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Tuesday
Mar162010

FOMC on deck..

Well, it definitely looks like nobody is willing to do anything until the FOMC.    There's really no pre Fed movement whatsoever and market momentum (lack of) pretty much carried over from late last week.    This isn't necessarily a bad thing though.    For all we know, market's simply waiting for a big catalyst to get us moving.

Fed can and probably will provide such a catalyst this time around,  up or down.  Notably, just because we are at important resistance from Dec/ Jan.   Note, this is a single day meeting.   As the economy improves, people are paying extra attention to every word the Fed says.   Of course, every one is trying to sense when the Fed will start change it’s tone as that may signal a potential hike in the interest rate on the horizon.   In most likelihood,  it doesn’t look like anything will change, but market will be on the look out for any shift in tone,  which subsequently may rattle the market initially if there is even a subtle one.  The point is, why should Fed change its main tone all of a sudden?    We aren't exactly in a white hot booming economy at this moment.   Unemployment is so high that anything they do will jeopardize the market's confidence and  have a very devastating effect on the economy and further pushing back the recovery.   Basically, now is not the time to expect the Fed to even consider the possibility of a rate hike.

So, do we still get a lift from the market if Fed gives us what we want?   Well, we just have to wait till tomorrow to find out.    Right now, there's no sense of urgency to chase stocks,  but that can change quickly.   We have to be prepared for a quick chase in case the market decides to give us a run for the money.