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DJIMSTOCKS- since 2006 - Toronto, Canada/ London, U.K

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Entries by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader (119)

Monday
May282007

DJIM #22  2007

Maybe we should just tell you about our weekend to filler DJIM#22...;)  After last week, your guess is as good as ours as to what we might expect this week.  All we can hope for is maybe a few more billion dollar M&A deals to kick start the shortened week..anything to put some money to work.   We touched on the major indices this morning, we wish we could touch on stocks!!... Unfortunately, there is nothing of significance to talk about.   Our books are pretty clean, besides a few small scattered positions left into the weekend.  There was nothing jumping out..screaming buy me, buy me late in the week.   We laid out our plan last week to be selective, trade in smaller sizes and just sit back and watch things unfold for a bit.   We're still in earnings and so we still expect plays to show up out of the blue.   Only this time the time span of the play is likely to be much shorter in this environment.  As far as DJIM May earning plays, quite a few are grasping for air and a few are grasping at the 9ema above them.   At this point none of these plays have the potential to give us the points they did already did and so are put on the side for the time being. Does MA have the potential for another fast 15 pts as it did from $127 to 142's?.  Does CROX have the potential for almost 15 points again since being a DJIM buy.   Will stocks like NGA, SYNL now sitting under 9ema give us all the same rush as recently from these new levels?.   Simply the reward possibilities, the point possibilities are not there like they were before..so why play them now?.    A few plays like TTC and VRGY will continue to emerge, except we do not see them being what they could have been a month, a few weeks ago.   This does not mean you should ignore them.   The trip might be shorter but at this point you might just have to accept that as a market feature.  So, a few things traded late in the week include:

TTC, second day post earning saw the stock surge past $60. Not bad for a stock on sale at $56 the day before. A bounce in the market sure helped as this was just caught up in Thursday's selling. We loosened the leash a little and will give it more time.

ATV, this was one was tossed around the forum and the $30 dollar mark was already broken before EPS this Thursday. Anyways, good see readers are taking stocks off our Journal and watch listing them for potential  play.   ATV was profiled early May and we are back to trading it into earning.

VRGY, it definitely caught the right day for a earnings reaction. The reaction was rather lukewarm AH's to its earning, but around noon Friday it busted the high 27's on volume and never looked back closing near$30. Despite gapping 4 points last Q, it traded in a 2 point range for the next 3 months.  We'd like to see if this time is any different before continuing further with it.

CYPB,  if you got on Thursday notes on it, you made a quick 10% to highs of Friday. To us this CYPB is still facing selling pressure in the 17.50-60ish area.  A true break never occurred as the real volume came Thursday afternoon to buy.  You want to see volume to confirm another buy in.  This did not happen Friday morning as it crossed that resistance area.  See chart up for volume comparisons.   Simply, CYPB did not have volume to follow through and then continue to take out the highs of last week.  At this point, we'd wait for a move on volume through the highs now to play further.

Sunday
Jun032007

DJIM #23  2007

Last weekend the hope was a few billion dollar M&A deals to get the market stimulated again. A few billion turned into 60 billion worth of deals or more brought back from the Hampton's. Our one concern to stymie this market was if the Shang' would sooner than later unravel our market again.  A few did their best trying to make the stamp tax a double shot of the Shanghai surprise we saw early in the year. We didn't even touch on this in Wednesday's Journal because we saw it as a non event. As far as we're concerned, the Chinese government is gonna do things their way and it will take a few more maneuvers of this type to cause the bubble to burst and spread to here.  Likely they'll be careful now after the early year swoon.  Soon after the FOMC minutes came and we were off to the races.  Well...races, but not what we would call a sprint!.   Still...what last week did was provide some DJIM stocks an opportunity to come of their shell and play....So on to some names heading to the trading week...

TBSI, we are all familiar with this shipper now ( #8 IBD ), we were adding late in the day and think this is ready to resume upwards. While ESEA looks quite extended, TBSI keeps putting in tails off the 9ema (showing support).

ESEA, this shipper intro'd Thursday night turned into a 16% move come Friday. Yes, a full 16% as the open price (13.40) and later a dip gave a chance to catch most of this move. Of course, we took some profits but we were back for more during the day. The PE seemed to be below the norm for these shippers and probably helped out its cause.

DRYS, is another Greek shipper we took a position in.  If this sector continues to climb, we like where this one sits on the chart to play along. This is a good and fast mover when caught at the right time.  We took a smaller position as we wait to see if this has the ouzo to bust out.

MR CYNO, a couple of names here for months made it to IBD's front page this weekend as both busted out to new highs. CYNO was basing between 30-32 for about a month, while MR is getting quite jumpy, you really have no idea day to day what it is going to do.  Sometimes with quality names you just have stick it out.  The front page coverage might get them some more air this week. We'll see...

PCS, TTC, MFLO recent pick ups closed at NCH's or close.  A few others that have been around longer at DJIM.. GTI NTLS RCCC TRCR also remain strong.

