Sticks and stones may break our bones...
Thursday, July 30, 2009 at 05:19AM ..but foul Bear mouthed analysts, CNBC reporters will not break our 869 SPX.
We picked a terrible day to have CNBC on during the trading day!. Wow, the negativity of noise stemming from yesterday’s disappointing consumer confidence #, followed today by the Shang bloodbath,cover # of the Durable goods book, followed by a 2nd weak TSY note, followed by a Beige book that really looked like a Grey book as it gave nothing but mixed signals could have left even the seasoned long bull to throw in the towel and sell today, while we tested and tested yesterday's support bid at 869. Tomorrow, we just may cancel our cable and go with the wire hanger for an antenna!.
If there was one day, today was the day, we could’ve been swayed to sell it. We really felt alone out there ;). As hard as it was, we hung in there on our own views and continue to believe the last few days had some fat Bulls reloading for a move higher. The nice close to ~875 just reaffirmed some of this and the post 4-4:30 pm spike in SPY had a 'Hmmmm' interesting green tone to it. A big part of our reasoning of not dropping the ball today was the performance of the stocks we’re covering as they are seemingly more resilient than the average stock. The only one that wasn’t was HITK , but that wasn’t a surprise as we warned for first time on it, heading into the day…“At this point, we do feel it may needs to settle down a bit.” In typical past year’s EPS runner fashion of cheap stocks, it dropped like a rock sooner than later. Also, we have no part in the markets poorest sector today which was hands down any commodity linked stock and so are immune to this action and noise.
If we are right about Bulls positioning for another rip, we will form an outside of 869 Bullish month tape. These latest days are the 3 flattest days we’ve seen in a long time, this holds true for portfolio balances. Unless, you're taking profits this week as some plays move to highs, your P&L probably goes back to flat if you wait because there's been no conviction yet, which we discussed earlier in the week to press higher. Something has to give here this week, if we can get through the next few hours and/or overnight without more negative noise than the supports built up last 3 days may provide trouble soon enough to the Bears as alerted in morning.
Demi/ YourPersonalTrader
Below are 2 excerpts following our minority DJIM view yesterday (visit site below today's Journal) from GS & NTRS on DG #'s, the premise of fat Bulls loading up for a passing grade on the number is probably evident here and by ES (SPX) follow through overnight after 'Hmmmm' interesting action just after close.
