..much ado about nothing

After all the recent moves in broad indexes,  it was inevitable to have a day of rest.   In some respects, we had hoped to see the Bears show follow through to continue the beating from Tuesday,  unfortunately they didn't even show up to play.    Basically, the day had a look of indecision on both sides with no incremental news/ eco. data to drive a trade either way.  At the close, a negative bias remains as profit taking came in and Bears await some ammunition into weeks end.

As we've noted the last 2 days,  we're watching Commodity stocks for a long trade in expectation of liquidation ending soon.    Interestingly,  we had a strong USD,  yet all the Coals, Steels, Ag's, Shales moved to the upside as of 11:30am coinciding with inventory numbers.    We haven't seen this USD trade in the longest time.    Is this a sign of a change tides?. ...   Hold your horses!......Coal +7.1%, Steel +6%, Gold/Silver +4.6%, Natural Gas +3.9%, Oil +3.8%, Commodity Index +3.4%, Oil Service +2.7%.        As with any type of trade, you want confirmation before proceeding in any substance to hold overnight/ days,  this move had nothing more than a normal bounce theme to it.     Do not be fooled by looking at does gains of 5%-10% in a day at this stage from these stocks and think you missed something great.      We're used to having these stocks trade 5%-10% in a day and they would be up 5-10 pts,  now all you're getting for 5%-10% moves is a stock up a few bucks.  That is how much of a beating they have taken during this liquidation period.     Basically, we had more confidence buying 1000 share lots a few months ago at much higher prices than say today in these plays at these lows.    It's much easier for a eg. PCX to give up a 5% gain which may look great, but it's only $1.64, which could easily evaporate by the first trade next morning at this point.  

Simply,   the risk now is not worth the same in dollars as you'd have buy twice the shares to get the same dollar return you were getting recently.   It's not worth the risk now to double/ triple your share intake on a play in our view.    It's always been a theme to collect points in stocks, a $1 up= 1..$5 up= 5 points and so today's moves did not have the intraday range we're looking for.    Anyways, at least it was good to see them buck the $USD trend for a day.     It will very interesting to see what the $USD does at 80 here,  its a major level and it should pullback some which may provoke the buying in commodity stocks we're anticipating..  wait and see 

Here's the catch,  we've seen Gold shoot to $1000,  we had Oil shoot to 140+....we think it's a possibility the $USD dollar does the same and if it does,  what will happen to these resource stocks?.   These are crazy times and we've had rockets in GOLD/ OIL,   why can't we have another in $USD.!

Looking beyond Lehman...

No doubt, once again much of the focus, headlines were on the penny stock, Lehman today.    Most of you have probably followed the drama as much as we have and are fairly amused by the hourly progress.    Honestly,  we feel sorry for Lehman's management to be simply strangled by the market participants.    The late surge in index is once again sparked by the news that BAC is in talks to buy LEH, even though a nice reversal was already underway.  Oh yeah, BAC + Countrywide + LEH  would make a dynamic team, wouldn't it ;)!    There's also speculation that a deal would not go through without some sort of assistance from the government similar to the BSC arrangement.    This is definitely one of the most interesting situation we've come across in a long while.

Ok, eventually, this LEH thing will settle and a deal or lack thereof will come out of it.    We are not going to put any emphasis on the outcome of LEH as it's simply entertaining than anything else.   What we are concerned here is what is going to happen with this market after LEH saga.    Corporate earnings will come out soon and we'll then be focused back onto the economy.   Now that commodity prices have come down dramatically, there's no immediate worry of inflation.    The biggest question is "can the companies deliver confidence?"  to market participants.    Trading is often based on perception and not actual data,  traders will act according to that vision.    This is the exact reason why oil went up so much earlier this year and now dramatically down since July.   You can also draw the same conclusion about any other commodity out there.   Unfortunately, perception is also being associated with speculation, in our opinion.    Much of the trading these days is based on speculation and the trend of heavy speculation is likely to continue for sometime.    So, this is what we as retail traders have to deal with on a monthly, weekly and daily basis.   Speculate..and the last few days we've been doing just focusing on a potential reversal in commodity stocks anticipating a stall and/or pullback from the $USD at 80, coinciding with Oil finding support at $100 and trending higher in the short term.

