..got a 'Hideki?'

What do Phillies fans and Bulls have in common tonight?.  …Answer… They both have a “Hideki”!  Get it?  Head-acheee!.   That was easy getting,  the market action is completely something else.    The surprise isn’t the late sell off,  this was a big FOMC and the whipsaw action is reminiscent of a year or two back after a report.    The thing that doesn’t make sense is the big picture and that is what is the market waiting for?.   The catalysts are all there for more fireworks to the upside…eco data, FOMC green light today, corporate reports etc..  It is not as simple as selling on the news or year end locking gains.   Either the capital markets want something or knows something like a geo-political mess around the corner.   Maybe it’s waiting for an employment report to surprise one day and/ or have 10% unemployment hit finally to blend everything together and have a big day leading to the next leg up.  It’s all pretty confusing now.

There was nothing about the dovish FOMC statement that would cause a sell off unless the market ran up ahead of it and sold the news.  This is simply what happened.  This was the play here since Wednesday morning…“SPX 1038/Market might be shrugging off USD strength, ES lows hit overnight off UK bank stimulus negatives may give bounce chance into FOMC.”    Heading into this alert, we earlier said …‘Be ready for signs of buyers for a trade on any retests of  ~1029 today's lows / ~1027 low ES tests or next level support ~1021,  buy stops should kick on break of todays high".     Simply, what we got was retest of 1027ES Wed. morning and than buy stops kicked in at 1050 premkt and we made a straight line to 1060 heading into FOMC.   That’s about 30 SPX/ ES points in just over a day heading into FOMC statement.   Unfortunately,  1060 hit in morning became resistance after the FOMC and sell off on news began from that point.   This has been a TA bounce and resistance is traders locking in profits, we talked last week about this potentially occurring on any bounce.  

Also for the trading log,  we’ve recently talked about the point of our Shadowlist besides having tradeable plays on it is to look for market signals.   Today, we got a new one of sorts.   After FOMC, we saw something peculiar before the sell off.   Did you notice it?.   The USD weakened, but the commodity linked stocks in all sectors on our list..coals, steels, oils etc were not budging at all!.   Tonight, everyone is talking the USD decoupling from the market.   It’s been USD weak, market strong and vice versa.  This sell off was a shift and therefore surprised many by close.   Today our Shadowlist definitely tipped off the sell off and we’re going to make a note of this in our trading log as should you for the future.

Anyways, we’re not disappointed or should be.   The trade was ‘into’ and it worked, the rest was a crapshoot as to what the market may do.   We expected volatility this week and are getting it big time with a NFP# report still on deck.  The market can easily make another move up ‘into NFP’ and get back some of the sell off back.  If we get some help from IJClaims and retail tomorrow morning, we could make it all back!.  

AMC, we got CSCO  with an excellent report to add to potential fireworks one day soon.  The importance of CSCO and what they said is because this is the first JULY end Q, this means there are even better changes one month after all the other big boys reported.   Also, as the recent notes on TRAN and SOX breakdowns, we have had good news this week for TRANS (BNI) saving the index and now we have CSCO to hopefully spill life into the SOX.