Bull's Channel
Friday, April 9, 2010 at 07:29AM The market refuses to give up the recent breakout over 1180 without a fight on the close this week. Is it really a fight the Bears want???, it seems they run away and cover their freshly laid shorts on any reversal as today showed. Today, seemingly was just a tease by the Bulls to let the market dip to 1175 to show support. Yesterday ..As far as pullbacks, 1174 would be a negative break of Feb channel.) . The chart below on site is the ‘ Bull’s Channel’, we’re referring to. Remember, our watermark for the Bull run to eye since 2009 has been the 20MA and we’re quite aways from it to even become worried. At this point the 20MA constitutes a 2% from 1191 high and that is all we’re looking for as a decent pullback. Maybe just over 3% at worst if and when it comes. As pointed out yesterday watch for clues from our Shadow list as to the severity of the pullbacks for clues of liquidation. One thing you can clearly see this morning is the list hardly showed any selling, unfortunately, you also didn’t see them participate in the reversal as there was really no losses to reverse from and most closed pretty flat on the day.
Bull's Channel
Discussed earlier this week was the out performance of Financials continuing into the week, as well as the retail SSS numbers. Today, this was the backbone of the market as it negated all the negative noise…Jobless claims,Greece etc. We didn’t expect this to move us higher, but it has kept the Bulls from surrendering. The April SSS expectations were above estimates and the hope of selling off on anticipated strong March #’s didn’t materialize because of it. ...“Maybe some of today’s out-performance from Financials is compelling and carries over for a few days and/or retail SSS numbers will allow this market to tick up, but we`re not holding our breath.”
Despite the market seemingly not going anywhere before earnings kick-off, opportunities to trade most days is still there off our sector shadow list. After LED’s big out performance early in the week, the Casinos from our consumer discretionary sec’ caught a big headwind from strong Las Vegas strip revenue numbers. On the soft side, the commodity linked stocks, notably coals/ steel are dealing with China’s internal talk to stop iron ore imports for the time being in retaliation to recent price hikes.