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YourPersonalTrader- Toronto Canada/ London UK
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Wednesday
Feb042009

..Better than feared..

A better than feared mentality is quietly emerging as January readings are improving in many parts of the globe.  Unfortunately, we can't really do anything about it until Washington makes some positive noise.   Oh well, life goes on and one highlight emerged at DJIM premarket, MYGN.

MYGN,   something must be in the genes for this biotech to produce another strong Q!  Once again, we alerted this shadow-listed stock highlighting that even if it gapped it had room to roam and did ever.  After being 74-75 at premkt alert it gapped to $77--78 and by noon it was eyeing $85.   No matter your entry in the morning,  MYGN should have been a good friend to DJIM members once again.  EPS of .43 beat the street consensus .32 handily, excellent sequential revenue growth as well.   Estimates will be raised here and targets should follow.  On a day where no leadership emerged in a rally, MYGN clearly stood out.   We will continue to trade MYGN,  but after such a robust day, we'll wait for a pullback to trade it again, just like last Q.

Speaking of no leadership in a rally of 140 points!.  No financials, no familiar high beta tech.  We received a few emails, read some trading blogs and heard the same question of where were the financials-banks, most notably.  This led many to question and ask how did indexes move so much.   It`s quite simple,  if you just look at the recent declines of the SP Finacials-Banks, down 27% and  38% respectively and you understand they don`t always follow or lead.    It`s not a question of is this rally day sustainable because all are clearly waiting for Washington,  we realize breaking 850 is most likely not doable without a positive Washington spin.   Today, PNC,  brought the regional banks and the sec down, we also had questions arising about BAC`s credit levels and dilutive equity sales to the gov`t.  This space is clearly underperforming all year and so did today!.   Today's move was ETF and Options driven,  not by any one stock!.   Throw in some broad short covering and nothing stands out.   This is why this move was a head scratcher to many when you look at stocks individually and see miniscule gains. 

A few market bullet points,

Washington, it’s a sector in itself now.  Geithner interview, words of a very aggressive, quick stance on  fiscal stimulus and Republicans alternative plan that would include a corporate tax cut helped the market.  Neither is very meaningful and enough to move the market like it did.   We just think a push higher to protect 8000 was starting when we tossed out the SPY chart yesterday.

Shippers,  we noted this sec late last week, we gained more interest today off the Baltic Dry Index advancing another 4.5% to over 1,100.  Iron ore-China noise flow the reason. 

USD$ was selling off across the board.  Big pullback.  We recently put up charts of UUP-$CRX correlation.  At this point bumps in the dollar and you begin to look to trade some commodity stocks-sectors.   Many steel stocks acted right.   Industrial related stocks performed well off some of the sec earnings..UPS one of them.

Resistance=  around 850SPX

Eco data, including yesterdays note on the PMI, better than feared data flowed some more (pending home sales beat, but with price falls)

CSCO  tonight, market never seems to do well (afternoon of) as a precursor to a big tech report last few Q`s.