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« DJIM #44 2008 | Main | ..what now? »
Tuesday
Nov042008

Buckle up...

We've wanted the low- high ranges to recede, but we didn't expect everyone to line up at the Polls early today and give us a measly 155 range today.   The good thing is the daily charts on the major indices, including things like the NDX look they are a welcoming in a pop.   Generally , it looks like the market is gearing up for something, doesn't it?.   As far as today, it was a whole lot of nothing in terms of trading and there was just nothing meaningful in terms of corporate news.

We've all wondered at one point or another,  which President is good for this market?.    In truth,  a new President probably cannot determine the outcome of any market.    Why is that?   What someone promises is not exactly the same as what one is actually going to do for any particular issue.  Today, we saw a move in Solars,  but isn't it rather late to play an 'election' edge' the day before?.    We probably think so!.   At this point,  we have to stay very open- minded as to the longer term impact of a new President and a potentially new administration.    For now,  what everyone cares about is if we are going to have an immediate rally or a sell- off following the vote.     Does the election result even matter when it comes to this market?    There's no way of knowing what some of those big institution's managers are thinking at this moment.   We bet they are wondering the same about their comrades.   If anything,  it'll be more of a chain reaction as oppose to an unanimous consensus on one particular action.   Considering all the macro issues flowing,  this Presidential vote may play a larger role than what has historically occurred down the road.   The average 1-2 week performance market gains is about 1% following an election,  we get that in an hour these days.

Today, if anything, the little play EBS  made up for any of doldrums in the market.    Yes,  it isn't like the huge small cap winner in the past,  but it's really nice to have one in the current market condition that hits 20% in a few trading days.     We also have EMS  on the table and despite some boring action,  it has held well off the earning gap.    Right now, we are basically waiting for this market to make a move.    A lot of indices are showing a similar pattern and we think a breakout around this election, is likely.   It may be brief though.   Nobody is willing to put any huge bets on anything these days,  we just don't know if those crazy volatile are still just around the corner and/ or if some negative news will from the sky.   VIX (chart up yesterday) has gone down considerably the last few days, but it's still higher than any level in the previous 5 years.

Like most people, we'll be glued to tube to watch the progress of this election.    Lets just hope whatever happens , we can get some good action in the market post - election for an extended period of time.