you'd hear nothing but good news and on a day like today, you hear nothing but bad news.    Downgrade of Greece, big strength of USD, downgrade of GS/MS,  Citi's low secondary pricing and that slightly disappointing jobless claim, earnings diappointments all contributing to today's decline.    See, it's almost too easy to recap a day's action because all people needed is the "obvious" reason(s) to explain the daily fluctuation.   Again, recall every time if there is not ONE fundamental reason for sell-off, but many like today, the market rebounds very soon.    We also tested 1097-1099  gap noted yesterday as a possibility and it looks like it held.   Well, it's true that bulls want to see this tape higher while the bears want to see the tape lower.     Over the past few weeks, we've had enough drama from both camps claiming the direction on the next move.    So far, no one seems to have an edge.

The fact is, how this year finishes is kind of irrelevant at this point.    Even if we finish right at where it closed today by end of 2009, bulls will claim a victory.     It's just unthinkable that we will move substantially in either direction from where we are today.   In other words, we are pretty locked in a "high close" of SPX for the year.    It doesn't mean that we'd make new highs anytime soon, it simply means that the market will stay relatively close to its recent trading range.    Maybe we at DJIM have been asking for too much, if anything, we really need to have a peaceful Christmas trading season this year.    This is what we think many of the institutions/ traders are doing and as everything else this year according to the ’almanac’ of trading, a xmas rally is probably not going to happen as nothing else has gone the way of tradition.   Institutions/managers are holding enough exposure till the end of year and are positioned for 2010.    In all likelihood, the very next big move will be up.     Why?    We think the biggest piece of puzzle that's falling into the jigsaw is the banks.   When all the fuzz of secondary issues are over,  it definitely puts an ease into people's mind that we don't have to deal with it very soon.    The focus can put squarely back onto earning.  At this point, since many financial stocks have been off quite bit from the recent high, they actually have nothing to very little to lose but everything to gain.    This is why we think Ms. Whitney's negative call on GS/MS may just be a tad late this time.

Speaking of earnings, do people still care about RIMM  or ORCL  earnings AMC these days?    It may be too early to tell, but we think when people do come back from the holiday, the focus will quickly move back to the corporate earnings.   By the way, both RIMM and ORCL came out with solid reports/guidance.   With SPX rebalancing tomorrow, along with option expiration, it might be interesting to see how some rebalance their own portfolio on the last day before the Christmas week.

DJIM #51 2009

Heading into Friday’s trading day, our opening lines surrounded the idea of ignoring the hourly, day fluctuations as we head into the last 9 trading days of the year.  On Friday, the market was all over the place, the ES was up 4-5 pts early premarket than was red or flat by the open.  This whipsaw pattern continued throughout the day.  If you tensed up or panicked as the market penetrated the 1097-1099 by a few pts before noon, you missed a ramp up to 1102 by close.   Point is, this is not the time of the year to throw away stock, but to be long into year-end.   If you see strength all day in NASD (on the heels of RIMM ORCL earnings,) you don’t fret over DOW 40 or SPX being down and think the sell off will continue from the previous 2 days.  Add , banks-brokers having a decent morning and further downside is limited as we had 2 of the most important sec’s performing quite well.  

Only 2 ½ trading days ahead this week,  some window dressing Q end may begin with some recent beat up mega  stocks AAPL AMZN getting a bid .  We think it’s a stock pickers market now and will be in 2010 as lower volatility and the search away from zero returns brings money into risk assets (equities).   Recently, it’s been  more of an ETF type trade, SPY etc with individual stocks not moving in tandem.  Due to this we will continue to seek set up trades, like CAGC recently that popped 10pts or so and than CLW , alerted a few days ago moved from $54 (9ema) on Thursday to 59+ by Friday’s close.  Also trading some AONE, (GMCR OVTI ) off recent low possible turns).

