...quite predictable now

Last Thursday..."..we are getting into oversold territory and it's not the end of the world.   Do consider selling some though into any rally.   Waiting for Oil price dips is what the market will most likely wait on to pounce and bounce.    It just might become too predictable and we'll start to see volatile days trading off the price of crude.    Geez, that sounds like subprime stuff all over again,  if we get close to that volatility".

This is exactly what we saw today as a substantial downward move occurred in crude ($-4.71).  The drop and roll scenario played out as lower oil brought out buying interest in the afternoon to close market around highs.   We don't expect this or any near term move to last further than say $125 Crude, so we'd ride the bounce tide until.     Tech was the strength...finally!.....On Friday....we noted....."This would be a blessing as nothing witnessed Thursday gave hope of a reversal.      Maybe it's wishful thinking, but it's the only thing we can see happening Friday to initiate an intraday trade.      Despite the modest green in the major indices,  we were hardly impressed with the NASD pulling off a +16.   Reason is the action in AAPL, BIDU, RIMM simply continued to suck even after the big stumble this week.   Considering we always use these stocks as a measuring stick of sorts on the market, we were disappointed and left wondering wazzup?."  

Okay, we got what we wanted post Memorial weekend not before, as the momo techs performed.   Shouldn't really be a surprise considering there was not much money left to play as of pre-holiday Friday.    These are momentum names we want to be looking to trade, intraday, short term before we consider the commods' as of now.    Today leading the NASD (+1.5%), RIMM, AAPL, BIDU were all up nicely and we 'll throw in V  off the NYSE as the stocks off our DJIM list that fit this trading theme.  Throw in SOHU too.    As of now,  we don't see a catalyst or even one in the very near future for this market to do anything but bounce here and then stall from last weeks oversold state.   Unless we can get a catalyst to out play Oil and summer boredom, we will most likely come down to last weeks lows soon enough.   Keeping this in mind, we'd be selective and keep positions small.

As far as we're concerned,  we are getting what we want here!.  We've had a great run with our commodity stocks and now we are getting a NICE pullback as the $CRX has fallen from the 1029 to 969 close today.    These are the same levels at 960-970 that we said on May15th in alerts was eyeing the 1000 mark.   The fall in shippers has continued, but finally found support from the 50ema for DRYS, TBSI.."....buying on dips doesn't mean trying to catch a a bottom, buying a 15% dip and knowing a trend has changed is different than now catching a bottom at 20%..we just always prefer to know a trend change has been confirmed and go harder than nibbling in".   We have seen significant drops in these stocks since discussing them in the forum last week.     Unless, you are trading full time and can flip fast buying these would have been unsettling only a few trading hours/days later.    The reason we are pointing this out is we all have to play it cool now and not let the malaise in the market take us down with it.   It is difficult to sit around, watch and not jump in on things such as seemingly over extended dips.    So, as of this trading close,  we have no reason to think the commods' are ready to go up just yet!.     What we'll do now is we will let the $CRX dictate any reason to get back in even if only for a quickie.   Remember..morning or intraday $CRX  seems to lead and we should have plenty of time to get in on a steel, coal..whatever.    The doldrums are no reason to chance now and blow the rush, including your profits, we've had from the mid March run.    There are better things to do this summer than blow it now, so be patient and be selective.     There is also a lot of noise around the Financials now that has an unsettling tone suggesting we may be in for some problematic surprises.    You'd hate to wake up to some surprise at this point.  We've all been through enough of those the past year.