FWLT CROX MA continue to get DJIM trading dollars, mostly on positive index days.  Not much can be said that hasn't been said about these stocks since their earnings.

NOVC, as we said, the easy money has been made and we are only looking to trade it when there is some signs of life. The biggest mistake you can make is trying to get a piece of NOVC, if you missed the first move.  Too may are looking for a repeat move.  It's not going to happen to that magnitude without more news, so there is no need to feel left out.  Also, do understand it is inevitable with biotechs that firms come out and raise targets to very high levels. They have no choice as now there is finally news.  These targets, sometimes 50-100% higher are looking a year and more down the road and are calculating a perfect storm of everything going right to that time.  The chances are a biotech will leave your mind in a week or two as another takes it's place.  It does with us.    Unless you are a long term speculative investor, you are unlikely to see those price targets hit for NOVC, CYBP etc.this summer.

PLPC, bought a few shares to tuck away, maybe this has a little HTC, EML in it. These types are only if you have space and time to spare in your book for some not so liquid stocks.

Thursday
Jun072007

...back to Back to Back

If you favorite baseball team pitcher gave up back to Back to BACK dingers, what would the manager do?. Chances are big, he could not watch the horror show anymore and pull the gopher ball pitcher out and send him to the showers!.   In reality, it's not much different with stocks.  How much can you stand before the pain threshold becomes unbearable?.   When do you become the true manager of your team, your portfolio and start pulling some strings to avoid further damage?  Today was as a good start.  Also, if you were thinking of buying today after the morning reversal down....unfortunately, by this time you are bringing in a mop up guy who really you have no confidence in or else he wouldn't be your mop up guy!.   Simply this relates as to why look for another stock to buy in the mid -innings/ intraday in a market like this, the mop up guy might be fresh from sitting on his butt, just like a stock that is up big all of a sudden... but how much does he have left in 'em before all want to cash in, especially those just waiting to dump the gift in a bad market?.   We're not planning to put new money to use.  We don't see the point of looking into buying fresh meat in this type of environment unless we are going to flip the daylights out of the stock.   In that case we/ you better be at the beginning of the run and not going in after a stock is up 9 pts like a UHAL.   What we have now is an environment where we will swing the daylights out of stocks on news or EPS or whatever that day.   These will be the short lived plays until this all subsides.   After a few days of negative markets, today was the day nobody cared what your name was.   There was no 'Cheers' about it.    The domino effect we've talked about was in full bloom as DJIM stocks finally took their lumps with the rest of the market.

Today was actually ugly,  if you want to get into how small we all are!.  Actually quite disgusting if you want the truth.  After 2 days where late dip buying showed there was ready money again, today came a different twist when the market proceeded to bounce strong.  This was a definite possibility for the afternoon considering the past 2 days and considering todays already exaggerated drop... we were waiting for a bounce rally of sorts.  It was the close that really mattered to us..   If the buyers didn't come we thought, then we'd blow off this market by the close.   Instead, it rallied strong until Maria B and the CNBC crew decided to bust out the Gross interview from his site as the last kick today to the overbought market.   Nice timing eh?.    Just when the market was making an impressive run, this comes on?.  Come on!.   This was so orchestrated that it stinks !.   Oh, we're all so small!.    The only thing you can do today is cover yourself before if it possibly gets out of hand.   For some this might be the only way to go.  If you are holding just a few positions, you were probably selling them off today or have enough confidence in a few to continue and make it a longer term hold.    If you are holding a sizeable portfolio, all you could do is dwindle the dollars invested down.   Ideally, you don't want to drop 100% to no positions and all cash, but you do want to make it manageable from here while reducing the risk of margin and or being close to 100% invested.  You need the weekend to at least evaluate and also to see tomorrow's reaction instead of acting hastily and going all cash.   Honestly, as bad as it looks after today (you never want to finish at the lows), we all need to take a chill pill and evaluate our books before drastic conclusions.  In a perfect market world some firm(s), or some big talking heads will come out in the days ahead and put Gross and his comrades into the woodshed with a rosy picture.  We nominate Paulson for the gig or his boy, Bernanke. 

If you really think about it, the overseas fear here and everywhere of the Shanghai, then the UK hike (even if expected) precipitated all of the action on this continent the 2 last days.  An excuse was all that was needed to bring our bond yields, rates on the fast rise to the surface. Guess, it pays to read the subtitles carefully.

