Your Personal Trader - DJIM Journal 2011

..for WTW and/ or my recent TBL' (Earthkeepers) purchase to get through another winter!

Coming into the week we noted ‘inflation’ would be the key ‘word’ and it has proven to be as all the market noise is related it. Everything else, including Iranian boats and some overnight ECB buying (fat finger?), the market is turning a blind eye to as we see by recent trading day's 'green' closes. Note, if Journals do not contain mentions of eg. boats, Middle east tensions or whatever heading into a trading day as every other media outlet, it’s because we’ve turned a blind eye to it and are trading away the Shadowlist components.

A simple question now is does the US /global have an inflation problem?. Okay, if so, why are the emerging markets on fire this week (>3%)?. Sure, they’ve have beaten up so far in ‘11, but you can beat them up more on inflation fears!. Yesterday, FOMC related forecasts didn’t change (positive) So, this is the noise, the fear mongering, but what do you do as a trader?. Consider this…What if inflation points ease down the road, you’ll beat yourself for not using your cash this EPS season!. That's as simple as it gets. What we’ve been saying this Q (if not years now) is trade the earnings stories/ rotations and ignore almost everything else.

Shadowlist

Q4 Earnings update- Look at today’s ~40% pops, WTW TDSC TLB, (picked TBL to alert today, but you can add all 3 to Shadowlist for now). These are almost historical earning reaction gaps and incredibly there is more follow through intraday (see IPGP comments recently).

Momentum/earnings/“winners of ’10- While some momo’10 names notably lag today in a melting up market (maybe something to monitor for broader mkt), this year’s inclusions to DJIM consisting of opticals/ EPS’/ new potential momo’s carry on. NPTN, FN alerted here at ~ $14/ $25, respectively are near highs of $21/$32. When you catch momo, you really catch it!. Buyers who missed the ride earlier got on board of NVDA (up >10% from red lows), despite many bearish analyst comments. AZPN got a $22 price tgt.