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Thursday
Jul242008

...bring on the small cap earnings...

Again, money continued the shift into financials from energy.   There are undeniable spurts of heavy distribution days since early July in anything energy related,  you definitely have to be careful and not do much, only trade the intraday moves if you want go into these groups.  The flip side is upward momentum in financials.  The bad news continues, but seemingly everybody sees a flower in the weeds.   Yesterdays, late day was ignited by an influential Deutche bank analyst who said his bearishness on the banking was reduced over the past week.    "Bad results are good when expectations are so low", he said.  This is not our trading strategy and we'll just wait and let this dry, we'd love to short a few of these puppies and probably will very soon.  It seems very unbelievable that all of a sudden every mom and pop investor sees it the same way as the analyst.  This seems too orchestrated and bigger funny money is involved in this move.  It's all a bit strange. 

Ag's, it's a big day ahead as POT reports and no doubt will beat and raise.  The question is how much has been baked into the stock price, on the other hand below $ 200 should allow for upside on good numbers.  We gambled a bit at the close for an early morning trade.   The problem with this commodity sector is how much emphasis the price of oil/gas has on it.    A looming strike at some plants has a cloud over it as well, any agreement will positively affect POT.    Potash makes potassium-rich fertilizer and improves the taste, nutritional value of many crops and with many parts of the world having their 2nd meal of the day finally,  while we have as many as we want.   Instead , natural gas prices is used in potash production affects this groups stock price more than it should.    It's not exactly coal or shales is it, these two don't exactly have anything to do with rice and corn do they?.  Anyways, we'll have a good look at Potash and its neighbour stocks.  A good report to go with a rising oil price could be a good - great combination to work with.

A few small cap earnings plays emerged...

AXYS,  we' ve had this one on DJIM before, unfortunately this eps winner doesn't hang around for an entire quarter.   AXYS, reported another strong Q as sales grew 40% y/y to 60.3mln, EPs .54c beating the street estimates of $56mln/.48. Backlog was also a record from DOD programs and is same arena as FLIR. Traded from $66 to $72 and now on our shadowlist.

ILMN,  she's back!,  it seems every Q we jump on this ones back.  Yesterday, we bought the morning pullback, $88's and watched it climb to over $92, a nch.  Remember don't chase so fast, let it come to you.   This was another great Q with .04 eps upside and a 30mln increase over the mid range estimate and improved guidance.  Everything is on track at ILMN and being in the healthcare tech sector, growing genetic anaysis market its not a bad place to be in.