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Saturday
Feb032007

DJIM #6 2007

We thought we'd get this out today while we're all in a sober state before Sunday's game..

Now that we are in February,  we'll save you from listening more about USAP CCF MFW our core of big winners in January.  Well, maybe for a few days only!.   Nothing has changed since the last write ups, so glance back if needed.  Instead on Super Bowl weekend,  we'll discuss some new and some neglected DJIM names...

CNS, this asset management co' has taken over our money after the demise of GROW.  We've been in and out before recent earning and have been waiting for a signal to enter after EPS.  The day came on FED Wednesday (Journal) as it attacked the congestion in the low 48's seen after earning.  A quiet Thursday and then a nice move Friday.  We like, We like as a core hold.

ALGN a buy in alert low 16's off earning that knocked out estimates has playing ping pong between $16 and $17. We've never traded this before and are closely watching trying to figure it out.  As of Friday, we think there is a possibility of some action if it gets just a little bit higher. BT has confirmed this with a chart look as well.   If we don't get a move early in the week, we'll cut out if we don't see some momo established again.

AVZA an alert at the bell Friday that we soon bought into.  We're not so thrilled with techs but a turnaround is seen here with this profitable Q and guidance equal to this Q.   A nice pop from 5.50 to 6.50 before tailing off.  We traded some of AVZA and kept some to see if we can make it 4 for 4 on cheapies following on the footsteps of NWK, TRCR TXG!.  Basically, we are using the same strategy on all of these.  Best to see the latest on the TRCR, TXG's first days.

SILC, is an Israeli tech just small enough to avoid the institution rush to sell off after earning.  We are very familiar with SILC having traded it from the 6's and were in no hurray to pick up till Thursday buy in alert end of day.  This company is what you call a comeback story,  the founder brought in a top manager and marketing exec.. Yep..the stock was less than half a buck ...4 or 5 years ago with a market cap less than a million, now its probably over 100mln.  They reported a .20c Q/.49c on the year.  Maybe this becomes an IBD contender?.

T'N'T, talk about cheap thrills'!.... we have to group these cheap DJIM winners together.  First there was NWK we started in the 6's and alerted last Friday before this 10% week.......then there was TRCR and last week a spec buy in alert at $4 of TGX.  We noted Thursday on TGX and taking profits with a quick 20% in a week,  we did the same on TRCR again Friday which we started at $6'ish and alerted again to look for action in $6.70's last week.    We are looking at these day to day now with bigger pieces being sold.  There is nothing wrong on the fundamental side but we feel they are getting a bit extended short term.  A nice pullback or two, we wouldn't mind in a few of these after the 20-40% moves.

We got the cheap cornered,  but what we really like most is the classy ones to hold tight.  They are expensive in many a traders eyes as some just can't see past a under $10 stock.   We love these types.  We bought the starters in ENR at 83's, the VARI 52's, the VTRU $43's and have been adding along the way.   These have produced nice charts since entry and returns of 3-8% between them quietly.  We 've sold most of the VTRU the last few days after 4pts in 7/8 trading days but we'll look to buy back in if NASD internet names get some love.   If the market continues to go our way, we expect the institutions to want these types of companies on their books and that's why we consider them nice longer term hold potential.   RESP had the best start but now is lagging the bunch.

OEH , the lux lodging stocks have throwing up good numbers (HLT HOT), eventually this hits secondary names and one we started in again is OEH as revenues per available room look to be higher in '07.  If the institutions do their homework, they'll likely want to hold this one into earning this month.  Actually, this one has so much institutional interest(96%) already it might allow them to walk it up.  We are looking for this type of discovery here.  A slow and steady move into earning off these new highs.  If this 96% ownership is too much or the price is a little expensive have a look at..MHGC

MHGC trades under $20 and we started a position late Friday.  Think Super Bowl, think The Delano and then you'll see what MHGC is about.  The chart looks jus' fine and the 25mln float is jus' fine.

It's pretty easy to break up the trading stocks between those you want to hold over the longer term. We have the core which now includes CNS added to CCF USAP MFW,  the last 3 may need to rest here and there as January has been nice to them and us all.  The cheapies are to trade NWK TRCR TGX, you can throw in HRBN AVZA even ALGN till we see a trend or not.  Plus, we have the not so volatile more expensive names such as the ENR VARI VTRU VE.  There is a fave steel play USAP, a fave aluminum play CENX.  A fave oil play in the steady MTRX.. if you want to carry such, a fave Russian telco in GLDN, a potential lux lodging play in MHGC OEH.   Basically there is something for all types of traders/investors.   We're not throwing out the SWIR's out of sight, instead we'll be digging for these types that are not getting love off earning as potential plays in the very near future.