Ahead of the open, (08-05)

The trading week ahead was supposed to be a quiet one with tier 1 eco data/ earnings out of the way.   If it wasn’t bad enough markets already had sold off after the ‘whisper’ NFP#  was hit, Euro region elections roiled futures to ~ 1342 Sunday night with one election (France) coming inline and the other (Greece), worse than expected.  These elections were not listed as ‘catalytic’ events the past week.  The French victor was anticipated, market had become generally fine with it and the pro-growth rhetoric coming from Hollande.   As far as Greece, it had become a non-event after the market breezed through their last event that produced negative headlines.  If anything, EU banks hoarding cash in a WSJ story might have been the only ‘unexpected’ event.  All in, the short 8am premarket note played out well as all ES losses were recouped impressively soon after the opening bell and closed at Friday’s price (SP1370).  “Are they worthy of the overnight drop?.  Likely not, but going to watch from the sidelines (not add 'discount' positions) until some calmness returns.  Single stock action will tell the tale, could be just a lot of ES (futures) shenanigans”.

   

Since Thursday, market had a lacklustre reaction to I’C’# going back to pre-Easter favorable levels, we had a ‘late’ sell- reaction to a lowered/ ‘whisper NFP” (along the lines of ADP, GS forecast) and now Euro region ‘elections’ were made out to be a market driver overnight, but were not considered to be such last week.   As speculated below, market is out of ‘catalytic’ events with earnings over and labor markets remaining inconclusive for what could be weeks.  We could also say the upside ISM was basically faded earlier in the week.  The reason to stay sideline, besides to due failure to reclaim SP1400 and not add at discounted prices today(none anyways in single stocks) is because moves are being faded since the ISM.

  

…”…a lack of buyers ahead of lowered NFP# expectations or maybe today's flippant reactions are indications market is running out of catalysts short term. (Labor market may take weeks to figure itself out). Only a print of 200K tomorrow may wake this bunch up as SP earnings season effect wanes. (04-05)

 

All in, market is back within the range it has travelled for weeks now. Nothing has really changed as the confusing domestic Economic data keeps investors confused, while the earning high has waned.