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Wednesday
Dec052007

Grinding...

Nobody likes consolidation, especially after a run-up and especially those traders that did not participate.  Simply, it's because they have money to use, it's money on the sidelines waiting for the next tick up.  Also, the traders that did play are antsy to get started up again.  The grinding action is aggravating, frustrating to watch for all but it is a necessary course and most importantly allows stocks to set up for the next kick up.  It is the time to do your homework, separating your potential winners from those that just went on the coattails of others. The next move up, if it happens, will not be of the same vigor and so many of the coattail stocks will probably not set up during this action now and /or participate when the time comes to do so.  The days leading into a FED decision are always quiet in nature as both sides set up or just sit on the sideline as we've said.  These days it just that more quiet as we go through turbulent times.   What this leads to is a game of give and take, in this case meaning trades are very quick in duration as they give a point or two and then take it away just as quick in a few hours or less.   It is not a time for those not watching the market on a full time basis to be entering into positions.  Many of you in this position have taken the right road since the morning Journal on November 8th when we wrote on the possibility of CSCO breaking the camels..donkeys back.  It happened, it broke and those with a longer time period than an hour or a day have been the lucky ones preserving their gains and cash while the rest of us grind in our accounts.  The days of 10 trading choices a day are long gone for the past month, you may get one now and it doesn't last that long. 

"Cash on Hand".  EPS winners are hardly recognized,  just look at the grinding action of a SIGM since earnings day.  It's a different ballgame now and everybody should get used to it until the Bull comes back.

Early last week, we focused on the China stocks and they continue to be the steady lot.  The gains are not huge but you should be happy to get anything on the long side these days.  The Shang/Hang had a good session, but now comes more word out of China shifting and tightening their monetary policy to prevent 'overheating'. This is nothing new, everyone will have a spin though. 

Solars, this used be one big happy family. Meaning when one moved, its brothers and sisters all went for a joyride. As we saw yesterday, this might not the be case now and makes trading this sector harder as it's not so cut and dry.   FLSR had a terrible day, STP was down nicely, while SPWR provided a prime example of what you could do with a intraday day, but serves no purpose for those not able to sit and watch the market all day as it climbed to 133, 5pts off open and almost 10 points off early lows.  On the other side, there is SOLF who seems to have looked in the mirror and saw JRJC, guess that says it all.   A hedgie or two gone wild taking a bunch of gung ho traders with them.

There is no expectation of new plays or earnings plays emerging in a corrective market as they did this summer, one after the other.  It's the nature of the beast.  It's also quiet logical.  This has been the case since early November.  It comes with the territory and you have to live with it, it's as simple as that until the trend changes.  In the meantime, you concentrate on what you know, your watchlist and trade around it and/or preserve your money.  This doesn't require intraday alerts/comments, we all should have our favorites by now from those traded here and know which ones you can trade without making a mess.