Hey...Paris got out after 3 days in the can, maybe we can get out before the weekend too....but our names ain't Hilton

Sunday
Jun102007

DJIM #24  2007

In Sopranospeak, FUHGEDDABOUTIT! was the markets message Friday.  Unfortunatley, it won't be so easy going forward.  The rally defintely has felt true pressure and last week has fueled the bears.  What spawned the rally we've experienced for months was rehashed as earning (NSM) and M&A (X) activity were again two of the catalysts the spurred the recovery rally Friday. Oil helped and CNBC feeling the uproar from their audience got Gross to appear to elaborate, more like clarify on the headline they spewed Thursday afternoon.  All this closed out one wild week and if you took a chill pill Thursday night with us before drawing any drastic conclusions, you had no need to empty your book before the weekend.  What the recovery rally provided is it drew a line in the sand.   The lows on the major indices Friday will be the area to watch for many.  If we break this area, we will become very cautious of a secondary correction.   If this area is kept away from, we should be able to trade accordingly. One thing though is earning season is over and that major market catalyst is removed for the time being.  Can the market continue on with M&A activity pushing it till next earning Q.  We've got about 3-4 weeks to find out and we will trade in smaller sizes until, especially if playing this Q's DJIM names.   You want to be in size at the beginning of a potential earning move eg CROX, FWLT.  The first leg you could say.  At this point there is no way we would play these in the same sizes as before, we prefer to wait for a new crop and by that time we will know exactly where the market stands!. So for now we'll remain cautious and go with a manageable book.  Not too many positions and not oversized.  If this was a sign of volatility for the summer of 100+/-30+/- pts days, we'd prefer it to the laziness we often start to see at this time of the year.

Even after the tumultuous week there are more than a few DJIM's still trading near highs or making them. These are the stocks we are concentrating on. The partial theme here is to always play strong stocks!. Common sense says a stock that survived last week and finished near highs is a strong stock...common sense also tells you if the market starts showing signs of slipping again, these probably won't stay strong much longer.  Unless fertilizer is the next black gold!...A few of those are...

KMGB LXU TNH are all chemical stocks in one way or another, all showed strength before the rally clicked and so we were buying them again as the market gained strength. KMGB made it to the #40's in IBD this weekend.

CUB CROX RCCC NTLS MFLO still trade 9ema or above, very little damage sustained over the week.  Again 9ema is an area of short term support for most of the stocks we cover. We want to hold stocks above it, not below it!.

LPHI, GHM are fresh names (3-5 days off gap earnings) and of course are trading above 9ema.   

MA got some good news and might recapture the 9ema quickly from it.  FWLT did that Friday, but barely.

ATLS, if sec turns this could be ready to bounce off 9ema level.  AHD, holding up well.  

The shippers got whacked and we'll likely just watch them for now.

 

Monday
Jun112007

Sluggish mkt...except

The only thing last weeks terrible performance not do to DJIM stocks was put a ribbon on them for today's action.  Today was definitely a GIFT as there were plenty of remarkable performances.  You have to figure the bargain hunting started Thursday afternoon and today was just the icing.  With the icing comes some froth, which is always a good time to pocket some points.  That is unless you think a KMGBTNH, GMH, CROX will put up back to back huge days.   We'd rather not think and just line our pockets first and then consider re-entry.  This is especially true when DJIM stocks are outperforming the market as a whole.   We love NCH's but when you get a intraday 10%+ move in a KMGB or a 8pt move from TNH since friday, we will always take a load off and ignore a potential NCH end of day..... This is especially true if the market is showing signs of losing steam off only modest gains during the day.   You couldn't really call this bargain hunting buying as almost all of these big gainer stocks were already trading near highs, so maybe it was just being in the right place at the right time.  But the right place and the right time require the right stocks!.   Not much else to say about today, hopefully this euphoria over DJIM's today carries over to the rest of the market tomorrow.  We can't survive on our own.

Thursday
Jun142007

..up the Bulls sleeve...

Who would've guessed the Bull have so much left up their sleeves?..Actually it's not sleeves, it's their back pocket they seem to have their ammunition packed away in.    It was just last Thursday after that horrible 3rd day, we said in perfect market world a 'rosy picture' would emerge with a little help.  We nominated Paulson and his B- boy.  Looks like we got their coloring book instead, as in the Beige Book to give us that somewhat rosy picture.  Add the Bears getting dizzy at the potential topping out of the bond yields it seems and a rally we go.....

...okay back to what matters in DJIM land...

AIRT, many of us remember this beast. This one used to be on fire, even before fire got the aero sector flying. Today we dragged this air-cargo play after 2 years of nada. The good thing is the float hasn`t changed since many of us traded it back in late `04.  It stands at 2.5mln or so. What got our attention is the EPS this Q.   AIRT has away of making you do some homework as in reporting full year numbers.  When we first saw the .94c for the year, we started subtracting the last 3.  Being the scholars we are, we came up with a seemingly clean.40c+ Q.  Not too shabby for a company with a PE under 15. Backlog looks good too. Potential is something we consider as much as anything else when deciding on a new entry. Potential here is thanks to its history and its potential ability to draw the right crowd.

KHDH, yesterdays late alert at 58.5ish gave us 62 by the close on another nice volume day. If this one is new to you, use the search feature to see our write up on it (DJIM #21). Again, we hope this move gets this discovered further. Interestingly, a few from that weekend write up kept on stretching it out today...RCCC and CUB.

