No B'uyers/S'ellers..just a lot more B.S

Despite all the positives since the first time 1115-1120SPX was visited,  the market is still hostage to the same thing we’ve discussed constantly and just last week in ‘Running out the clock‘……“The theme is simple and that is traders/investor are reducing risk in the world markets into year end, while still maintaining a hold exposure strategy with stocks.  This means no chasing rallies, no follow through, yet no heavy selling….. To make matters worse, we are stuck in a trading range and it will take something extraordinary to create a volume breakout over 1115-1120 or breakdown 1085.   We’re watching for transports >4100 and >340 SOX as a necessity for any potential start to a move“.

The positives above include the accumulation of very good eco’ data points, plus, we’ve also have the breakout of transports earlier in the week and the SOX (~344) today to be encouraged about.   Also,  the market has been decoupling from the USD (until late in the day after FOMC statement).   Still, despite these ‘new’ encouraging positives,  we had another failure to hold a close of ~1115-1120 area and/or breakout from this 5 week range due to the lack of conviction buying (no follow through).  The FOMC couldn’t settle the score, still most likely the reminder of expiring facilities brought out some sellers even though this is a known inevitable. 

Unfortunately, AMC, C’s secondary offering will weigh on the market some more.  Reason is simple and that is they priced ‘much lower’ at almost a 20% discount to last Friday’s price and gov’t won’t sell stake at these prices.   So, this is will add to the late day pressure and most likely we will test the recent gap 1097-1099.   We’d look for underlying bid to come here first if tested as we expect any sell- off to be shallow.