Between now and next week...

There's going to be whole lot of consolidation for this market.    Granted, it's possible that this market can just shoot up again like last week.   The fact is, it takes a market ALOT longer to move up the same amount of points than it takes to move down.     The majority of the time in an upmarket, is spent in the consolidation mode. Just look at a daily chart of the indices for the year.    This time around, we are just glad and maybe a bit fortunate to be in the consolidation mode.      Right now, we are monitoring the financials closely as they may be the catalysts to pull the carpet from this market again.    The good thing is, that it would take some substantial negative news to get the financials to break the recent lows.      It's not an unlikely event but the odds are diminishing if Fed is on the move to help things out.    Market is currently pricing into a 25 basis cut but some are expecting more than that.    What we think is important from the Fed is its language going forward.    Giving less attention to the inflation while paying more attention to the current financial crisis from the Fed is what many market participants wanted.     We'll just have to see how it plays out a week from tomorrow.

Back to this market!   While some of the bigger tech names have been in the profit taking mode, many other plays on our screen showed resiliency.      Keep in mind, plays like AAPL RIMM have almost climbed back to the level before the sell off started.   Some profit taking in those names is understandable given the magnitude of the recovery of those stocks.    Solars, with the exception of FSLR (analyst day), held up really well today.    We can see the result from the speculative action of SOLF alone.     Many China plays held up as well.  LFT is in the initiation phase from the firms.

We are going to continue to see some pullbacks and consolidation from this market and we feel playing conservatively is the best thing to do before the Fed meeting.    Essentially, we want to see if this market can sustain its recent gains and build a base around here.    With a willing Fed and a batch of never ending negative news, we may be able to finish the year on a high note. 

Grinding...

Nobody likes consolidation, especially after a run-up and especially those traders that did not participate.  Simply, it's because they have money to use, it's money on the sidelines waiting for the next tick up.  Also, the traders that did play are antsy to get started up again.  The grinding action is aggravating, frustrating to watch for all but it is a necessary course and most importantly allows stocks to set up for the next kick up.  It is the time to do your homework, separating your potential winners from those that just went on the coattails of others. The next move up, if it happens, will not be of the same vigor and so many of the coattail stocks will probably not set up during this action now and /or participate when the time comes to do so.  The days leading into a FED decision are always quiet in nature as both sides set up or just sit on the sideline as we've said.  These days it just that more quiet as we go through turbulent times.   What this leads to is a game of give and take, in this case meaning trades are very quick in duration as they give a point or two and then take it away just as quick in a few hours or less.   It is not a time for those not watching the market on a full time basis to be entering into positions.  Many of you in this position have taken the right road since the morning Journal on November 8th when we wrote on the possibility of CSCO breaking the camels..donkeys back.  It happened, it broke and those with a longer time period than an hour or a day have been the lucky ones preserving their gains and cash while the rest of us grind in our accounts.  The days of 10 trading choices a day are long gone for the past month, you may get one now and it doesn't last that long. 

"Cash on Hand".  EPS winners are hardly recognized,  just look at the grinding action of a SIGM since earnings day.  It's a different ballgame now and everybody should get used to it until the Bull comes back.

Early last week, we focused on the China stocks and they continue to be the steady lot.  The gains are not huge but you should be happy to get anything on the long side these days.  The Shang/Hang had a good session, but now comes more word out of China shifting and tightening their monetary policy to prevent 'overheating'. This is nothing new, everyone will have a spin though. 

Solars, this used be one big happy family. Meaning when one moved, its brothers and sisters all went for a joyride. As we saw yesterday, this might not the be case now and makes trading this sector harder as it's not so cut and dry.   FLSR had a terrible day, STP was down nicely, while SPWR provided a prime example of what you could do with a intraday day, but serves no purpose for those not able to sit and watch the market all day as it climbed to 133, 5pts off open and almost 10 points off early lows.  On the other side, there is SOLF who seems to have looked in the mirror and saw JRJC, guess that says it all.   A hedgie or two gone wild taking a bunch of gung ho traders with them.

There is no expectation of new plays or earnings plays emerging in a corrective market as they did this summer, one after the other.  It's the nature of the beast.  It's also quiet logical.  This has been the case since early November.  It comes with the territory and you have to live with it, it's as simple as that until the trend changes.  In the meantime, you concentrate on what you know, your watchlist and trade around it and/or preserve your money.  This doesn't require intraday alerts/comments, we all should have our favorites by now from those traded here and know which ones you can trade without making a mess.

Fruits of the consolidation...

We now know why the market wanted to consolidate for the past few days, the market was setting up for action like today.    Ok, we have pointed out in the past few days that consolidation can be frustrating and not fun.    Fortunately, consolidation comprises down and up action.  Hopefully, today's action would make us forget about the frustration we had to endure the last couple of days.    Now lets recap some action here...    First, some of our members would like to know what's the point of recapping everyday's action at the end?    For starter, recapping the action would give us an idea what events and action transpired during the day so we can better prepare for trading ahead.    We can look forward to the plays that were doing well today, assuming good action gets some kind of follow through.    Secondly, by recapping the action, we'd have an idea exactly where we are in this market.     Compare to yesterday, today's events are much more exciting and meaningful, in our opinion.     By not having to review the action at the end of the day, we would simply start the next trading day half blindly, in a way.  It all depends how one uses the Journal, for many its been a learning tool of our methodology, our frame of mind.  This morning the Journal might have reminded you of SIGM recently noted here as a buy the dip earnings play prospect.  It had a great day.   Our lead was the China's and that we are still trading the lot of them.  This has worked for a week and today it spread to the more speculative lot.  Makes sense doesn't it that this part might try to get into the act sooner than later.  We also said the Solars heading into today are getting harder to see as an easy trade, today that spilled further as most finished lower than their opening price in a fast market.  Bascially, it's all in your interpretation of how you take the Journal in.  To most the Journal is 'leading' them into the next trading day, this includes recapping.

