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Thursday
Feb262009

TARP..TALF..now we have RPWD or `RUFF`

Seems tonight D.C has leaked out the details and given clarity to all the bailouts.   The public should view this as a positive because many are drowning so far this year with the DJIA down over 17% in just two months.   It`s a `RESCUE Portuguese Water Dog!!`.  Yep, that`s all it is,  the Super Dog that saved Portuguese fisherman will now save America!    Alright, maybe it`s not the whole plan,  but after today`chop..zig zag trading our minds are in bits and pieces and worn out.    Maybe,  if Obama released this critical info during his Union address,  the market would not fallen 2% in the first hour of trading.   Yes,  we wanted a pullback today, but that was a bubble bursting before our eyes in the 60 minutes!. There was nothing healthy about it as we would need 200 points on the Dow just to finish green.   That would be a rally in itself and seemed improbable as it would mark back to back days of such.   Well, what did really leak during the day was the Stress Test basics as the market rallied to almost green just before 2pm (the release came at 2pm).    As soon as the news came out publicly, the market reversed hard.    Soon after it reversed 20pts on the SPX until hitting SPX 780 and coming down hard all over again.    So what we had in the 3 hours was the digestion of the stress test,  unfortunately the general public, traders don`t understand what all this gibberish is and so what the happens is it becomes a market trading on intraday technicals!.    What we needed to see is late day buying by MF`s, you remember those when the whales come in a buy a market late into the close!.    We didn`t have such from this news,  but think this needs digestion overnight.     It should not be viewed as negative and we`d expect the market to trade back up, maybe not 780 immediately, but close enough.    The tests do not appear to as onerous as feared and it gives a good impression D.C does not want to Nationalize,  but give out some medicine to let the banks heal themselves.     So, the strat`of the buying zone till 800 remains as in most recent Journals,  we'll wait for greater headlines to decipher the game if it nears 800 as we close off the week.