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Wednesday
Jun102009

Be patient...

So far, month of June has proved to be the exact sort of thing traders remember from the old days.   The old and golden days that is.    Sure, for those who are itching to see a big pop,  followed by a violent run-up to SPX 1000,  we feel that it'll come eventually.    For now,  we have to be just patient to let the market work its range out.    As a trader, we have to trade this market in a rational way, but not in an emotional one.  We commented today before the open that things seemed a  'little unsettling' and it got a little too unsettling at certain points of the day as the 'fade' occurred at the open, but continued and continued till late in the day

The approach we've been working on the past few days is to think about buying stuff near 200ma which happens to be around SPX 918(today) and letting some go (fading the early strength) near SPX 945-950 (formidable again).    It's not that we don't have any faith in a potential breakout.    Absent of any major catalyst, we feel any pop which lacks volume should be sold into, which is exactly the case today.    We are more willing to buy dips than chase strength these days.    With the exception of a few China plays, most of the stocks on our list obey this SPX range.   We do have a very strong bullish bias, but we do have to treat it in an intelligent way.     This market is very much a grind your way higher kind of one.   It isn't gap high and chase higher kind of momentum market we used to trade a couple of years ago.

For now, mid SPX 930s seems to be the no man's land while SPX 920s is the area we start to buy stuff.   We really like the Steel area (again outperformed today) and some Techs as they're a big story of the recovery process currently.    Chinese plays seem to be the safer area to go aggressive on dips as well since their economy is more of a sure thing than ours.   One of these days,  we'll break out of the range and march higher while massive skepticism will keep the pace in check.    Think about it, without the skeptical view of many market participants, we just would not be able to buy stuff on dips these days.    When the market has a two sided view, it's generally considered a healthy market.    While week after week, month after month, seeing where SPX ends up gives us the notion who's really in control of this market.   Shhh, just don't tell those skeptical bears that they are wrong so they stop shorting.   The last thing we want, at this point, is for everyone to be bullish.   Now, that'd be a scary thought!