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Monday
Aug272007

One for the disciplined...

Basically, this market behaved just about as orderly as anyone could expect today.   Nobody imagined  we can duplicate the kind of performance we had last week, so the week started on a cautionary note and the day ended that way too.    This is ok!   Perhaps, we need to build upon last week's technical strength and build a stronger base here.    The longer we stay away from that low of a week and half ago, the better odds that we can stage a even more meaningful rally.    So, in order to see how strong this market can hold, we need to test this market.    Notice that we haven't used the word volatility in the last few days.   Indeed, the market's getting less volatile which means we would feel more comfortable of buying some of the strongest stocks on a pullback.     Could this also mean the calm before the storm?   It's possible that we can be setup for a big drop but even a storm would give us at least a couple of hours of heads up.    Right now, we just simply have to deal with the current forecast.

Now some plays...

CRNT, the way it ended today, it's both a good thing and a bad thing.    It's a good thing that it actually followed its usual pattern of being sold off after "getting listed on IBD100".     Well, that means we know the new resistance now and where to start buying back.    It's a bad thing that it didn't start a new leg, after it took on a nch on Friday that is.   Keep in mind, this stock tracks the Naz index pretty well and had the Naz stayed in greeen today, we might've gotten our wish.

WX, if you haven't sold at least some over $27, shame on you!    Does today's drop signify that the runup is over?  Hardly!   It just means that if you haven't taken advantage of the earlier strength and let some go(assuming you got some from last week), then it'd be just another lesson in your book.    We sold most earlier and we'd be looking for a green close to get back in some next few days.    This play is still very active and there's no reason to believe it would just top here.

EJ, this is a new play we added to our watchlist today.   Although we don't think it's nearly as sexy as WX, but being one of the recent Chinese IPO and the way many Chinese ADRs have been behaving lately, we think it has a chance to runup some.   The technical looks good and there's a test coming up to see if it can break out of $19.50, which is around the closing price on its IPO day.

MR, in keeping with the theme, we are putting this one near the top of our watchlist.    It's hard to say if it can break out cleanly but if it does, we feel it can do a multi day runup.    We are looking at around $35.25 as the breakout area.

VMW, this one had only 2 dollar trading range today.   The volatility has come down quite bit on this one and so has the volume.    Last time it had this little volatility and volume, it shot up quite a few points the day after.    Now, we feel it's ready to make a big move.   If it doesn't, we don't mind picking up some more a point or two lower.   In other words, we like this play alot.

DRYS, keep your fingers crossed, tomorrow we'd know if today's breakout is for real or not!