So it this market more of the same?   Are we expecting some better action in the near term or what?    We think today's the proof that we CAN definitely get some good trading action in the next little while.    This time, Fed is on our side and recent oversold condition coupled with the seasonal factor can and should propel this market to gain some upside ground.

Many big technology stocks did well today!  It's always good to see companies like INTC MSFT AAPL to carry the index weight.    As long as the Indices are in the firm green territory, we as traders can pick off little ones to make our play.

SIGM/PCLN/VIP/MBT, these are few of the latest earning winners we are busy trading today.    We have mentioned all of these before on the site, (a few for over a year) and they all notched a nch today.    This goes to show that even in a crisis environment, we can still have earning plays that stand out from the crowd.   We like all of their action and we'd expect follow through from them if the market keeps up the good spirit.    We'd also wouldn't mind buying these on dips as long as the 9 ema isn't breached.  If you want firm coverage reports on MBT- Russian mobile and VIP following it's earnings, send an email for the PDF's.

WDC, we noted this one following earnings Sept 11 on a premarket Journal note.  The stock was $22-23, today it hit $31 after raising its profit forecast including December.  In our view this a huge revision and a good market will definitely take note.  On the other hand this stock has performed well in rocky times.

China Plays, from early last week, we'd pointed out that many Chinese plays seemed to be stabilizing and we'd be getting our foot back into some of these names.   Today, the entire sector lit the fire and all of the names on our watchlist have done heck of a job with some speculative leading the charge.     Our strategy here is that since it's the entire sector move, we can not afford NOT to play even the speculative ones.  Just to point a few out, we still like EDU LFT STV WX CMED... as the quality ones but the speculative ones like CHNR JRJC EFUT... are also on our playlist.   Now we believe the move we seen today may last a few days because the last time we recalled, China sector move doesn't just pop one day and die.  Keep you eyes open for a possibility of more.

Solars, this is the area which we were concerned about heading into the day as per Journal.   We are a little concerned over the somewhat overheated action from the speculative solar plays but as well as the looming energy bill.    There's a very likelihood that there's going to be a "sell on news" reaction.   We'd like to see how some plays react to the news first before venture our way back in.    Because of many other plays out there today, we all can afford to take a little cautious attitude toward this sector for now. 

No second chance...

It seems these days, the market isn't giving people much of a second chance to some of the speculative plays.    Of course, if you aren't into them, then there's really nothing to worry about.    Market opened weak but ended way higher today.   Again, we have the big techs and financial companies to thank for.   While indices seem to have a blast today, it's actually quite difficult for us to find good plays from the smallcap land.    Now only if we knew how this market would turn out, we'd have ditched all our small ones and we'd be gunning for the big ones.    Unfortunately what's happened has happened and that is something we just have to live with.

Here are some plays we are tracking/playing..

China Plays, most of the China plays did not really participate the rally with the exception of EJ.   Speaking of EJ, even though it's had a really good day but we think the run-up is a little extended at this point and we'd wait for a better entry point.    While most of the quality China plays stayed relatively unchanged, some of the speculative ones are just way more wild and did not fare that well.    Is this the end of the sector move?   We don't think so!   However, we should point out that you still have to distinguish the good quality earning related China plays from the speculative ones. VISN, is a quite cheap for an IPO, unfortunately after initial 10% run gave it up and starts from scratch.

Solar Plays, with the exception of JASO, pretty much all of them went down today.   We think it's best for them to find their footing for another day or two before taking a look at some of the setups.    There's absolutely no rush to buy them right away.  Still, note two buy ratings on SPWR/YGE this morning to stick in the overall picture.

MA/ISRG,  out of the expensive names, these two(recent eps winner) managed to not only break out, but notched a nch.    We chased some during the day and feel they are very much part of any index rally.

PSEM, this little technology company finally made a move today.   It's currently sitting right near the previous high.   It's going to be interesting to see if it can really bust out this time or not.   We got our finger on the trigger and if it does kick it up,  we'd be right there to chase some.

DJIM #49 2007

Tis the giving season and Tuesday afternoon,  we're gonna get some in the way of a FOMC rate cut.   Following Fridays data, a .25pt cut is the most likely outcome, but there are enough still in the .50pt camp.  One thing is for certain is the decision won't be unanimous as we'd all like and all eyes and ears will be fixed on the statement attached.  Unless there is a knockout grinch punch to the market in the language, we think the market will move forward and set it's course on continuing the recent rally into the holidays and New Year.   Basically,  just get this over with and lets move on the heels of last weeks bullish days as the indices finished near the weeks highs.  Last week many quality stocks continued to get out of their bases with many more bouncing off the 50MA with follow through days.   Also, recent quality earning stocks showed some life as quiet a few closely followed at DJIM broke to new highs during the week.    They include...