Late in the day we issued alerts that we are buying small chunks of commodity plays here and there.    The reason we did that was because..

1. the commods halted their slide yesterday and reversed today off previous days lows nicely.

2. despite the weak oil and strong $USD, commods are holding their ground and most closed near high at the end.     This is just a bounce trade in our book for now and we'd increase position if we get some more momentum and we'll bail if things get hairy.

3. Ike

Bottom line, there's tons of stuff that's going on besides LEH and we have to keep our eyes out and not to get distracted. 

On a technical basis, the major indexes/ corresponding ETF's (DIA, IWM,NDX etc.) put in engulfing candles which may put a scare into many a short into the weekend.  This was a wild, positive outcome considering early on it seemed all but over for the market as SPX hit 1211 (interestingly, almost to the tick from July 16th reversal start) and therefore this reversal has to be paid attention to.

A scattered look at resource related stocks off our list, we all have our favorites by now to trade....

DXPE +1.42%

FLS +2.71%

FSYS +7.31%

X +4.30%

AKS +4.80% IPHS +6.05% ROCK +2.71%

ANR +1.87% JRCC +2.87% SCHN +2.65%

CF +6.06% MEE +2.99% WLT -1.06%

CLF +3.10% MON +5.19% XCO -1.09%

CLR -0.22% MOS +3.33%

CMP +4.23% MT +3.19%

CRK -0.46% PCX +3.21%

GDP +3.28% POT +5.40%

GMXR -0.36% PVA -3.30%

HK +4.76% RIG +3.17%

DJIM #37 2008

...Pay the piper day for all the excessive looting by all investments banks in the form of bonuses etc. year over year has come!. The fundamental definition of the investment banking business has changed and it will never be the same.  Unfortunately, 50k more,  most not living the greed, but just trying to live the American dream are on the street and it ain't Wall street!.   Who would've 'thunk it' last year at this time, we'd have no Bear Stearns, no Lehman Bros and no Merrill Lynch brand.    Historic times, we live in, trade in, as investment banks collapse like domino's!.  The repercussions are not clear and that's the scary part, nobody knows how far the 70+ trillion credit derivative market unraveling because of LEH will go,  nobody knows anything for sure and it's useless to talk about.    The gov't intervention in FNM/FRE unraveled this banking mess this weekend and now we face the consequences of not knowing what comes next.    There is no clarity at all.   All we know is what we've saying of late and that is cash is king.   As traders, we can only ask is this plunge going to give us the opportunity to have the downside break, we've been looking for?.  Okay, let's not kid ourselves..to make predictions for a trade in the morning is insane as more surprises...bad and maybe some good will dictate every minute of this weeks trading.     Many unwarranted stocks will be looted and you may pick up a quick intraday trade...to each his own!....be safe is all we can say, today!

Two more down, how many more to go?

CFC, BSC, FNM, FRE, LEH, MER.....   these were some of the most respected names just a couple of years ago.    It's not an understatement that it was once an envious thing to work for one of those companies.    One question we are wondering these days is that where will the new MBA graduates go nowadays?    Sarcasm aside,  it seems we are making historical headlines on a daily, hourly basis.   Well,  it sucks to be a trader these days and it sucks to own any of the financial stocks and it sucks even more if you happen to be an employee of the companies that are in question these days.   We definitely have our strongest sympathy to those who are the true casualties of this mess.

The real and only question remains on most people's mind tonight is, "how many more financial companies will fail?"   A list of companies that are in immediate danger seems to grow day by day, WM, WB  maybe...and this list can definitely grow.  Bets on government action related to individual companies is currently off because it appears they've made it clear during the last few days that it will not inject anymore taxpayer's money to bailout any troubled financial entity.    In our opinion, we wish them good luck coordinating "private" entities doing all of the rescuing.     So, is this a good thing?   In the short term, it probably isn't and we are definitely going to see much more turmoil and pressure.    In the long term, allowing troubled companies to fail may be a good thing.   It probably ensures that mistakes will not be repeated by other financial companies in the future without the constant reminder of pulling a Lehman!

