..indecisive is just fine with us.!

Everybody knew a hike was inappropriate as it would rattle the markets worldwide, what most notably the big currency traders and many market participants wanted was for the FED to show a hike was just around the corner, a reassurance we spoke of prior to yesterdays trading day to wake the dollar.   Instead these players got the bare minimum, which includes a wishy- washy...indecisive hands- tied FED.   It wasn't enough to 'pump' the dollar,  but it was just what we wanted yesterday....  "Also, if the FED is wishy washy as we expect, the dollar bulls will not be happy and this will help the commods'.    If the dollar is to rally, the market needs reassurance rates will go up sooner than later.   These plays include many "Shale" plays and a few Steel plays.." .   Going forward if the ECB does not raise rates next month and if the FED doesn't give more hints of a hike in September the dollar will most likely pare its gains.     Simply, this will give us more time to exploit the commodity plays here.

The FED reaction was initially muted,  we were actually surprised the market took the statement so well as it pushed higher eventually.   This was occurring as our commodity stocks pressed higher,  something was amiss and eventually at the close the Dow settled where we thought it would, a measly +4pts up...as in nowhere fast!.    As we pointed out,  we would not be chasing the usual 'high beta' suspects if the market bounced at some point.   Looking at the finish line at the close, one part of our preparation/ strategy into yesterday was to go with our commodity plays on weakness before or after FED decision.    The easy route is to go with what we centered on recently, the Shales, the Steels and not the cooling off Coals, Agr stocksi.    A members question might have got you 5pts on a steel, SCHN yesterday.    After the wish washy statement going with Shales, Steels was the ticket.    We're blind to many sectors in the overall market, so we can only say we had the right ones in our world as these plays were the ones that advanced and finished better than the any high GOOG, AAPL beta stocks.    We are not saying it's gonna be an easy train ride for the commods' again now,  what we are saying is the FED will not de-rail them so fast!.   You still have to be selective, either recycling the stocks or sectors, while the FED is held hostage by the price of OIL!. 

So here we are next morning, futures hit, dollar hit, many an analyst probably ready to make up for their recent exuberance over RIMM heading into earnings by saying this is now an opportunity of a lifetime..lol... Well, at least that's what we think will happen, unfortunately the everyday retail investor is most likely tired of their hype and tired of this market.    An email from a member put this market into context, many an investor is just staying out of the market, many have stayed out completely for months waiting for the market to change and not willing to play the commodity game.   We think a lot of this is probably because the prices of these stocks look to be in nosebleed country.    Unfortunately, they don't seem to want to recall these were half, a third of where they were just months ago!.   The same scene may occur months from now when some of 'Shales' are trading over $100,  this of course depends if they keep on showing the shale has big potential for commercial development.  It has so far.  Millions are being poured in!.    This is not the same market we know many of you from when we were discovering earnings gems, potential IBD's and trading them from the 10's up!.   That was a happy time economy, you are not going to see this now.   Many of these stocks have been regulars on IBD for months  and many have exited the list.   It's a whole new ball game and you have to make changes in your trading game plan.   We had to!..Get over it, if you haven't yet.    It's a tight market and it's getting tighter as in there is less sectors to play week after week.   If you're not in the right place, you're accounts are not moving or worse going in the wrong direction.