LPHI, still wondering by close if those gapping it this morning realize it pre-announced on the 4th...lol...How else do you explain a buck gap and then nearly a 10% rise.

TNH, traded in a 7pt range providing excellent opportunities for the trader. Finally closed over 100!

Sunday
Jun172007

DJIM #25  2007

This is definitely a helluva of a start to the summer. The recent scare of back to back to back days of declines leading to last weeks broad rally is volatility at it's best and every traders dream.  It was just on the 14th (3rd day of declines), we said lets all take a chill pill and not act hastily with our books and wait to see who/what puts the bears into the woodshed.  Seemingly, everyday since there has been something to reignite the Bull and his herd.  Friday was the crowning as tepid inflation numbers brought back hopes of better growth to go with it.  If you had the QQQQ on level2 as the CPI came out, you'd think you won the lottery before the open.  An important ingredient to last weeks rally was being prepared.  The only way to do that is having stocks in tow or watch listed to recycle into that were strong to begin with. We think we were definitely ready here at DJIM by having 'strong stocks' as the market finished its tumble.  In DJIM #24, "Even after the tumultuous week there are more than a few DJIM's still trading near highs or making them. These are the stocks we are concentrating on. The partial theme here is to always play strong stocks!. Common sense says a stock that survived last week and finished near highs is a strong stock...".

Included in this list were :         KMGB    LXU    TNH     CUB    RCCC   LPHI     GHM    MA     FWLT 

1 week % performances          21.46    8.16   19.15   4.37  19.73    25.72  10.28   9.80   5.49

Simply all you needed was a healthy dose of DJIM stocks to recycle if need be.  It is so much easier when you have the right watch list without having to seek out what is hot in a fast and furious market. This allows you time to concentrate on trading and getting in early if you were not there already.  Saves time and money.

Beyond the above DJIM stocks that we will continue to stalk, we also had a few names..old and new come to forefront last week...

One of our all time DJIM favorites, MFW was picked up on the hunch they will do something with their cash, well more of a hunch the hedgies will feel that way.

KHDH was one we didn't get much out of recently but oh boy did it show its magic for the last 3 days since alerted $58.5`s. A fast 5 points-8% to the high of Friday.

AIRT, was introduced Thursday $9.60`s area and almost hit $11 at the open the next day before digesting its previous days gap and big percentage day.

SDTH, we just couldn't buy and type fast enough it seems. We started buying the low 5`s and by the time we got the alert out it was 5.30 and then exploded to 6.25 in the next 15 minutes. We said what we saw as angle to this play and soon enough it seems Briefing saw it the same way. Fertilizer and China with earnings.   See their write up posted in Forum by a member. 

AHD MFLO VSNT pretty well round out the play list.

..most importantly today...A Happy Father's Day to our friends here!

 

 

Monday
Jun182007

..What was that?

Well...that was what is a typical summer snooze off!. The indices churned and churned with no catalysts ( eg. little M&A activity or Eco numbers) to serve up any conviction on either side.  Maybe we shouldn't complain after the excitement lately, but if you're doing this full time, days like this make you cringe at the thought of more listless days.    Luckily, there were a few DJIM gorillas to get some through the day. Both MA and TNH continued their extended run with 4% days, another $100+ gorilla FWLT had a nice follow through day and closed with a NCH. You wanna talk about extended, how about that LPHI!.lol.   It probably causes a few hearts to skip a beat the way it trades intraday, but at the end of the day it closes at the the days high once again.  When a stock does get extended you might get a RCCC reaction day sooner than later. Oh yeah this one has bounced nicely off 9ema around $30 last so keep an eye on for a trade possibility here at that point.

Besides adding CMED off earning early on,  there was nothing new we bought.  We actually did more selling today, reducing some position sizes such as in KHDH, now KHD on nyse just to lock in some profits. 

KMGB shrugged off the IBD omission nicely.

MFLO reversed nicely back to $23 intraday. This one is fixated on $23 and it makes you wonder how many shares can go at that price before something positive happens.

Hopefully tomorrow brings some excitement..with a bullish bias of course.

Wednesday
Jun202007

Hump day..

Unfortunately, there isn't much to get over on hump day Wednesday following these last two days, which might be a good thing!. Considering the market has done little but trade in a tight range following the gap up, this lull might be more positive than anything else.  Still this market is driven now by the slightest news, so what might look positive can change in a flash.  Tomorrow is an important transport  FDX earning that might move things one way or another.  In the meantime, we'll continue to look at for the next new mover or the next move in an already played DJIM stock as in a couple today...

CMED, this one can catch the momo as seen this morning and this possibility is one reason we entered yesterday..playing off its history. Now that the stock has come down from its lofty heights following its IPO date in 2005, it might be ready for another leg up off its latest earning. Today's early morning spike to 32.98 might be due to a brokerage call on it and there might be more to follow. By adding another product line recently, it's growth is likely to keep ticking. As we said in our initial alert, its trading can be erratic. The good thing about that is it provides new buying opportunities.