MA, ISRG, AAPL,  we have always preached set ups with NCH's in place or in sight.  The market started to provide these trading opportunities once again after a long lull as these leading stocks in the past regained their lofty positions.  That's the kind of action any growth investor or just any trader wants to see and trade. 

VIP, MBT, SIGM, WDC, PSEM are the other recent EPS stocks that reported very good numbers and are now being recognized and given spurts of buying leading to NCH's almost daily.   MBT and VIP have an overweight initiation out from Lehman this morning.

SOLARS, the picture was not so clear heading into Fridays trade, but as we noted there were a couple of buy upgrades on YGE and SPWR to possibly play a part ahead of the trading day.  These upgrades definitely fueled the solars up again as many had nice days, including JASO again and STP...FSLR ran up on rumors of a contract.  We've seen the firms 'lead' this sector forward before when they start with upgrades, initiations. We might have some of that starting up once again.

Our closely followed China stocks LFT, STV, WX, EJ, EDU snailed to a 2nd consecutive week of gains since we turned our focus back on them. The volatility seems to have been removed for the time being and we started to call this group of stocks a Mutual Fund as they creep slowly higher and higher.

After weeks of trying to find a decent play, the market has started to give us plays that fit our methodology, eg NCH's and we welcome it and will concentrate on the above sorts with the usual sector (solar, china, shippers) tossed in.  It is a time for all of us to look at the 52week high lists and find more names that might provide a good trade while they trade at these levels.  You will start to find many former DJIM site names thrown around in this crop of stocks as you do your nightly homework...BOOM FWLT FSTR GEF LIFC PTT RICK TXT VE WGOV etc.   You want to trade strength and get out of any bad habits you've found yourselves in trying to trade a corrective market, such as bounces etc.  This may really be the time once again,  if we clear tomorrows FOMC hurdle in one piece.

Pre Fed

Many are lead to believe that last couple of day's action is due to the anticipation of a Fed rate cut tomorrow.     We think it's a combination of many factors that are setting us up for some really good action in this month.    However, Fed is still Fed and anything they say tomorrow can have a dramatic impact on the course of this rally.      As far as we are concerned, as long as the Fed addresses the current financial environment we are in and it's willing to adjust its policy to help the market, we basically get a green light for the next few weeks.    If for some reason the market sells off the Fed news, and especially if it's some good news, we wouldn't be hesitate to buy into the dip. 

Now the playlist...

Over 90% of the stocks on our watchlist are green and we just have to be very encouraged by the market action today, but FOMC on deck!!.  We'll get into detail of some of the action here,

Solars,  this group has been on fire since the Energy bill.   If you miss the low of the group on Thursday, then Friday would've been just fine getting into some of the popular names.    Today we are getting some really good follow through on top of the good action from last Friday.   Our top favourites are now STP LDK JASO FSLR...  we are also trading SOLF CSIQ as well to throw in the mix.     

China Plays, we are actually surprised that some of the more speculative names are still holding up and showing signs of perkiness.   This leads us to believe that there's definitely more pop to come with the whole sector.    The quality ones we like had some mixed action today with STV WX outshining EJ LFT by a wide margin.     STV has a particularly nice breakout out of the recent consolidation off very good volume and we think it has potential to return to its former glory.    We are definitely trading more aggressively toward STV after today's action.   With LFT, the consolidation is still between $23.50 and $25 and it may require some more time to really break out of it clean.

EPS winners, MELI had a very nice breakout today on very healthy volume.  It notched a nch and sits well above the recent range.    We were really hoping for an intraday dip to buy some more but it just never came.   It looks like we may just have to chase it if we want to get some more of this.  SIGM MA VIP MBT continue to trade with this market.   One thing we have to remind people that the eps winners do trade in a rational manner so the further away they move from 9 ema, the more likely that they'd stall and pullback.    We simply have to be a little patient with the eps winners and have a bit longer term perspective.     

The bottom line, this market still feels unconvinced for a rally and many people are still underinvested.   Alot of negative news are being absorbed by this market recently and all these are all considered bullish sign.    We have LEH releasing earning this Thursday and that may give us a clue of how the financial world will react, which is very important to gauge the market sentiment.

..digest

..digest...sleep on it and come back the next day with a clearer head is the best remedy for yesterdays extreme sell off.   The FED clearly disappointed the trader, the investor by not taking sufficient action on the biggest problem and that is dealing with the financial mess that is out there.  By not cutting the 'discount rate' another .25pts, the liquidity needs were not helped.  Basically, the FED didn't address the markets biggest weakness in many minds and went to RICK's cabaret, letting the markets get hammered.  How else do you explain the only stock standing in the green on our watchlists being RICK!. Must be the only recession proof place in town!.  So, in one big swoop we rinsed the market of a lot of points...344 on the DJIA, 83 on the NASD and another 46 on SPX off yesterdays highs.  Numbers like that suggest a potential bounce and pre-fed we said we'd look to do some dip buying on a sell off, which we did but not too aggressively.   Lots of recent favorites like MA were hard to avoid on sale, but you may consider selling any stock if you get a recovery attempt move or gap.

