...neverending wait and see tone..

Interestingly today, even pre-10am US macro data commodity linked stocks (WLT ANR CLF etc.) were already outperforming the market by being up 2-4%.   There was no clear evidence as to why, but the first thing that came to mind was that tonight’s critical China PMI  may have leaked.   Tonight, solid results (suggest deceleration may be stabilizing) are in from both the official and HSBC August manufacturing reports and more than anything it’s a relief as anything negative at the wrong time can penetrate 1040SPX.  Tonights result will help the commodity linked stocks and the very late market push should extend until US ISM  comes into play.   China’s number became more important tonight because Japan’s PMI, (the first to be release) was very weak.

Once again 1040 and /or 1037 ES was tested, most are of the belief the more times it’s tested, the stronger the support.   Today, losses were regained quiet easily following ho-hum US data and fresh lows were averted.  Nevertheless, the thinking here is SPX1040 is just as vulnerable as ever due to the unrelenting negative data releases (which are accelerating) upping the chance of  ‘double dip’.  This includes ‘Micro’ negativity piling up, notably in tech land.

Picture remains the same, most are clearly adverse to stock picking and instead rely on the ETF’s/ ES to trade a technically driven market.