Most importantly, we wish our readers and your families a very Merry Xmas and a great holiday week ahead.  We recently posted our schedule for the week ahead,  we will still try to provide a few bullet points on the markets during the week.

..no storms here...

Last week,  we said the USD / stock market direction trade is decoupling…“Also,  the market has been decoupling from the USD (until late in the day after FOMC statement)”.  

This is most important to today’s bullish trade... USD, 5th straight up day, but stock market rallies nicely, TSY 2-10 steepening curve hits all time high.  Possible allocation shift into equity.

• This is important because the recent trend is done for now.   More importantly, a very steep Treasury curve spelling eco' strength and possible favorable banks- brokers earnings  is the noise today.   This why our JPM GS  black sheep were good kids on the block today.(+2% banks)

• excellent M&A activity, v.good EPS guidance from tech, broad based action, SOX  adding to 340 break (+2%). 

• good to see consistent positive action ALL  day.
• still can`t close over 1115-1120 (aargh!)

• Despite USD strength and commodity linked stocks mostly weak,  the steels trade idea with X  is still going strong. X hit another new recent high +6% with AKS …“As far as commodity sector is concerned,  we have finally seen some positive action today despite an early higher USD and crude slide.   This action was led by the steels after another AKS  price raise yesterday, this is a positive for our fave steel X  more than other steel names.” Dec 10

So a few bullet points, all good, all long into 2010.

DJIM #52 2009

Happy Holidays!   It's our pleasure to write journal #52 for another year.   Like in the past, it's always an emotional thing to look back the past 52 weeks and sum up our year.    We have to say, not many other professions can give you the kind of emotional roller coaster this gig does.   If you are still trading and having fun doing it so, then you should consider yourself a true winner in this profession.

What a year it's been!   "Only if we knew....."  It is somewhat silly to say "had I bought these many shares of XXX stock at XXX month, I could've taken the next few years off".     What is done is already done and there's not much we can do about that.    What we should be doing though, is to reflect upon our own trading action and see if there's anything we can do to improve in the future.    For DJIM, after many discussion among ourselves, we felt the biggest shortcoming for our trading strategy in 2009 was the lack of aggressiveness.    Ever since we saw the turn back in March and started playing the bullish stance with this recovery theme, we have been handicapping ourselves for not being more aggressive in our strategy.   It is true, we have never dealt with a situation like this in our trading career and it's a great learning lesson.    However, we still feel that we could've done better to adapt to the ever changing trading environment.

The biggest change that took place in 2009 at DJIM is the heavy involvement of mega cap and big cap stocks.    For those of you who have followed DJIM since few years back, we are always known for picking the small cap winner at an early stage.    However, given the lack of opportunity in small cap land and ferocious action in the big cap land, we were forced to put much of our focus on the bigger stuff.    The thing about trading the bigger caps is that it requires patience.   Toward the second half of the 2009, we started mixing our portfolio with bigger and smaller stuff so we can take advantage of both world.   

Coming into the last week of trading in 2009, we are sitting above the recent high at SPX 1126.   Although last week isn't exactly a good indication of market direction due to the lack of players(DJIM included), we'd still take the good close as positive vibe heading into the new year.    Last week's action was all about technology stocks.    This is a good sign to us because technology stocks are all about growth.    Hopefully, this trend can spread into other sectors where growth can be found.    Right now, we are very comfortable with the kind of play selection on our shadowlist as they give us a very good idea about which sectors are outperforming.    As far as some of the Chinese plays lagging the recent market rally go, we feel it's a matter of time before they catch up.    This market does tend to rotate among sectors and as long as the plays aren't fallen off the radar, they are still in play.

Next week is another short trading week but we feel more players may come back to "check" on their portfolio.   We won't be surprised that the recent breakout get challenged and we get some mini back and forth action.   All in all, we do expect a quiet week before the real trading starts in new year.   At DJIM, we'd take our time and look through the individual play in our portfolio and decide which plays to be lightened up and which plays to be added.