As far as market goes, we continue to be in a total "watch and see" mode as the drama unfolds minute by minute.     Market technicals are pretty depressing and we'll almost for sure test July low's on all major indexes with a good chance to go lower still.   SPX, has now violated 7/15 lows making 1170 next support.  At this point, we prefer evidence of a purge to see a bottom and the afternoon had signs of it.  Sideline money conviction may be gained by a big downside day was the thought recently, but unless AIG pulls of an amazing all night-er,  today's big sell off day may not be enough just yet.    As many people believed, the biggest story of this week is now AIG and it will have to have an ending one way or another very soon.    Again, all bets are off as to the outcome of AIG and market impact because it's simply not worth to bet on unknowns.  Don't forget the unwinding of Lehman assets is going to take time and companies big and small will be stating their exposure to Lehman that may hurt a few too many.  Things such, companies lending Lehman shares for convertible notes offerings will cause dilution to some stocks is one example of an unknown to the unwinding that will occur.

Tomorrow, we have the Fed day and as well as GS, BBY reporting in pre market.    Anyone care to wage on the reaction? lol  Again, as we have mentioned a while ago, short term pain can definitely ensure a healthier trend down the road.   If we can somehow get all of the bad stuff cooked in during the next month or two, with real action, maybe then we can start seeing some stability and potentially a turn toward the end of the year.

Bottom line, we are still monitoring the trading action closely and looking for trading opportunities if they come up.  Just by today's action, you could see how foolish it would have been to go long anything thinking the market was bouncing off morning gap down.  The market seemed balanced,  no aggressive selling early and made a few thinking of a reversal, bounce underway.   This is why we said,...'to each his own' ..and ' be safe', as it is easy to get fooled in this environment.  Things will stay very volatile next few days and it's absolutely essential not to get caught up emotionally with this market!.  Let's see what we wake to, including the possibility of the FED doing something before the open.

..what's new?..

Oh well,   just another bailout with an injection of $85 billion of taxpayer money!.   Now what?....As expected the sentiment is mixed, if you've followed this closely you know this outcome was not going to rocket the market futures, but if it didn't happen,  it surely would have shot the market dead.   Basically,  it's another band-aid and all that will most likely happen is the negative bias will turn somewhere else and/or someone else.    We witnessed more of this today as MS was looking to be next in line for a run sell- off,  forcing the company to their earnings after the close to avoid more damage.     Maybe,  putting the the taxpayer on the hook will give the market some relief ( sounds ridiculous, but true..lol),  but we stand by what we've been saying and that is there is no reason to step in front of the bus!.  

At least,  we held the new support of SPX 1170, which may give us something to work from, reverse..bounce,  if we can just avoid another crisis in a financial firm in the next little while.   We had a huge volume/ reversal day in signifcant areas eg. DIA and if technicals can override the market turmoil, it should be now.  That's the 2 day outlook before the weekend, we'd still keep all trades on a short leash, number of positions to a minimum.

The market is under significant pressure, investors concerns have not changed overnight and will stay uncommitted as to getting in front of the bus.  To put it into perspective,  there is one trade and it is a stuffed cash trade!.   When we talk of needing sideline money to come back,  we are not talking a piggy bank savings here.   There is a hoard of cash in Money Market Funds that will eventually make this market rocket,  but it needs conviction and capitulation would get the ball rolling!.......unfortunately, we just can't roll as the Gov't keeps getting it's hands in the way.  

There has been nearly a ``trillion`` added to money markets since we started this crisis in August of 2007.   This is about $400billion more cash raised than the last bear market in 2000-2003.  When this ``trillion`` balance falls and it will fall in the hundreds of billions,  it will create an incredible Bull rush!!!.   So, do you want get in front of the bus now and risk not participating with the billions that will move the market because you blew your cash now!...Just something to think about if you`re frustrated, impatient day over day to make money by trading..investing.  

