..runaway $USD

This market has simply become a mental patient who's ready to burst out in a hysterical behaviour without a moment's notice.      Frankly, things did not look that bad until the last hour of trading of yesterday where a lot of things just broke down.   Besides, the obvious global recession noise,  we are faced with a rocket of a $USD  that is completely interwined.  The huge dollar rally is causing trade in all aspects to freeze worldwide and something must be done by gloabl leaders on this front!.   Still, every rocket runs out of fuel and so will this one very soon and that will stop the commodity sell -off momentarily at least should cause a run-up.    Monitor the $XDE for intraday possibility of a commodity reversal.    We wanted some backfilling to stabilize this market this week,  but now that notion seems too naive at best after the last hour.   One thing is obvious,  it's that the more we test the recent low,  the more likelihood we'll break it and panic will ensue once that happens.   Also, we are now also at the bottom of one those 'triangles' on the SPX.   If you remember we discussed this same technical picture months ago, a picture that became a yo-yo as we banged back and forth off the upper and lower lines before any resolution.   We may have the same thing now, but back than we were not faced with such noise globally.    Just draw lines off October 10th low and October 14 high > to see what eyes are on.

On the earnings front, reports aren't exactly hitting the optimistic 'guidance' tone and this just adds to the pressure.    Has anyone noticed that we have been very quiet on the credit crisis and all the recent ups and downs were largely due to the economic headlines.     The real problem right now, is that there's no visibility and confidence is just not back.    Despite the fact many companies have lowered the guidance for the coming quarter and year, there's no telling if those guidance will be lowered again and how long this trend will continue!   It's just "cloudy" out there for most CEO's and they are letting it be known.   Yes, things are not disastrous at this moment, but trend suggests it will get worse, and perhaps much worse down the road.     Have we discounted all of the potential negative stuff 3 or 6 months or even further out down the road?   It is simply hard to say at this point.

Technically, there's a very high probability that the recent low will not hold.    When you see people are taking stuff off their portfolio as soon as Dow hits 9k and SPX hits 980, so,  you have to assume that those people are feeling that the bad market will persist for a long while.     Perhaps, we can all attribute to massive mutual fund/ hedge redemption and hope things will turn for a change next month.    However, right now, there's simply no immediate visibility of a stable market and we have another week and half trading to go in the month of October.  Also, AMZN came out with report that is disappointing in every way.   We feel AMZN has a much broader impact to the consumer than AAPL.   Bottom line overall, there's some major worrisome sign out there and we have no choice, but to try and avoid this fast market fight.

Simply, we need volatility (intraday ranges) to come down before institutional and fundamental investors return.  Until, we'll have a fast market.