AIRT, the good part of a slow moving market is it gives you time to lurk around some plays in more detail. Today we spotted a potential 'nibble' to be at around $10.50 that materialized into a move over $11. As other recent plays that are comparable to AIRT dry out,  we might get more traders coming to this fresh play. Today's chart might catch an eye or two as well now.

RCCC, last night we touched on RCCC as a potential trade to watch today. If you had it close on hand, maybe you were able to get something out of the nearly 4pt rebound.  When a stock climbs like RCCC from say $15 to over $40 in a few months sooner than later you get a biggie breakdown. They are inevitable and the same probably is the case for KMGB late in the day...

KMGB, and on the 15th of trading day following earnings it fell through the chimney and stomped its butt on the 9ema!. There was nothing we could see for the drop other the inevitable drop after 15 or so days of solid gains, especially for a low float winner.  We dont consider this play over at all and took this as an opportunity to get some back.  It might fall more tomorrow even if there is nothing of news substance, but like RCCC did today...we expect this to move back up.  We'll most likely start building up a position back up as the dust settles or see buying come in.  This sector is not going to fade off into the distance, today it was the #1 performer for most of the day and it will be again and again. We'd be more careful with TNH now.

CUB, continues on and today it was an extension of a big contract. Now nearly 50% since we alerted, we can say it has been recognized as a defense play as we noted it would sooner than later.

SDTH, it just feels its not far away from another leg up. With China cheapies getting play today, don't be surprised if it swings to here if the mania continues into tomorrow.

Also TBSI is back as one to possibly move into as it made a NCH today. ESEA is around as well.

 

Wednesday
Jun202007

...like a hot knife through buttah!

You can only churn and churn so much before the inevitable happens.  The inevitable could be a spike up or as said last night it could change in a 'flash' to the other side...down.  There is a mystery out there as to what transpired this afternoon.  In our view,  we churned so much the past few days, we became butter.   Briefing is left blaming it on the Bear Stearns hedge fund trouble because of subprime.  Hold on there...didn't we get past this and the possibilities that the subprime story could have created.  This news was also known on the 18th without a tear dropped. Another view is the bond yield soared!.   Puleeeze.... we just peaked at 5.30% and today it "soared" to 5.15 from 5.09%.!  Come on!.   All we can confirm once more is traders seem to go to the bathroom holding hands.   What is about 2pm that makes them go?.   Just like in skool, they all are seemingly instructed to holds hands and enter..or is it exit as was the case today.   As far as we can see, and we really don't want to see too far as we are trading for the moment (short term).. is that today was another day of churning that made holders weak and they were then easily sliced through at the first sign of weakness...like a hot knife through buttah!!!. We all lose patience and the slightest tick of selling showed many the door, even if the news is not clear or if there is none at all of true importance.   They wait and wait and if the tick aint up, it doesn't take much to create a wave of selling.  Today it happened in a flash and it wasn't something that headlined , but one that left many scrounging for answers as to why after the close.  

We are looking at the Nasdaq here and will not get that bearish feeling maybe until/ if 2590ish is broken end of day.  What we expect here is the gap from Friday to hold and some buying to come in tomorrow.   Now, if we get some morning news to favor the Bears, well then we ain't going to get the buying, are we?.  

Basically, there was no real damage done to most of the stocks followed here at DJIM...

Still, this morning provided some opp's to either take some profits or just make the late selling not that big of a deal in a particular stock.  The names we are alluding to are stocks like....

KMGB, was a either a great trade off yesterdays plunge or just a good excuse to start another position in it.  Not bad if you picked up even at the open and not during yesterday late day fall, $23 to a high 24.70's and not a bad finish after all.  We'll hold tight.

SDTH, last night we pointed out the potential of this catching maybe some of the China mania we saw yesterday.  Maybe it spilled into it this morning, but we think it is more of this being a Chem-fertilizer with excellent earning then some beaten down cheap China stocks they've been speculating on into today's action again.   You could have enjoyed the trip to 5.90's or/and you could be very pleased with a NCH on this by close. Volume was good and there was interest left in the day for it not to be involved in the selling activity. A few were panicky, but the smart ones might have bought it back up by the close.  Last night we said don't be surprised.  Tonight, we repeat don't be surprised but with more conviction.

GTLS,  it made a nice move 26.80 to 27.50's after noted today and then got vacuumed by the market draft later on.   Well, at least now you know how it can move...up and down and why we've liked to trade it some before.   As far as the timing of the alert and how it coincides with a 1 minute chart today, all we could say is to each his own...own trading motives.  Some background on Chart Industries inc....manufactures and supplies engineered equipment used in the production, storage, and end-use of hydrocarbon and industrial gases. It operates in three segments: Energy & Chemicals(E&C), Distribution and Storage (D&S), and BioMedical.  A MS analyst gave it a $38 buy tgt today and said this is a possible next in line to Dresser-Rand which doubled since October.