..making the rounds at JPM offices today

..in London, UK...Manchester United's New sponsor....

Simply Crazy..

It's very tough not to get emotional with this market today.  "There is no rational basis for the movement in our stock", MS CEO.  This could apply to many stocks today!.  Whether you are just watching or flipping stuff, this is the kind of day you wish would end sooner than later.    The point decline across the board is simply ridiculous.   The extreme volume suggests this is more than casual stuff.  If you stayed away from the financial sector last few days, you basically did yourself a huge favor.   The irony is, that today's only middle of the week, we have two more days to go and Friday is also option expiration day.

Oil and gas jumped quite a bit today,  but that didn't inspire many of the commodity plays.    Yes, they made a good attempt intraday, but facing an earlier 400pt decline, it was easy to go back there and more, nothing will survive the kind of pressure witnessed today.   At just 3:20pm, the market hit new rebound highs!.  Coal API 2 was up 5% overseas in the morning, but that couldn't make today's moves last for more than 30min each time on individual coal stocks.  The major story is that GS / MS taking a massive pounding as people suggest both companies need to find buyer or partner, preferably a commercial bank, in order to survive down the road.    You can argue whether this is logical or not but the fact is, those stocks are being pushed on extreme volume suggesting those people with real buying(or selling) power are making the final vote.

We are not hoping for a quick turnaround.   We do hope that whatever the worst case scenario, let it happen the next few weeks.   Trading resembles gambling these days and this is simply bad for the business.    There currently isn't any strategy that works with this market other than "luck"!     Even for shortsellers, you constantly hope that we repeatedly get blowups from the market which isn't going to happen on a daily basis.   Our experience tells us that it's getting to that capitulation point where people just had enough and don't want to deal with it anymore.    You do that by selling anything and everything down the pipe and call it quits.   For now, we simply have to keep our heads really cool and go through this without getting bruised!

...Paulson for president..;)??

There is momentum trading,  which we've become very familiar with and have loved over the years.  This week, we've experienced a momentous trading circus and hope we don't ever see it again!.  What is it Willie said??,....."Mamas don't let your babies grow up to be Cowboys"... Change Cowboys to Traders after this roller coaster ride of emotions!.  What we saw on Thursday was just more fuel to an already exhausting week and we`re not just talking about the late day rally off the U.S mop up plan!.   The trading ranges on stocks from low to highs intraday are the wildest we can remember and not just in those being attacked (GS..MS..).   Stocks were having incredible ranges, eg., a $30 stock goes up and than falls $24, before climbing to $33 at close.  Yep, and that's a bloody coal stock with a 30% range... MS probably had a 100% price range..lol. . Midday, just before the announcement of the UK shorting plan,  it felt like doom or a final stage of capitulation as stocks we closely follow,  slowly slid lower and lower on weaker volume.     A collapse was imminent it seemed,  all it would have taken was wind of one big hedge, a fund, who'd had enough and start to liquidate.  This would set off domino's... off a cliff.    One thing only on our mind at this point was believe it or not and that was the Fed, the gov't was on high alert and would do SOMETHING!!.  Did you actually think Paulson was going to let GS be destroyed??? .   Something, he did/  they did has boxed adverse market conditions.    The world got it started,  even though the ensuing rally based on the U.K`s FSA headline seemed like just another reason to sell into as it was there and not here!.    But,  what this did was put pressure on the SEC here to do something and after the close it was pretty evident they were gonna stick a fork into short selling, in what capacity is not clear, yet, but there will be an untouchable..un-shortable group of related financial stocks for sure.   The UK plan was followed by word of a government toxic clean up job, honestly, we never read or heard of the RTS!.   This covers the bond market.   Next this morning is a treasury 50 billion guaranty program for the much scrutinized, possible run on Money Market funds for a fee covering the casual investor.  This is a huge relief!.    Incredible, historic events to take the U.S off an "orange' alert!.     As we said yesterday, the selling has not been "casual stuff", extreme forces were at work, orchestrated or not by more than one entity to destroy.   Heads will probably roll, investigations will go on for years possibly to find the root of all this.   Okay, that's the X-files version!..lol....You can say this collapse was inevitable and could have been seen coming a year or years ago, but those responsible for the havoc were not slowly building up short positions for a year.    If you even just watched and were not trading the ongoings midday, you could not help, but feel scared to death of would was on the edge!.   We are drained and many of you are as well, we're sure!.  If it wasn't for the Internet to use in the future, we'd be buying all the Financial newspapers this weekend to stash away and hold and show our 'cowboys' one day. 