On the technical side there is no great damage, but what we need to see is the indices recover and hold 13500 on the DJIA and 2700 on the NASD to start thinking of accumulating positions of substance.   The markets were in overbought territory, the noise of a sell off on the FED was echoed over and over recently..add a few surprises in the actual decision and you have a sell off of magnitude.  Fortunately, we are all used to negative 250/50 days on the indices for the past few months and can deal with yesterday without yelling fire and running away from the market.  Hey....maybe this was healthy if thoughts of prolonging this recent rally into the New Year cross your mind.  Time will tell, but in the very short term we need the market to show us something...some more of that grit and determination would be nice before we go diving in with any force. 

A new day with different drama....

One way or the other, it's not so easy to take advantage of this headline driven market.    Extreme emotion leads to extreme volatility and we have just witnessed two of the most volatile trading days.     Now that the Fed thing is over, we can move on and focus on events that'll shape up the rest of the year.   The big picture is that we are still in a much better shape than a month ago.   Regardless how you judge Fed's recent decision, Fed is doing something to help out the credit crunch by addressing the liquidity issues.    That to us, this the encouragement this market needs, but we have to see if it's enough.  Financial stocks are just weighing in on this market, day in and day out too much.    Soon we will get some good insights off reports from LEH and GS.   Hopefully, these two would provide the kind of certainty this market needs to get some stability from the sector.

Solar plays,  basically you just can't go through a trading day without playing these it seems.   Crude broke $90 signalling a possible technical recovery and that should bode well for the solar group again.   LDK has been active the last couple of days and think this one needs to catch up to others in terms of valuation in light of the recent development and therefore might have more leg room.  SOLF is also becoming one of our favourite to trade along with STP JASO and FSLR.  Again, remember we noted the upgrades seen recently as a possible prelude to their action as we've seen in the past.   At least, 2 more are out this morning, including one on FSLR with a $300+ target.

GXDX, this is a biotech co. similar to WX and it's based in U.S noted in the forum Oct 31.   It came out with an eps report tonight and we think it's a very good report that showed a tremendous growth rate.    The issue size was only 5 million shares.    This one also doesn't trade a lot so the volatility can be high when it comes to trading.    Knowing what they just reported, we are putting this one on our active playlist and will add incrementally when opportunity comes.  There hasn't been many good eps report from small caps lately, so this is definitely refreshing.  It will be interesting to see if there is interest in this kind of play from the market.

Turned out the prudent thing to do yesterday was to sell the gap and not just consider it as we noted in yesterdays pre trading note. The swings are wild and you have to your trading hat on or lose all or most of your gains as the market digests the rate cut and the follow up liquidity plan.   It may take a few more days and it's best we wait it out to see a trend emerge.   Again.. .."what we need to see is the indices recover and hold 13500 on the DJIA and 2700 on the NASD to start thinking of accumulating positions of substance".  This would be a start!

..some calmness

Seems many gurus are writing off the market saying this latest liquidity plan is just for the big boyz to get out higher and fry us all.  Hell, many have predicting doom since summer or years for different crisis situations, but we just keep playing along with many of you as we have done so for 3-4-5 years.   We love conspiracy theories , but we don't trade them unless they are ours and we won't give up now thinking this market can trade up still.   Maybe , we are too simple and too simple in our methodology... We/You are not giving our neighbour a loan and they won't give us one and so the banks have the same situation.   They don't trust each other and so the liquidity plan comes to fruition.   Simple...  someone steps in and helps both sides.   We are in favor of this intervention and think this will help soothe out things eventually.   It's a start.   The last time anything close to this being done  on such a worldly scale was after 9-11.  That puts things into perspective in more than one sense.   The severity of it all now and the ability to fight back is there as we've seen before.    Day by day things will clear... if the market can't hold a13500 DJIA or NASD 2700 close in the short term, we'd start to worry more from a technical standpoint.   But...until then we are ready to jump on Santa's sleigh and go for a ride with a few of his helpers.     Well, the DJIA did hold 13500 (barely) and the NASD is still some 30 pts away, but we all know what 30 points is like and that's a half day of a run these days.    The way RIMM, AAPL BIDU performed makes it even more plausible soon and therefore an opportunity to strike these names up again will come.   We are encouraged by today's action, the lows of Wednesday were hardly touched on the indices and we worked higher into the close.  A little grit and determination was seen today and everything held together after yesterdays big intraday slide.  ' If ' we get a manipulated CPI number premarket, we could have an added ingredient for a move starting for next week.   We are getting to the biggest time of the year for manipulation as the volume will soon start to dry up.  This is the time for all the manipulators to step forward..big and small and boost year end totals on all boards.    Surely, a BIG lot(s) will be there to help out the market.  You help us out with liquidity....we'll help up you in other ways, guys!.. told you we love conspiracy theories, we just like'em on the bull side.

LRN,   K12, how cool a name is that!;).  Anything/anybody to help the kids from Kindergarten to grade 12 surf online other than us is a great concept!.  Okay, so its a little more than that as LRN offers a 'real' curriculum of educational services, lessons.    A virtual public skool alternative to supplement the kids education.  A recent educational IPO, APEI serving the military/law enforcement had a big run since it IPO'd as we noted with LRN today in the $22's.  It had nice full day trading to the $25's and we were trading/taking positions throughout the day.  A 6mln float makes it attractive to boot.

