Clouds rolled in….

Today’s eco’ developments leading to crazy market developments/ action was enough to leave any investor/trader with dizzy spells into the night.   You actually don’t know where to start in dissecting the ramifications of it all.    Do you pretend to be an economist in trying to figure out the rolling clouds of ugly data (add housing, ISM) and get on the double dip/recession longer out bandwagon (we won't, no matter the fear mongering out there) or do you pretend to a be a technical guru and try to predict if we hit short term support at 1008 (March 09- April ‘10 38.2 retrace) and continue today’s bounce and/or did we have a decisive H&S neckline break at 1040 and about to do the “death cross” 50/200ma’s... Hell  ...while we're at it,  why not try to understand the incredible move on the Euro and the flight from USD as a safe haven.  Isn’t a lower USD, higher Euro usually good for the stock market?… or is it just a greater sign of global alarm bells going off or just a consequence of ECB tightening this week?  Interpretations of all this are going to be off the wall!.  Before today, we were thinking the performance of the 10yrTSY ($TNX) vs. the S&P in the previous Q would lead to an eventual 'rotation'.  You can only bleed so much out of one or the other before the herd reverses the trade as it has in USD/EURO in big ways.  So, the $TNX is another indicator we're watching.

Believe it or not, we actually saw some interesting positives that may lead to the early July bounce we just talked about yesterday...but, you know what?…let’s get through the June NFP# tomorrow first, last bearish consensus we know is a forecast of -130/140K  with a rebound in private +110k, but that may have changed some.   If by miracle from the gods through the rolled in clouds,  the #'s are viewed positively and/or worse case scenario is somehow baked, than of course, we may bounce further.     But, unless a close of 1040 is achieved in order to avoid a bearish 'weekly' stick,  we doubt sentiment will change about the markets this quickly.