DJIM #11 2011

Due to the earthquake Friday, the markets were secondary and if not irrelevant.  As witnessed all weekend the implications and fallout will remain an unknown.  We started early last week talking of the volatility back in the market and it picked up steam in one of the worst days in the markets in months and lead to our early premise in late February of this playing out like out like November instead of another quick snapback… February 24th”..supports  fell quite easily and brings up the possibility of 50MA as buyers are in ‘No Rush’ as titled yesterday.  This dip is looking more like the November one to 50ma eventually instead of the January one.  Short term- Saudi Arabia is the wildcard noisemaker here, if this turmoil doesn't spread there, SPX 1295-1300 cluster of support may hold.”.   Unforunately, the market got a few unexpected wildcards (optical earnings induced slide, china import/export, US trade #’s & Earthquake to lessen the positive developments out of Saudi Arabia (non-event) by Friday.).  Heading into the week a ‘bleak mood’ will likely persist, but the market did defend the SPX 1294 level discussed and the sideways trade may continue if it continues to hold.

Shadowlist

• Commodities-   The fallout from earthquake to start was the ‘rebuilding ’ trade in steel  related names.  Another will likely be solar  due to the nuke issue at hand. (Barron's was positive on our 2 names TSL,FSLR  based on valuation). As far as China trade #’s, it is likely an aberration due to seasonal factors as January was extremely strong and February very weak.  A very possible wash in the end, but market is not drawing this conclusion yet and will likely wait till March’s # come out.
• Consumer-  Retailers in list acted okay and are near highs late last week, RL, FOSL(IBD50 addition) TBL etc.  SODA continues to trade well.
• Momentum/ earnings/ winners of ’10-   some better signs last few days as high growth names bounce ie. NFLX, FFIV.
• Financials-  early in the week talk of rotation into financials was discounted here (needed more than BAC meeting) and this proved right as once again they faltered.