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Thursday
Sep182008

Simply Crazy..

It's very tough not to get emotional with this market today.  "There is no rational basis for the movement in our stock", MS CEO.  This could apply to many stocks today!.  Whether you are just watching or flipping stuff, this is the kind of day you wish would end sooner than later.    The point decline across the board is simply ridiculous.   The extreme volume suggests this is more than casual stuff.  If you stayed away from the financial sector last few days, you basically did yourself a huge favor.   The irony is, that today's only middle of the week, we have two more days to go and Friday is also option expiration day.

Oil and gas jumped quite a bit today,  but that didn't inspire many of the commodity plays.    Yes, they made a good attempt intraday, but facing an earlier 400pt decline, it was easy to go back there and more, nothing will survive the kind of pressure witnessed today.   At just 3:20pm, the market hit new rebound highs!.  Coal API 2 was up 5% overseas in the morning, but that couldn't make today's moves last for more than 30min each time on individual coal stocks.  The major story is that GS / MS taking a massive pounding as people suggest both companies need to find buyer or partner, preferably a commercial bank, in order to survive down the road.    You can argue whether this is logical or not but the fact is, those stocks are being pushed on extreme volume suggesting those people with real buying(or selling) power are making the final vote.

We are not hoping for a quick turnaround.   We do hope that whatever the worst case scenario, let it happen the next few weeks.   Trading resembles gambling these days and this is simply bad for the business.    There currently isn't any strategy that works with this market other than "luck"!     Even for shortsellers, you constantly hope that we repeatedly get blowups from the market which isn't going to happen on a daily basis.   Our experience tells us that it's getting to that capitulation point where people just had enough and don't want to deal with it anymore.    You do that by selling anything and everything down the pipe and call it quits.   For now, we simply have to keep our heads really cool and go through this without getting bruised!