MELI, a long standing citizen here and a recent alert this week at $45 was making some people very happy last night as it traded to $58 AH's off Cramer.  It's only a recap if you are not trading it this week as it's held its ground near highs through all the volatility we've seen.  We have always liked to sell to an incoming herd from another source.

MA,  another long term play here and again highlighted a few times this week hit a NCH with a $224 close with a converted touchdown and field goal day..10pts. No yellow flags with this machine.

Solars, we highlighted this bunch into the trading day and it was really the only 'group' action going with FSLR, ESLR leading the way off the upgrades mentioned in the morning.  JASO, SOLF, YGE all held green as well and if we keep seeing this group up, STP, SPWR will join the ranks again.

MBT, VIP, after making NCH's recently they have tested 9ema and seem ready to resume if the market gives them a chance.   The telecom sector has been one of the leaders on bad days in the market and with Russia's political picture clearing up it should bode well for these ADR's soon enough.  These have always held up during the rocky days of November.    ROS,  a secondary play on the above when we started coverage back who knows when is a clear beneficiary as its practically a 'state owned co'.  The other two offer volume and so we'd continue playing with them.

RICK, so this is where all the bankers are striking up liquidity plans these days!..No wonder they have no $$$$.  This one just keeps on doing a slow dance up.

GXDX,  no big surprise the traders didn't show up the day after EPS.  We've outlined numerous times recently that small/ float EPS plays are not getting the love immediately as we have been used to in the past. The chasers are still not there as we saw today and since this stock had a very nice pre earnings run, its really not surprising to see profit taking come in.  Keep it up there on your potential playlist.  A pullback always balances your risk/reward out.

Oh yeah, RIGL,  wait till phase 3 comes out, it will go to $100..;).  The beauty of this action is there's crazy foolish money out there still to play feverishly and we like that.   Along with interest seen in the IPO LRN,  it gives us more hope in the coming weeks for plays as there is a willingness to put money to work.  It's sporadic now and sometimes doesn't last too long , but that could all change as spreads widen in more names when the volume starts to dry up into the New Year.

DJIM 50, 2007

As the year winds down with this upcoming last full week of trading, we find ourselves at the crossroads here.    We are here because there's definitely two distinct possibility in front of us.    One possibility is that we roll over from the recent gain and try to test the November low and who knows what happens after that.   The other possibility is that we stop going down right about here and churn our way upwards, in an apparent and somewhat violent manner.

Lets talk about what happened in the past week first.    The action from past week is purely centered around Fed decision and we can understand how market participants feel after the decision.  They have a hangover.  In our opinion, unless Fed surprised us in the optimistic way, this market would get sold off regardless because  as we had come off such a good 2 week rally from the November low.     In terms of Fed's decision, in our opinion, they are doing the right thing even though it may not be "instant market friendly" kind of decision.     The bottom line with the Fed is that we have the Fed on our side still.    They aren't being ignorant contrary to many people's thought and they are simply being patient to help out the financial crisis.   This of course isn't being bought by everyone because many wanted that "magical potion" from Fed that can solve all of the problems once and for all.    Believe it or not, many if not most of the problems associated within the financial sector still need to be addressed and resolved by the companies involved themselves.   In other words, market needs to do the most to bail themselves out.    This is only healthy in the long run.

Too many people are too negative toward this market and too many shorts have piled onto the recent upward momentum in our opinion.    Basically, we believe that when you want to trade this market down, you definitely want to do it with good timing.   First of all, you want to go negative really hard at the beginning of the crisis and in a seasonally slow environment.    Right now, there's definitely no saying that we are at the end of the crisis but we are definitely far from the beginning of it.     People are fully aware what the problem is and measures are being put in place to correct the problem.   It does take time.    However, you don't want to go really short when things are being fixed, slowly but surely.  

So against all odds, we think the second possibility is that this market churns upwards has much better probability.    In order for this market to dive and take out the November low, you'd need some really disastrous news or the proof that we'd go into a real recession to do that.    Somehow we just don't think any of those two things is in the cards at this moment.    At least, not during the Christmas shopping season, we might add.

Earnings Earnings and Earnings!    What more confident catalyst you need other than earnings?    We have them coming up and the way this market has been setup, anything better than the lowest expectation can cause a good rally upside.   Of course, that also depends from company to company and sector to sector.     Last week we had LEH reporting and we have to say markets reaction has been very positive, despite the drop of all major indices.     In the coming week, we have GS reporting and this is considered best financial house there is.    Again, the way it sets up is that the shorts wanted to push it below $203, which is the recent low and knock it down for good.     If this stock is at $240, we say the odds of getting sold off is pretty high regardless the earning number.    In our opinion, the trade definitely calls for the upside when the number is released.     The next important report in the coming week is RIMM.    In our opinion, the recent 20% drop from the $122 area took away any bearish surprise.    It feels that shorts have pressed a bit too early going into this report on the heels of a couple of firms analysis of RIMM.    It is "unlikely" that RIMM would report a slowdown in its business and we can almost ensure a massive squeeze if it doesn't play out the way bearish camp wanted.     There are quite few other reports in the coming week which include  NKE FDX MS BSC BBY ACN JOYG GIS... quite a few different and important sectors.   This should provide us a good picture whether our economy is heading into a recession or not.     Again, we believe in our thesis that market rarely goes into a crash into an earning season.     Basically, we'd be much more nervous being short than long at this point.