Despite the close today, some morning movers held on to what they could to close green. These include CMED, TBSI, CROX, MFLO. CUB . As we said before....nothing was severely damaged that we follow and we'd look to capitalize on any rebound after today is digested late this week. Remember, we expect and welcome volatility this summer and considering today was nothing compared to what we witnessed just over a week ago in that 3 day sell off, it's not the end of the world as we know it.....Simply if you didn't act hastily during that plunge after day 3...why should you now with nothing concrete to push you over the edge.

A nice reversal is quite important tomorrow.... no matter what you make of today's exaggerated move.

Thursday
Jun212007

Better than nothing....

"We are looking at the Nasdaq here and will not get that bearish feeling maybe until/ if 2590ish is broken end of day.  What we expect here is the gap from Friday to hold and some buying to come in tomorrow.   Now, if we get some morning news to favor the Bears, well then we ain't going to get the buying, are we?." 

Well...we didn't get any news noise in the morning but we still got an early continuation bump from yesterday, which was hardly a surprise considering what was a sizeable drop.  By 10am we hit that 2590ish mark (2586 low to be exact) and the rest is history.  Last night we thought there was no reason to fret, simply the bears caught the bulls napping after 3 days of churning yesterday.  That's the way we felt while it was all going on and later last night after catching our breath.   If it was the yield climbing yesterday...why didn't we go lower as it climbed to 5.19% today?.    Are we satisfied with today's reversal?.   The answer is no, but that could change tomorrow.   You see DJIM stocks have a way outperforming the indices and not performing on par when the market rallys.   We have seen this time and time again and have written about it many times.   Despite the rally today, it was really only for the techs on the Nasdaq...even the big caps really didn't perform to NASD snuff.   There were a few DJIM's that bounced nicely off low's...MA 6 pts...TNH 12 pts..FWLT got in the grove late for 3 pts, but the problem was with many of the small-micro caps that have been running here that didn't perform as we would have liked.   This list includes SDTH, KMGB, CMED, LXU, AIRT, VSNT etc. but a few did like LPHI, TBSIGHM  (34k vol. woo hoo).   Still..besides the few it was uninspiring in the scope of things, but at least yesterdays fall did not continue today.   So..maybe we shouldn't be so picky....Yeah right!.  Let others and their niches have a good time while we are predominately left out.   NO WAY, JOSE!

If today wasn't just a blip like the fall yesterday was....well then we expect some action in the DJIM stocks that did little today to move tomorrow. This is even if the market digests today's gains and does little all day...but we do have the Blackstone (BX)  IPO tomorrow, which should help the karma on the trading floors.  Maybe it can spread...

.

Sunday
Jun242007

DJIM #26 2007

You wanna talk about a market driven on any hint of news..well we've got one, which is leading to volatility left, right and center. This is hardly a bad thing for many traders who are being selective and opportunistic.  We've noted a finish below 2990 NASD would give us maybe that bearish feeling, well 2589 Fridays close is really not it.   We are seeing recent leaders maintain their 'strong' stock tags and that gives some optimism that we won't see big declines with earning season approaching once more.  We are simply being driven by any news, unfortunately some old and some new crept into the market Friday. The old is the possibilities of a Bear Stearns saga unfolding, we all knew this could rear its ugly head one day or another and it is coming to the market now once again.  Frankly we like the battle between BS and ML.  It's funny.  All they are doing is pounding each others stock.  You think BS didn't kick MLynchs butt back on the market for what they did?.. They didn't do it by selling 100 ML lots.    The new news is the government intervention into the markets.  It started with trying to stop the BX IPO and then spilling into a full blown attack by introducing legislation that would more than double taxes on the hedgies, buyout firms and more.  This accelerated the selling Friday and we are clearly at the mercy of news.. any news.  If it's not the Yield, then it's the Gov's nose..then its the subprime stuff coming into the psyche of traders.  The thing that got this rally going was brought on by earnings!!.  It was earnings driven and the savior in all this might be that the focus will slowly turn to earnings in the media that kick off July 9th.   As we've said many times before, we don't see a market tanking just before earnings.   We hope this is the case this summer and with the SMH showing some leadership,  it might be the way to think.   Anyhoo.., what we will continue to do is be selective and opportunistic with a hint of caution, which is never a bad thing to keep you on your toes... A few selective opp's from last week, lead off for this week, everything else just keep an eye on 9ema, volume and  look over the charts posted.  They are there as a 'GUIDE' for those not so experienced, those who can't pull the trigger one way or another...buy, but most importantly SELL....Don't get beaten down in any position that you can't get back up from!....How do you know you can't or won't? ...well you don't, so don't risk finding out!

CMED, an early week alert for a buy in under $30, it traded between 31-33 for the rest of the week.  It has a few things going for it into this week. First, technically as you probably can see by its 30 minute chart.  Second is you throw it's IBD inclusion at #82 this weekend into the pot and stir. What you have is the ingredients to see this go through it's resistance from last week.