Maybe the unwinding of Wall Street will be boxed in from here, but as far as trading today goes, it will still be a fast and furious playing field where you better have a big bladder or your gains may go flush before you get a chance to go flush!

We want to see " CONVICTION " and not just the enthusiasm we'll see early today.  The conviction we want is of what we discussed the other day and that is to see money come back in an orderly manner starting next week.   We want stability now, fear leaving will take sometime.  So, considering the trip of this week, we'll gladly just watch, maybe pull of a few trades quick trades and begin our much needed weekend.   We hope all survived, enjoy your weekend!. 

DJIM #38, 2008

We all knew this saga was going to come to an end sooner or later, we just didn't how or when!    For most of market participants' sake,  this financial crisis is better off ending now than later.    So, here comes the finally!    In addition to the transformation/ transparency of the financial model(s), trading rules, as we know it,  we also have the proposal to bail out the entire bad sub-prime assets!    This is being proposed by the current administration as we speak and it will cost around 700 billion!     To put this number in perspective, current U.S. deficit is around 10.6 trillion and this will effectively increase the deficit by nearly 7%!

The good thing about this rescue is that it will absolutely stop the bleeding of our financial market.   For most financial company executives, except Lehman's, of course,  they can breath a sigh of relief!    Chances are, with this bailout plan, we should not see any more big institutions go under anytime soon!    This will also cause an immediate stop to the constant selling due to the headlines regarding write-downs and capital injection etc.    In most eyes, this action may have finally effectively put a "short" term bottom in this market.  An opportunity for a fresh start is what we all seek.

Now, the bad thing you may say is this bailout plan is that it doesn't address any market concern other than the financial sector.    We also don't really want to get into the discussion of the sudden increase of U.S. deficit as they have been printing money for a long while now.   Hopefully, market's attention will slowly, but surely turn back onto the economy and earnings this upcoming earning season.

With two of the rockiest trading weeks behind us, we are actually looking forward to the rest of the month and beyond.    Whatever the opportunities or misses you think you could've played,  just leave those thoughts behind you now.  To be honest, looking at the DJIA/ SPX flat week close, if you took the week off...you didn't miss anything!..lol.   Without constantly having the market at the mercy of the headlines of financial institution fumbles,   we can finally and rationally make some logical trading decisions from this point on.     Also, with the stabilization of the financial market,  we don't expect that many more 400 point swing, so we can better manage our trading game.   Bottom line,  it's time to leave our gambling mentality and get back into trading zone.

Lot`s of work to do this Q, as we see below...

Equities            1-day/week/month/YTD
S&P 500   1255  4.0%   0.3% -1.8%  -14.5%
NASDAQ   1745  2.8% -1.2% -8.5%  -16.3%
DJIA         11388 3.3% -0.3% -0.4%  -14.1%
FTSE          5311 9.6% -0.1% -5.2% -30.5%

..It all makes sense!

Yeah, right!...Nothing really made sense today, sure after Friday's and 1 hour from Thursday of huge gains, we expected a pullback of sorts,  but nobody envisioned the market would give all of Friday's gains amidst all the happenings that should have been positive for some sectors.   If you told us a huge short squeeze in Oil ahead of Oct. expiration, a tumbling record day $USD would not at least boost Commodity stocks to a decent close,  we'd say you're nuts!.   Sure, a surging Oil and a declining $USD isn't good for the broad averages,  but when one of the events is a very positive buyback from MSFT,  you would not expect the NASD to give away over 4%, would you?.   Anyways, we don't have an interest in Techs as we've been saying due to earnings concerns this Q, but the action in commodity stocks that we're looking/ expecting for was very spotty in all the groups.    Once again, the trading ranges were insane.   A look at the coal stocks and you'd think we were back in the twilight zone from last week... lows to high spreads and everywhere in between swings intra-day,  WLT $62- 69.4, MEE $42- 48,  JRCC $31.5-36.5,  ANR $63-71.... Throw in the fact most of the stocks gave up their gains after the afternoon Oil spike and you may feel demoralized trading these stocks.    As disappointing/ confusing as it was, we still believe in slowly building up positions into autumn, primarily Coals, Ag's- Chemicals.   We still don't like Steel because of pricing pressure, we noted recently.  The Coals, Ag's do not have the same symptoms and we'd start looking here to start.