Now some plays....

Solars, is it us or does it feel that most if not all solar stocks are being setup conspicuously on Friday?   Just look at some the chart setup from some of the popular names and we swear they are all setting up for a good run-up in the coming week.     By the way, they are being setup(in a very positive way) on a day that all indices dropped well over 1%.    This is simply amazing which tells us that people want to own these things at year end.   Basically we still have a bit over a week to window dress these names and it isn't a myth that the best stocks get owned at the end of the year to show them on your book.

STP/FSLR/JASO/LDK,  these are what we considered the favourite solar names to trade last week.    With the exception of LDK EPS Dec.19th, which we are still waiting for the audit report to cast away the cloud, a start today as (independent Audit out according to LDK concluded allegations incorrect), the other three are being setup superbly going into next week.  YGE, IBD #92 is also enjoying a nice trend change.

SOLF/CSIQ, these secondary solar plays are also setting up nicely, especially with SOLF.  The 9 ema has just caught up with SOLF and the next move might be big and will likely get this thing out of the recent trend.   With the entire solar sector heating up, we feel the move is very likely to be up than down.  ESLR had 2 nice days after Thursday premkt upgrade and follow up news.

Asian stocks, as seen in charts this weekend they took the week off after a 2 week recovery, following overnight numbers from HANG/SHANG they will most likely continue to be out of favor to start the week. 

LRN, 300k volume and a higher finish on day 2 of trading. If this thing had any volume Friday, it might be already looking at the high $20's.

MELI, this is the play you only can wish we'd all bought more of before Cramers mention.   On the other hand, this is no longer a strange name to traders and with its tighter float and story, anything is possible.    Basically, this one is better now with Cramers exposure than before which is largely an unknown stock to many.    The trading in this one is rather volatile so we'd continue to be inclined to buy on intraday dip and sell into strength.   It has worked beautifully in the past so there's no reason to change the strategy with this stock.  The trend is firmly to the upside since the break at $45.

RIMM, we've been buying some late in the week looking to hold up to the earning report and then play after its EPS is digested.    Again, in either case, if this company reports a good number or the market rallies, we'd be all over this beta name along with other heavy favourites like BIDU AAPL GOOG etc.

VIP, MBT..also seemingly against all odds these were green on Friday, closing around highs of day.  Another Russian stock, WBD pulled off another impressive Q with what looks like their best EPS number yet. Again as we 've seen too many times lately, nobody was interested in earnngs, this time because of CPI data headline.   Simply, you had pockets of strength to buy...the solars, the biotech, the russian stocks late in the week despite the volatility to the downside in the overall market.

Bottom line, this is the time where you have to be playing the most popular stocks.   We have seen it that the small caps aren't exactly working so you might as well join the crowd.   The more crowded it gets with a good mover, the better.    We can even see it with some of the recent story stocks from the biotech sector like RIGL SVNT BMRN etc.   You trade what others trade, when a stock is showing upside momentum that is.   Only then, you'd have a chance to outperform others.

..does misery love company?

Well...we'll know soon enough if the company comes in the form of real companies producing earnings not up to snuff!.  GS, FDX,RIMM!.  These companies will paint a broad picture from the financials to the transports to technology.  Everything that is needed to click the market, one way or another.  The lights are dimmed after the last few sessions, yesterday just seemed like a repeat of Friday.  Every technical level has been broken that we have followed here, yesterday was the 13300 DJIA level being taken out with authority as practically sector was down.  Simply, there is no leadership emerging and the only reasons not to abandon the market is the fact(s),  we are waiting for earnings, hopefully to spark the market, the seasonal factor to move the market up and the fact volume is low on this sell off, which also allows for opportunity for a sizeable swing(s) to the upside on the same low volume.   Let's add one more and that is the proverbial bounce possibility now.  Santa has enough things in his sleigh to run over the Bears still, but he needs help from companies announcing earnings this week first.  Everything in this 'market mall' is for sale this holiday season as of yesterdays close.....meaning almost everything is back below 9ema, even the stocks showing upside momentum late last week in a weak market were hammered yesterday.  If a buying opportunity presents itself it is not for the long term, we'd make sure the item we buy has a good return policy as we are sellers intraday/close most likely.  By now, we all have our favorites that can move on a rebound from experience gained over the last few months, we'd stick to what you know and have had success with in the past playing such games.

Same tale, different spin...

While last month the market was dragged down by subprime woes, this time it's dragged down by fear of recession and inflation.   Basically, bears aren't ready to press the "we are done" button and leave this market in peace.   Some of the worries that have been pointed out in the media, during the last few days, are nothing but worries, at this point.    We feel that even though there's a possibility of recession, it won't be likely known for a while, and pricing the market assuming there's a recession on the way may not be the smartest thing to do.   We definitely need further evidence before jumping into such a conclusion.