GTLS, a buy in in the $26's mid week this sustained its move and showed even better strength on Friday as it kicked up to $28.80 high. Another 1mln volume day and you start to think it is slowly being discovered. DRC is #64 IBD and this is the one GTLS was compared with as noted in a Journal entry last week.

LPHI, MACHINE!. What else can you say about it so far.   It trades in its own little world away from all the noise of the market. 

SDTH, it looks quite ready for another leg up and the best thing was maybe it didn't move yet (on Friday). Nothing like a few more days for some to digest the potential chart play here on a break if it occurs.

SPAN, this recent alert DJIM for a leg up is a trade idea for early in the week.  A helluva week for it and then a drubbing from $27+ to 24 on Friday intraday. Over 3 pts down on Friday market action down.  Thinking this will get a rebound , it is IBD100 inclusion at #73. 

You have to deal with what is front of you.  At this point, we have to admit the market took a drubbing last week and because of that we should be more cautious.  Nobody knows what will come out of the horses mouth next..or do we know who or what will be the horse that leads a stampede one way or another.   We just think earnings chit chat will take over shortly and the other noise might actually stop.  We'll see...let's hope!

Monday
Jul092007

..How high can they go?

The better question might be... is how high can you go with some these solar stocks?   Remember the trip down can get pretty trippy when you are dealing with momentum stocks that have powered up as much as some of these have lately.  Still, a new twist to these big plays is that a few of them produced contracts today to help push them. FSLR got the ball rolling announcing deals worth around 1.3 billion with renewable energy co's out of Europe and TSL followed up with more deals. So are these deals enough to push these even higher or do they just tap the recent run?. Time will tell, but the best thing is to have these on a tight leash..in other words trade them, get in and get out with the tide.  Another positive for FSLR and JASO today was the intervention by a few firms to raise price targets.  A RJ up to $48 really got JASO clicking later in the day.  Are these firms late to the party or are they going to push these higher?.   Lots of questions, lots of momentum and even some secondary solar plays are putting up charts at the close that can't be ignored.  LDK, HOKU are two examples of NCH's, nice charts that can't be overlooked even if they are solar powered.  It's really up to the individual on some of these as to your comfort level. If you've been following them daily off the Journal since the 25th of June, you likely took some of the table today or plan to tomorrow into any morning strength or maybe not and you'll keep riding the momo for as long as it lasts. Just be on guard is all we can say on some of the flying solars.  Hopefully, the contracts and firms getting involved further at these lofty heights is enough for this to continue.  Lets hope for more contracts and more firms upping the estimates/targets. These stocks are not going away in the long run, they came back from the early part of the year when we were trading them hard and now is just another opportunity to capitalize. There will be others down the road if this detours any time soon.

Now..back on planet earth this Monday. We didn't wake to a slew of M & A deals, but you have appreciate the huge buybacks today by JNJ/COP.  Besides, earnings/ M&A action in 07', buybacks have a been an important catalyst as well.  If the firms are buying back at these prices, well then the investor asks why shouldn't I?. It also didn't hurt a 20% premium was put on the head of FDX by a weekend publication.

CMI, this is the 2nd time we hit it nicely off an alert in the past of months. We liked how the stars were aligning with a breakout on the heels of a Bear Stearns upgrade. What you can't ignore is a 10 point move and that it is best to take profits along the way. A steady move such as this allows for entry almost at any point to then take a few points off.  If what you had hoped for in a few days happens within hours...all you could do is take profits somewhere within todays price range and look to re-enter another time.

SPAN, this was highlighted a few weeks back in DJIM #26 as a potential play from around $24. Today it tacked on another 5% to a NCH at $30.60. Buying the pullbacks has been a profitable trade in this one. Maybe we'll get another one later this month.

PENX, TBSI, CUB, DDUP ..usual suspects had nice days again.

And if there is ever any reminding needed of why we trade BTJ the way we do (this sort of came up recently on forum)....well, today's action is the simple reason why.  This is also they type of action some of the solars are capable of sooner or later.

Tuesday
Jul102007

..How about...??

..we just put this day away and watch the All-Star game or something?.  Honestly..despite what looks like a terrible day on paper..NASD down 30, DJIA almost 150, it all seemed without real conviction on the sellers side.  What transpired today was an overloaded bag of expectation for Bernanke to give this market a lift.  You've heard us talk of Paulson repeatedly coming to the rescue of the market... go back recently here on the Journal and see how it coincided with the recent market rally......when he speaks, we go up and this is somewhat expected of Bernanke speak..unfortunately.  Those in the market loop knew Beranke wasn't going to let any tricks out of the bag today...it was what they call an 'academic' speech.  Somehow without him spilling the beans the market used it as an excuse to turn back to the HD guidance and somewhat unravel the market later in the day. But, seriously how much unravelling is there to do when the market is extended as it was heading into today's trading?.  Won't take much!...NASD up 5 straight days, the DJIA/SPX near resistance points.  Today was a distribution day no doubt and it was simply time we eased on the accumulation of stocks.  AA was never the end all of earnings reports, it's just tee-off time in our books for another season....but as we say around here... it's earnings season 12 months a year at DJIM, as the likes of PENX never seem to put a close to an earnings Q...

