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Friday
Sep182009

" Bull"dozer

Even as bullish as we have been, we are getting somewhat restless.    There is no denying that this market has been robust.    Most of the worries have been cast aside and any resistance levels, shorts have been bulldozed,  mercilessly.   The most recent levels, such as this or that retracement level get chewed up as if a Caterpillar D11 was being used.    At this rate, we can easily go to SPX 1100+ without any kind of meaningful pause/pullback.     Oh yes,  we aren't even using the term "correction" anymore because it's actually an insult to the Bears these days.   Pausing, consolidating, grinding is what this market has been doing during the past few weeks and frankly we are overwhelmed with the pace of this bull cycle run. 

Still,  there's a few problems with this kind of market.   One problem is that the market simply does not allow us, the traders to build any meaningful position on some of the good plays out there any longer.    Yes,  we can chase the strength up a few points but seriously, not many of us are comfortable holding onto those high flyer or those breaking out at this stage.    So,  this has effectively become a very short tick swing fest.    Guess, this is where building a book of stocks, quality stocks such as EPS plays early is the big payoff!.   Sectors take turns to get pushed up these days and we have had increasing volume for the past three days in a row.    What this feels like is that the market can top out short term in a dramatic fashion if a volume flood is created by some catalyst.    Basically, we are 'cautioning' everyone to take a step back and not to get too carried away with this market at this point.  

As far as some of the individual play goes, things aren't as bad.     We do have an earning season coming up so there's bound to be some pre-earning run.    Today, we had a pop from DDRX  and we believe it's capable of running for couple more days till it releases report on Sept. 21st/AMC.  ATHR, also popped today after digesting its recent guidance and acquisition news.    AMSC,  it also popped out of recent trading range and got a new closing high.  Even a different type here like CTB  broke out seemingly over $17 today after possible entries in the 15’s since alerted a few days back.   It's interesting to see what kind of follow through we'll get, if any,  in many of the names we follow.   HMIN,   we also like this one as it's sitting at the recent high and the chart looks good.   Also, believe it or not, EJ  another China made a NCH today.   Still, as many sec’s out there, China needs a rest now.   The weakness in STEC  is overdone generated by a firms note on competition and therefore, STEC losing its advantage.   This is really nothing new and may only become an issue in 8-10 months,  by that time this particular market space will grow and there will be room for all to share in the pot.    It might be any easy bounce play tomorrow for some points, more importantly, it will definitely be a better play later after this gets buried under the rug.   Building positions from any weakness would be ideal here.

VVUS, did as asked and priced immediately the secondary at $10.50 tonight    We are hoping this gets the stock moving in the near future.    As far as we’re concerned, sooner than later, if we pullback and/or sentiment changes a bit in the broad market, we will have interest coming into more defensive sec’s such as biotech.  Call it a hedge if you like.   ARNA, another obesity drug play has a result pending, it could spark more interest in VVUS tomorrow,  if it disappoints.

Technically, a close over 1053-1055 on Friday would be a bullish sign for 1100 by early October.  If below,  1048 followed by 1035 ST support may be coming into play ST(short term).

We look forward to next week to see the IPO action in regards to the health of this market.  At least 7 to 8 companies go public,  making it the busiest IPO since 2007.