However, it's enough to cause jitters among the market participants and the technical picture isn't good at this moment.    Basically, whatever the upside momentum we had prior to the Fed announcement is no longer there anymore,the market got rolled over.    We have broken some short term support and today's pop is just to get off the recent oversold condition.     As a matter of fact,  Q's almost reached November low intraday.   SPX isn't quite at the November low yet but we feel the probability of testing it has increased substantially.    Unfortunately, any testing of markets recent low's will probably be pushed into January of the coming year.    Can this negative momentum be stopped still?   We think it's possible but it pretty much has to rely on two things.    One, the financials have to stop going down and react positively to news (good and bad).   Two, some of the key companies have to come through during this earning quarter.   They have to demonstrate that not only there's no hint of a global slowdown, everything is still firing on all cylinders on the growth front.    Make people believers!     With those two things in place, we can probably come out of this downturn and establish a rally which we've been long wishing for.     As you can see, we still have a few weeks before we know for sure where this market wants to take us.

In the meantime, there are still short term trades that can be played among many of the familiar ones.     Solars, we'd continue to trade this sector aggressively and we'll stay this way until the next round of earning reports.    We'd try to buy more often on the dip these days as oppose to chasing the breakouts.     FSLR had a really nice bounce off yesterday's selloff.    LDK is inching up ahead of the 3rd q earing report Wednesday.  As far as CSIQ goes, someone just lit a fire underneath it midday. 

Some of the foreign stocks also did well, especially WBD, a buyer was definitely present as any sizeable lot was taken out pushing to highs of day. Remeber this one is volatile, but usually worth the headache (look for possible interest to come in $124 area for further upside as noted before). VIP, MBT came out with subscriber metrics yesterday and are hitting on all cyclinders.  If the GLDN combination occurs this is a definite positive to VIP and its share price as well.  We'd continuing to trade these as there is less exposure to the problems here.

The bottom line, we have to differentiate the overall market direction from the individual trading opportunity.   It means that although the market trend is uncertain or downward biased,  we can still find good setups still for short term trading.    The key is to stay flexible and be ready to sell when things don't go your way.    The end trading result may not be like holding small cap eps winners in the past, but it is a way of survival in this particularly difficult trading environment. 

..firmer

Despite what at times felt like a volatile day, it came on the expected diminishing holiday volume and therefore some intraday expected yo-yo swings occurred on the indices.  At the end, the action is firmer for the last 2 days and unless the down swings are on a bad headline with volume, it is best to stick it out with some positions and look forward to the XMAS shortened week and a possible rally of sorts.  A few things occuring the past few days are indicative of a whacked out market, this is best shown in the different reactions to GS strong earnings and MS's blow up.  But this could be good news.  Possibly the best thing is bad news from the financials may be getting priced in on some stocks and confidence is climbing that the firms are finally throwing everything out including the kitchen sink and coming clean.   Now only..if the market can shake the ugly numbers from BSC due out and we'll have a clearer picture as to where we are going.   It's confession time for all these boys.    We've attached the importance of earnings this week to possibly set or at least curtail the latest slide, last night Oracle reported a big quarter on all fronts. This includes getting it finally right on what is usually their very so-so Q year after year.  Is this a forward to what we may expect from more tech firms ahead or is it just a anomaly of sorts?.  It does bring a potential boost today to techs, but this might be short lived as RIMM reports AH.  Let's hope RIMM makes it back to back, other wise this Oracle number will be forgotten quickly.  In the meantime today,  FDX , BSC, ORCL can lead the way in 3 essential  areas to a very big day....let's wait and see.

LRN,  if you took your eye off K12 yesterday, you found a surprise on your next look as it probably jumped another $1 or more.  We said this might see high 20's if it just got some volume.  Guess what....it didn't need it as hit $30 and up almost 50% since we alerted the buy in the first hour of it's debut last week.  Only regret and you could blame the weak market last week is we didnt go crazy into it.             Ah..the great trader/investor motto...could've..should've..would've!.  lol..    A pullback would be great as its up 50% from its opening price, but it just might be getting discovered so its best to watch the volume as a pullback might not be so swift for your first entry or a re-entry.   We've taken most off the table and will look for the re-entry, in the meantime we dipped into APEI after it passed it's initiation day with a few nice buy targets.  You can only dip as this is trading lightly and has only a 4.5 mln float.   With all the messes out there lately, we think these educational online plays are under radar.   Actually, they are the perfect stocks for a holiday buying frenzy if the manipulators want to drive a stock or two higher next week as in years past.

WBD, another recent buy in alert after earnings. This followed what we outlined here the past week quite well, it did look right the day before at 121 in a market where nothing was looking right and it hurled $124 for another entry before ticking up to 130.  A nice run and it did hold up well, but as we've repeated over and over lately....take what a stock gives you and walk away. In this case it was more than enough.  We'll look for re-entry here as well.  The volume has not come in yet as it has in the past on runs and so we'll look for it with a break over yesterdays high levels.

MBT,  we've been spreading out our risk lately and this means using foreign ADR plays (VIP,WBD as well), in specific regions like Russia. MBT, looked very strong yesterday and it held its break of the recent channel top.  This one can move fast and we are eyeing it back to recent highs.

MA, really beaten up the last few days on the Euro ruling for months and months to come.  In the near term this should affect MA's profits as it does not cover the majority (over 90%)  of MA's volume. Ma should get back on track after all this noise is digested.

Solars,  LDK guided EPS in-line, a downgrade and what you might have is some pressure on solars.  We'd use any negative reaction spreading to take advantage of the dips in the usual suspects.  These plays are not going away by a longshot in the short term.