It's unrealistic to think this tainted market was going to give the all green- buy the market signs right away.  It will take time to see stabilization and confidence come.   It will not occur overnight and it shouldn't.  The faster the haggling over details in the rescue plan ends, the better it will be for all.  This plan has implications all around, commodity related as well.   This is the new thing to deal with now, volatility coming from whatever the sentiment is like coming from Washington.

Buffett trumps Paulson

The big news did not come during the market hours, it came in after hours.   In case you haven't heard yet, Berkshire Hathaway is making a 5 billion investment in Goldman Sachs' preferred shares.   Why is this news important?   Because we don't remember the last time Mr. Buffett lost money on a large investment like this.    It's also particularly interesting that Mr. Buffett chose Goldman Sachs, out of all of the financial institutions and at such a turbulent time to make this kind of investment.   We can only conclude that he sees value and opportunity in the sector, and especially in Goldman Sachs.   Perhaps, he's also feeling that the end of the financial turbulence may be near an end.    More importantly is what all his followers will think and hopefully follow in time into the financials.    In any case, this is huge news, in our opinion.   The significance of Mr. Buffett venturing into the financial market just beats about any sovereign investment into our financial system.

Frankly, we wish Buffett could be running things instead of Paulson.     Overall, market had another bad day today as the market is losing the confidence of this called government bailout.  This is the volatility we discussed coming out of the Washington struggle into the trading day.   In addition, the fear of slowing economic growth worldwide is hurting a lot of companies too.    As a result, a lot of beta stocks that performed well in a booming economy all suffered badly today. 

Our "love and hate" group of commodity stocks also suffered a pretty big pullback today due to world economy stresses.  For a few plays, they have given back quite bit of gains from the recent runup.   As we have said before, we aren't buying huge chunks of these plays but rather, building small bits at a time and we did add some positions throughout the day.

Again, the focus is going to be centred around Goldman tomorrow and we think what's good for Goldman is probably good everyone else.   We should have a good start tomorrow.    The last thing we need, at this point is to get sold off right after the open.    The scary thing is, with today's drop is last week's low is already coming into play and believe us, nobody wants it to be tested anytime soon.  The overdone action from high to low in the past few days should work great,  if the Goldman/ Buffett news can also coincide with some positive developments out of Washington.   We could have a big day or two to finish the week.

...Paralyzed

While Congress sits on the dock wasting time, we are left watching the market roll away!.   Simply, as they vent on behalf of the public and their egos,  the market is paralyzed waiting for what should have been a quick resolution.   Buffett and Bill Gross have weighted in on the importance of all this.. Is anybody listening?.   By the time this plan is done, it might be so diluted it will look like GSachs stock and nobody will be happy!.  GREAT!... now Obama/ McCain invited themselves to the pig roast, a little late and probably will only make this take longer to get done!...All this is an incredible distraction, seemingly all traders have their eyes on the tube leaving broad market volumes to dwindle down..down.  

Anyways..... frustrated, distracted, paralyzed.....The way trading is going or may go,  it maybe only the non- trading taxpayers that are going to make money out of this plan..

cRIMMed

We'll avoid discussion of the " Deal or no Deal", circus in Washington, like we said, GREAT!..here comes Obama/ McCain!.

