...catalysts coming your way..

Early morning was a continuation of yesterdays pain as we hit our very short term support in the ~825 area,  but than we reversed nicely and it was joy all over again in WallStreetville.   As we discussed recently,  this market is making meat out of the ETF SPY , SPX cash traders as they bounce off the walls in a confined rubber room.    At least, the room is padded and small (800-850SPX) and you really can’t hurt yourself in such tight quarters, but what it is doing,  is driving many up the wall as they complain about not making money in this rocky environment.    We have a remedy here at DJIM and that is simply be selective/ timely in individual equities/ sectors and that will be your medicine.    All you have to do is search back and go over the stocks we ‘ve played in ‘09 and you’ll clearly see if you’re picky and timely, you can be having a very good 5 weeks or so.   Lastly for all those out there feeling like they are in a grinder,  today’s upside move maybe an indication that this rocky road may turn out to be a thing of the past as catalysts are on their way.    If you think it’s the jobs report tomorrow were talking about, you’re mistaken.   Unless, it’s an incredibly worse than anticipated or surprisingly good,  it shouldn't matter much as there is much more on the horizon!.    Right now, the focus is entirely on early next week and the reason for the reversal today to knock your head at 850 a few times again (financials leading..GS, MS, NTRS show the buy dip scenario into good news we just discussed again yesterday).   Next week can be described as a do or die for the market!.    A treasury plan will be unveiled for banks and a fiscal stimulus for the economy, most likely.    We also have a TALF for the consumer coming this month.   The HUGE question is if these ‘catalysts’ will be sufficient enough and make investors happy.   If it does, a move over 850 will see covering and buy stops kick in and not just in the wimpy manner we’ve been seeing lately on any rally that eventually peters out a few hours or a day(s) later.    This will be a significant move as finally investors have some clarity and grow to feel this market may be rehabilitated eventually.   The biggest drag remains (confidence) and these catalysts can cure it all and bring investors back into equities finally.    Here’s the scary part, if the above outcome is not achieved, say hello or is goodbye to 800 and new lows all around,  but let’s not dwell on that.

In review…As far as those stocks traded long here in 2009, names we’ve concentrated on, all had a pretty good day.    It seems Oil related trade components have been a non issue of late, yet in the energy space we have CHK, HK  breaking recent highs.    In the financial- bad bank, we have some 'good bank' in playing reversals in GS, JPM, NTRS, PCBT  (defensive).   Recently, we’ve been timely on the shippers and favor GNK  as holding a DRYS overnight is not an option here.    Part of leaning to the GNK is it’s ability to move faster than the rest, but remember that works both ways.    In Solar, we favor FSLR  and it hit a new recent high $150 today as it heads into earnings in a few weeks.    Remember, we went Solar recently because of European guidance in the sector and it's connection to FSLR (Phoenix solar).   We have the Education services stocks, ESI, APOL  flirting with highs after being brought into the loop here a few weeks back.     We have MYGN, once again as an earning play, biotech pill.    Yesterday, prior to earnings coming out we, yes..we who never hold into earnings in the glory earnings days leaned the other way and thought there was a good chance V  and a beneficiary (MA ) to good report might be defensive enough to put out better numbers and roar.    This reasoning goes back to MYGN, ESI, APOL being defensive and producing quality reports and big moves afterwards, even some squeezes after reporting.   Today, we had an intruder and unfamiliar name around here pop up, we'd preferred GEOY  didn’t pop nearly 2 bucks to its day high after alert,  but we’ll take it and think this stock will make some headlines as soon as it clears some more regulatory hurdles in the future and comes on more screens.   This one will take some time, but it could be one like EBS from recent past we said could be tucked away for sunnier days, but with some more risk.     We’re liking commods’ more these days, but aren’t sold on the steels, coals just yet for more than a day here or there.   Still, with any rally in the space,  you have a bunch of names that go as part of a group move off our shadow-list.   Right now, the Ag-chem's are moving in anticipation of a very important week ahead,  which includes critical USDA data,  so we’ve got our trading eye on the MON, CMP & POT  like Michael Phelps.

So the point is simple, no matter how rocky the market seems,  there are opportunities day after day and you just have stay patient and selective till a true course appears.