....no rush

The erratic trading continued most of the day as the market chewed on anything and everything.  Included was the expected Bear Stearns debacle, the FDX earnings and the ORCL strong report and a few Eco numbers.  Stir'em up and you get more of the same as far as the trading environment is concerned this week on lighter volume.  This means early firm action, a loss of momentum mid day and then a modest rally late in the day.  What you simply have is the financials finding a way to put a drag on the market and the half ass end of year rally the market wants.  You can see this loud and clear as the NASD/RUT were making new highs for the week while the DJIA/SPX lagged behind...but this should change as the natural thing to do is play catch up and close the gap, especially since RIMM will lead the NASD pack early on.  This could provide a better technical picture for the lagging indices come next week, even if the financials don't want to help out.  The premise here the past week was the importance of earnings coming out and being a catalyst.  This round of reports won't take us out of the cold in respect to the 'big picture' of where the market is going, but what it does is... give us all hope that is we will have something to look forward to in January as the official earnings season kicks off.  The reason is RIMM showed something we haven't seen in ages and that is a post earnings run, herd reaction and not the usual sell off.   Unfortunately, the report falls on quad witching Friday to cloud the picture.  Throw in the holiday trading aspect this Friday and we won't get a true feel for where RIMM is going just yet...up or down from today's action.   If you didn't flip it around AH's yesterday or are looking to sell early today, we'd then take a cautious stance today at this $120+ price.   This also holds true for other stocks as well, we are unlikely to chase new plays today unless a whole sector,  such as the Solars want to take the lead.  No Rush today, let's see how it all materializes later in the day.    In the meantime, we'll continue to trade and watch for further setups from what we have concentrated this week on and that is the WBD LRN VIP MBT etc. 

Let's hope the ORCL/RIMM reports start to get the talking heads in pre-earnings mode and have some attention turn away from the subprime mess and on to earnings.   This mess ain't going away for years and we need to move on. 

DJIM 51, 2007

The truth is, when calling for an overall market direction, technical analysis alone is just not enough.    This market has been volatile and it's been difficult calling a one way action for both the bulls and bears.    We have definitely been in a zigzagging mode during the past few weeks.  Since the late November rally, you can say we've been stuck in a pretty big trading range with some wild swings both ways.    Fortunately, we think we may be near a point where we can finally get some meaningful action going.  At this point we are getting what we wanted last week despite the market looking technically troubled at that stage.... .."...the only reasons not to abandon the market is the fact(s),  we are waiting for earnings, hopefully to spark the market, the seasonal factor to move the market up and the fact volume is low on this sell off, which also allows for opportunity for a sizeable swing(s) to the upside on the same low volume.    Let's add one more and that is the proverbial bounce possibility now. Santa has enough things in his sleigh to run over the Bears still, but he needs help from companies announcing earnings this week first.".......    We are not being the overly optimistic bulls as caution is still needed.  We are simply going to be watching events, especially earnings closely that may shape up the trading action for the next little while.     Friday's option expiration pop may seem a little suspicious,  but it can also be said that we could've very well gone the other way not really knowing the expectation the day before.    Fact is, the market rose in a very healthy percentage and now we have to deal with what the possible scenario that may lie ahead of us.

In our opinion, the market is ready to cheer for some good news.    We now know what this market is capable of when good news is put in front of it.   Basically there was couple of key events, an earning report from RIMM, a back to back with ORCL, and news of possible foreign cash infusion into MER.   Big techs had strong positive reaction and financials also traded well.     We have been saying this for a while that in order for this market to gain any upside momentum, we need companies to deliver earnings that show no slowdown in growth and no signs of recession.   Also, financials need to go up on headlines, good or bad ones, or at least stay steady on the bad stuff.   MS/ BSC trading firmed up despite the expected blow ups during the week.

The coming week is a short trading week and we have just 3 1/2 trading days to deal with.    While we can assume that many traders have taken the week off to spend time with the families, we believe some traders may be taking advantage of the light volume holiday week to push some stocks around.     We are looking at none other than the solar sector and any other stocks made the recent headline in a good way.  The ones that have made the recent 52 week high are also high on our trading list.

A rundown here with solar stocks that include STP FSLR JASO SOLF CSIQ, popular stocks include AAPL RIMM MA,  Russian stocks like MBT WBD VIP, and recent additions include RSTI LRN APEI are all on our top trading list.

We definitely had a pretty turbulent year but we can still end the year on a high note.   Stay with the best performing plays because those may be the ones to get us off to a good start in the new year. 

As we said above technical analysis is not enough, but with the DJIA and NASD closing at 13450 and 2691 respectively, we are getting more comfortable with the market.   Last week in weekend charts, we noted"..The DJIA /NASD are below our comfort levels of 13500 and 2700 respectively, but since volume is expected to whittle down in the coming days... anything is possible.  This includes big upside days that can easily get us to the levels noted and away from 13300....".   Anything was possible as Santa seems to have gased up and we should move over the above levels into the New Year.  Another possible positive technical scenario and a possible Bear stinger is the action in the small cap RUT, IWM as the down trendline from September might be busted shortly.  The Bears might have a lack of blueberries to fuel on if we cross here.  We are possibly entering the seasonal small cap outperformance of large caps into the month of January, this is probably coinciding perfectly with a break to be over the trendline noted. 

A Merry Christmas to our DJIM friends and your families!