Have we been here before?

More last hour, last minute breakdowns,  SPX approaching recent low, sour market mood...... oh boy!  

While economic news lately is all about rapid deterioration in key macro indicators,  the stock market is acting in a familiar fashion.    Unfortunately,  the familiar fashion of this market is not something we like nor any of us want to see much longer.  However,  we are here again, at SPX 850 set for a potential breakdown or at least a visit to last weeks 818 intraday low.    Few months down the road,  undoubtedly we are going to ask ourselves "what we could've done or should've done?",  kind of questions.    Right now,  we are not capable of seeing where we are going to be 2-3 days, sometimes 2-3 hours now.   Fundamentally,  we are all playing the same game here.   Whether you are a big or a small player, we are all basically facing the same set of game parameters and rules.   The thing that is happening right now, is that the trading rule set and the forces that affect the trading, are definitely being rewritten as we speak.    Can you imagine playing the game Monopoly without any rules?    Oh yes, you can make up the rules as you play along, but with so many players involved,  who's going to get it right at the end?

Staying neutral and unbiased, perhaps?    Yes,  that is probably the most sensible mentality, but it's just sometimes so tough to act and follow, especially if you are a full -time trader.    A familiar "opportunity" these days can turn into a trap.   A good setup can turn into an ugly one.   All these turning points can literally happen in a matter of minutes without you reacting to it fast enough.    This is just extremely tough on traders, mentally.    There is no quick cure, though.    We think patience is required for both the market and traders' sense of rationality return to a somewhat normal spectrum.    It can take weeks or perhaps months more to get there.   We have to be prepared for it.    Right now, there's no need to beat yourself up if you took a loss or a bad trade.    Since 99% of the traders are facing the same dilemma, it is just normal to feel that way.

So what do we do here at DJIM?   At this moment, we are simply trying to out survive other traders, as oppose to out trade them.    By the way, you can still lose big time while out trading most of the other traders at same time.  The most comical is when they say this or that fund is outperforming the SPX this year, it's only down 20%..lol..

This possible re-test again is on the agenda and the outcome this time will either create just another leg down or spawn another 'bottoms up' day.    Unfortunately, it seems most are now complacent, lackadaisical or just would prefer to accept the fact of going lower.  It's too calm out there in many respects, maybe it's just part exhaustion or a shoe is about to drop on the Bull or Bear.   We have no conviction as to which of these 2 potential scenarios plays out here,  we just feel it's a trap of some sorts this lead up,  who gets poached is to be seen.