So... is RIMM the sign of things to come in the near term?   Our beloved RIMM came out with earnings that simply met  expectation with guidance on the soft side.    For a company that taunts endless growth,  this is just not acceptable.    Well, this is also has to do with the fact that we are already in a very fragile trading environment.     Last time we checked, RIMM was trading at $78 and change and that's a drop of about 20%.     If this drop holds, effectively, RIMM is down about 50% from its high this year.

This, of course is a concern to us.    RIMM, along with AAPL, GOOG, BIDU...  are considered beta stocks to us.    They simply represent growth stocks, period.   If these stocks start to get hit one after another, market will be under more stress on top of an already overstressed environment.

For most of the market participants, there's simply more hiding than trading these days.    When the market stabilizes somewhat,  we wouldn't be surprised to see a steadier flow of money into this market.    For now,  we just have to let the market show us what to avoid and what has potential.    We have been looking and adding a little bit of commodity stocks lately and recently we have been concentrating a bit more on the natural gas related stocks.    The action in the etf UNG is showing an encouraging pattern and many "shale" plays on our screen showing some stability as well.

Tomorrow is the last day to this otherwise low volume week.    We are pretty sure that all of us are looking forward to the weekend already.    It'll be interesting to see if the bailout deal gets finalized by Monday. 

DJIM #39, 2008

Unfortunately,  it seems the noise this morning is that Republican holdouts have not given their assurance 'votes' on the rescue plan, Wachovia is being sliced and diced, including billions of losses to be absorbed, while across the pond,  U.K/ Europe goes through nationalizing everything and anything...Bradford & Bingly (mortgage lender), Belgo- Dutch (banking Insurance group) etc.   Confidence is fragile this morning..simply.    The bill could get approved on Monday or get pushed to Wednesday.   Treasury intends to start purchasing assets quickly with a sizable amount initially in order to give it a jump start.  However, it will likely take the Treasury 2/3 weeks to start purchasing assets in order to be able to set up the operational requirements such as appointment of asset managers    There are many unclear aspects to the plan in relation to many different things and it probably will weigh on the plan till all is resolved.    

The stock rebound from big early losses on Friday, is just a blurb now and we're back to being frustrated, paralyzed waiting as all of you.   It's a rainout trading day as of this morning,  the playing field is covered by this 'TARP'!.

777 crash landing...Game Over?

It wasn't a Boeing jet, it was a DJIA tank......1.4 trillion wiped out for 700 billion.....To say market just had a catastrophic day is actually an understatement.    To say that market participants are utterly disappointed with the turn of events is another understatement.   Folks, we have reached an epic level of volatility that probably none of us have ever seen or imagined before.  Poli-trading is what this has become.   It's a shame.... Fool me once, fool me twice in a week....that is what market players are saying tonight after the vote.   Why would they go to a vote??

Come think of it,  the failure to pass the "bailout bill",  maybe should not be that shocking considering the action proceeding it last week.  Still,  please don't say Buffett/ GS or JPM picking up WAMU pieces would have happened,  if they didn't have word this would PASS!.    Everyone has been fooled..once, twice.  The big boys, too!.   Don't blame , yourself if you got caught believing.  We think most market participants just outright refused to believe in the possibility of a failed vote.   It's almost unimaginable the risk that has unfolded now.   After all this, can anyone imagine what the financial sector, the market, and economy will do if this bill fails?    Well, it looks like we'll find out sooner than later.

So is there anything safe out there?  If you find one green stock that isn't a bearish etf, let us know!  Every commodity stock 20%++ down, AAPL hit around 20%...etc....  For now and probably the next few weeks,  cash is the only choice and overnight holding is not an issue.   No more heroes, one or two holds can beat you up.   Helmets first!.  This was not the wash out expectation, more bleeding will come,  it just may not come 777 at once.

If you have been sitting dry all along the past few weeks, we'd say good job and it's even more important to curb your enthusiasm to "look" for trading opportunities now.   Next few days might be even more dramatic as market will try to find victims to slaughter.    Hell, would have happened if the shorting clamp wasn't in???

DJIA -6.98% closing at 10365.45, the Nasdaq,- 9.14% to finish at 1983.73, and the S&P -8.79% to finish at 1106.39