What were the notables on this distribution day?. You can't expect many as distribution doesn't play favorites and usually goes after biggest gainers first...so, it is no surprise most of the closely followed here closed in the red...A few stood out.  Despite the early sell off gap in the Solars at the open, a couple of names showed vigor as any sell off in the markets taking them down intraday was shrugged off constantly....

LDK, noted this one off the chart last night.  It definitely trades choppy, but there was interest throughout the day as every dip was being bought up.  All you have to do is look at the last dip as the market slipped deeper into the red late and the recovery it made closing back near the the day highs at $37.

TSL, whenever a momo stock can make an intraday bounce of 6 pts, you have to give it kudos for its days action.  So, we'll give it such for today.  FLSR might have a needed a rest , don't you think after yesterday?.  A downgrade didn't help but a 4 point intraday trading range is nothing cry over.  You really have to take a 4+% slide into context here and with any momo stock trading at high prices.   It comes with the territory.

TBSI, this is where experience and an understanding DJIM stocks came into favor today.  Don't remember exactly at what price we started covering TBSI at DJIM,  but one thing you might have seen and noted is the dips this stock is capable of.   If you've held it or just watched, you know a dip has been an opportunity to re-enter this stock.  Sure..today's dip was exaggerated but it only warrants more of your attention and action.  What happened today at the open?. They bought a vessel for 29mln.  Siince when is that a bad thing?.   Some saw it as a reason to dump, a flood ensued and what was a damn extended stock as we have noted recently...fell from 33 to 27's.  If all you wanted to do was flip, our alert probably gave you a fast flip as it moved to 31.50.  We traded some and held some of what we picked up in the 28's and are fine with it at the close as it held above 9ema.

Speaking of 9ema...well ...we don't really in this case as it's speculative junk, but you might want to give LOCM a look very soon for a possible trade. Again, remember we are not in for a relationship on these types as when we alerted and watched it go to $13+ the next day recently.

CCF, you probably remember this one from an alert play in January that turned into a little winner. At that time, it reported something like .62 cents to get our attention. Well, this time it reported .68 AHours, if you forget the split it did for a second.   In other words, this Q is better EPS and Revenue than what got our interest 2 quarters ago.  The question is who wants to get involved tomorrow in a EPS winner after a day like this and especially one stock that is not very liquid.  We`ll see tomorrow if it can attract interest, liquidity most importantly of all.  We don`t want to be stuck with nice size lots with no one to sell it to at the beginning of earnings season in the days to come....might as well stuff a fat ceramic pig instead...

Sunday
Jul152007

DJIM #29  2007

The easiest thing to do would be to speak of the big market move last week, but we won't do that and instead look forward to the week ahead. Hopefully, we steered you in the right direction in our Journals the past while and you have stayed invested heavily in the market and our plays as they were the beneficiaries as much as anything else last week. Just looking at the list from DIM #28...DRYS TBSI LPHI AZZ FWLT PENX DDUP SCOR FSLR TSL LDK JASO and you see who played with enthusiasm.  If you need still need to grasp the significance of last weeks action, just look at the weekend charts/comments.  Funniest quote so far heard though, is ..."meanwhile while the media is enjoying their victory lap, many investors are less than enthusiastic about the moves in their accounts at the end of the week....they didn't see the same huge gains in their accounts".  Name the the tout and win a free month at DJIMstocks...NAH, that wouldn't work as too many of you are quite familiar with this singer.  Sounds like sour grapes for some reason, if you ask us!.   At this point in the game, we have to look for some potential stalled action, fortunately we have earnings as the base of this DJIMstocks and it should not stop us from going forward as earnings will pick up this week and new picks will start to show their colors.  We already had some nice reports from CCF, GBX, SCHN  indicating a diverse crop of good reports possibly to follow. Use our Earnings Dates link to see some notables reporting.  Again, we ask for members to post within that link any earning dates for DJIM stocks past and present plays you might come across and we will edit them into a list for all to keep track of this Q.  Going forward, we're basically keeping to the same list as last weekend of stocks we are concentrating on, plus a few new ones that appear all over DJIM last week.  Take into consideration some stalling action in the market realistically should come to some of our names as well.  When that happens we wait and see if the stock sets up again for us to enter a buy in. Examples of this are PENX and DDUP late Friday. LPHI was another were patience is rewarded as it put in a 5pt move after we moved in again.  There is not much to add to individual stocks that was not already said last week, nothing has changed really in our thinking towards those plays  A few other breakouts of past DJIM stocks that we have not signalled out but have been mentioned in our forum such as CMED, SPEC should also be included in any watchlist. The most important thing right now is probably to start freeing up some cash if you are heavily invested to use on new plays that will emerge.  It is quite hard now as everything seems to be running and gunning out there, but it is something you might start doing this week.

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