In the premarket newsflow, OECD raised the economy outlook for U.S (alert posted). This is the first time they've done it in 2 years. This is actually a direct forecast contrast of what World Bank said a couple of days ago, which we stated we had problems with and it would go away once/if digested properly. Regardless who's right and who's wrong, we always feel that it's up to the market to decide the outcome. In the econ. data dept., we had a unexpected big surprise Durable Goods # that further excited the market in the early going. Although the market ended up giving up most of its gains, we'd still like to point out a few positives.
Earnings do matter! Tech giant ORCL came out with better than expected report last night and the stock/ sector was greeted with some positive reaction. Despite the late day weakness, both ORCL and JBL (another one reported eps last night) held up most of the gains by the close. The responsible culprit for today's late day weakness is the FOMC statement or better, the lack of it in regards to more purchases which caused a $USD lift off and commods' took it on the chin. Still, you can say that everything they decided during the meeting was pretty much expected. The bottom line is that we are back at SPX 900 w/ 50MA crossing 200MA. Buyers are present, just more discriminating with purchase prices than in the previous months of the rally. As more and more companies line up to release earnings, we are feeling more confident about buying on the dips, (STEC another perfect 9ema move today). Given the weakness we've endured the last week and half, some of the plays on our watchlist are no longer in the "overbought" category.
Looking at various sectors on our shadowlist link, there's no doubt that some of the strong ones came from Steels (most up 5% early) + Tech area, as well as some China plays. In fact, overall breadth is superb today with only a few red names on our entire watchlist. http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=141&t=AAPL,ADY,AKS,ARUN,ASIA,BIDU,BWY,CVLT,DDRX,EBS,EJ,EQIX,FCX,FSLR,GMCR,GNK,GS,GYMB,HES,HOT,ICE,JPM,JOYG,JRCC,LVS,MA,MOS,MYGN,NEU,OIH,PENN,POT,PWRD,RIMM,RVBD,SAFM,SCHN,STAR,STEC,STP,TSL,WFC,WMS,WYNN,WLT,X,&ta=0&p=w&o=-change
Before the actual earnings season starts in full force sometime in July (now we have May ending reports), our trading strategy is simple. So called "technical weakness" continues to be a buying opportunity to us, just as we noted this week if we approached 880SPX. We just don't see a major breakdown to a much lower level without some major negative catalysts coming into EPS. Given the recent positive earning trend and econ. data points, the probability of a breakdown is even less likely. Right now, we are still in a process of working through some overbought levels since March and it's likely to continue over the next couple of weeks. This shouldn't concern new standout EPS plays coming.
In the meantime, enjoy the good trading action that still exists out there, you just have to be selecive or just tune in to the soap opera as one congressman is smearing Bernanke with a cover up, while another Senator is confessing his adultress- marriage cover up all at the same time. Oh, what a country!