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Wednesday
Oct252006

It's tough....

to be in cash right now.    As a matter of fact, this mkt is just downright killing anyone who's sitting on a large pile of cash.     In case you haven't noticed, unless the co. downright disappointed, many of the big caps were rewarded with nice gains even with a mediocre earning report.   But, what do we know and we are just the little guys who don't have a million dollar research arm.      If you read many of the financial websites and lets just use Realmoney.com, for example, you'd even sense a kind of hatred toward the never ending rise of this bull market.    For those so called gurus, they may be right at the end, that this market may indeed be looking exhaustive and this rally is purely emotion driven and without any fundamental basis, and eventually lead to a long decline.    Ok, we've snapped out of that dreaming state about a couple of months ago and have been actively engaged in this market last couple of months.    Things did look to slow down at the beginning of October but the pace is definitely picking up again, as mkt draw towards the small cap earning season.    So how do we play this?    In the small cap land, seeing is always believing and there's really no need to over analyze or guess what the trend may be a month, or weeks from now.    For us, we are traders and we don't trade around theory or hypothetical scenarios, we trade around actions.    Have you noticed the small caps beating estimates, well ours usually don't have estimates or give out guidance which ends up hurting these 'beats', so we are looking forward to some great numbers from unknown caps this quarter.        Ok some updates...

UCTT,  one good habit when it comes to a small caps' earning report is to check its IBD rating soon after.   This has definitely become an automatic thing for us.   We've been watching UCTT, waiting for EPS report to give us a reason to buy in. To sum it up, this one has some decent earnings for a tech co. and it currently has one of the best IBD ratings.    What's so special about this one then?    It's a FRESH IBD play, we dig it and we believe momentum crowd would dig it too.    The only drawback is that it's somewhat heavily owned by the institutions and the pace of rise may be slower than other small caps.   We are excited by the rise in volume and thinking this one has some decent and safe upside potential. Remember its sector as the institutions do!.

BTJ, IBD material and drive perhaps?   We we have two more days to find out and the action definitely supports that thesis today. Anyways...DJIM needs some oil in it's soup to keep driving those gains.  A decline in crude inventories leads to oil/stocks move up like today. This works both sides as we have seen recently. We played the LCC on the down last week, we can play on the up. We're in a good place with BTJ off it's stellar earnings.

IAAC, this one had a big follow through and it almost cleared the $30 mark.    This is one is trading choppy as usual but the bias is definitely toward upside. If you can't stand the ride...don't take it to bed with you, just trade it.

TRT, we said yesterday that the bottom may have been in place,  today mentioned in market chat it was lagging the SOX action sitting low $11's. The action soon after just confirmed our thesis.   We feel that this is a definite buy on weakness untill it breaks $12.50 which is then gonna turn into a chase on strength play.    For all we know, one good day with 200k+ volume can put this baby back on the radar.

MTOX SILC both held up relatively well considering the intraday volatility.

APH made a move in the afternoon and looks to be setting up nicely for new highs. EML...EPS numbers in market chat.

Charts updated at BT's charts- ACOR-APH-AZZ-BTJ-BVX-CETV-CPY-DGIT-DIVX-RIMM-TRT
PLUS NDX, SPX

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