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« Cooling down... | Main | DJIM #22 2007 »
Thursday
May242007

2 day correction enough?

We don't think so and frankly are in a position to watch it unfold without worry.  We've had an excellent May in DJIM with stocks like CROX, FWLT, MA, GTI and the small cap runners in NGA, IDSA to name a few and were prepared to preserve their gains yesterday.  So..what do we now?..Ponder the housing-interest rate scenario drawn up today over the long weekend?.  Hell...no!.  We leave those as always to the talking heads in the media to beat each other up on.  Instead, we'll sit back and slowly and selectively continue to look for stocks to play, to pick, cause that is what we do.  Only this time around the strategy has to change from what was profitable this earning season, right now!. What we mean is we do not expect to see the same reactions to very good numbers/ EPS.  Some stocks, some that might look like excellent plays just report at the wrong time and get left out of the party that was just ongoing....this probably only excludes micro small float stocks which still should get some happy money. We'll see if there is still one kicking around soon enough.

We might have seen this type of reaction in TTC today, an excellent report, excellent guidance that just got caught up in being at wrong place at the wrong time as the market news turned everything upside down.  It still closed at $57.95, but its further potential was most likely dampened today or at least the pace of its potential in days to come by the market smell.  The best way to approach the earning plays remaining this Q that are not micro cap is to be selective and not chase.  Definitely taking smaller sizes is important until you see some kind of confirmation of interest.  Most of these have had nice runs into earning thanks to the overall market, so you have to be ready for profit taking as well....selling the news of a good report.  We've kept a piece of TTC through the day, but we'll keep even that on a short leash.

Reports Q2 (Apr) earnings of $1.77 per share, $0.09 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $1.68; revenues rose 4.2% year/year to $686.7 mln vs the $685.2 mln consensus. Co announces stock repurchase of up to an additional 3,000,000 shares of its common stock. Co sees Y07 EPS growth of 11-14%, from previous guidance of 10-12%.

We do expect to see a bounce here and there as no correction is a falling knife.  So there may be an opportunity early next week as the big money might prop the market just enough to distribute some more stock at higher prices.  We'd also be careful of what we call here the domino effect.  No small cap is safe that has just come off some nice momentum gains.  If you're holding one that is still in one piece tonight, tomorrow might be its day to falter.  Yesterday you had an IDSA and others, today you had a NGA and others.  Slowly they come down one by one, but micro-small caps just come down harder as buyers disappear and one or two sellers can open the flood gates.

As we noted last night, if nothing great came along we'd look for a trading opportunity in CYPB as it has the markings of a stock and story that is not a one day wonder. Unfortunately or fortunately in the case of CYPB, we had no choice but to keep a close eye on as there was nothing to do in this market from very early on.  After 1.5 days of trading it, you start to see signals every time it has started a move.  We saw one signal possibly a little different emerging around 2pm and then noted later in the forum when it started to twitch at 16.4-16.5.  Anyways, a nice move to give something to a dead day.  We sold some late and held some through to tomorrow.  We need a volume push over the 17.50-60 area which was early resistance yesterday to add back.  Especially now, you want to be volume momo plays if you can find it and CYPB might continue to provide that if earnings plays do not.  A sector rotation you might say..from earning plays to story, special sector plays is what may be the course for the next little while.

MFLO, SPAR showing resiliency but that could change pretty quickly... unless as might be the case of MFLO, someone knows something we don't.