Aug. 28 Update

We have an interesting day so far.   Index is up as if we are starting a fall rally already.   As far as the kind of stocks we are concerned here, they're also getting some interesting action.

BTJ, well as if we are gonna start talk about something else today.     We believe it's a combination of "sell on the news" and slight disappointment of "it only came in at #14 on IBD".    No matter what, BTJ does need to rest.     What's so interesting about this play is that now it's on IBD 100 list, but at #14 spot, what do you do next?    It still has eps 99, rs 99 rating but yet it's no where near the top.    My strategy is to play it on the long side b/c as long as there are people who believe that this thing will eventually move to #1 spot on IBD100 list, there will be plenty of action.    Volume is great and potential upside is also great.     Depends on how it closes, I'm either going to buy some back if it closes well (around $18) or wait till tomorrow if it closes poorly (below $17.50).      As it stands, 9 ema is around $16.20 and if we close poorly today, there's a shot that it may try for the 9 ema tomorrow.      In either case, I will start buying aggressively starting tomorrow.

UIC, if you don't like the volume, then you must like the action.   I'm leaving this one be at this point.

ALY, it gaps up and is so far holding on great volume.      I've added some and hopefully it doesn't fade near the end.

HWCC, this one is having a bit of a disappointing action considering its debut on IBD100.   I think it's still working off its IPO inventory.   I did reduce some exposure and will not do a thing unless it breaks out of the recent top.

NEU, BT posted that it's setting up for a short entry based on the chart.    I do have a different opinion thinking that this one is in a consolidation phase from the recent gain and it'll take out the recent high sooner than later.    However, this stock is volatile enough that you can literally play both sides of the action in same day.

GRB, this is a recent pick that's trying to break out from its recent high.    So far it's holding up and volume is increasing but I will wait till later to decide if I'd be adding this one or not, based on the potential close that is.

ANST, I traded this one earlier today and am adding this one to the watchlist.    This stock had a good reaction to its earnings last Friday and today is helped by the IBD listing.    This one has quite bit of institutional exposure so I don't expect it can be pushed around like BTJ.

other stocks also performing off our list include CTCM, IPSU....     also, b/c index is performing well, you can always try your luck with NVEC, TZOO

cheers,

Update on Monday, August 28, 2006 at 03:20PM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

..end of day, the quiet star might be AMIE profiled last week...the other side of the BTJ's, but still EPS based.

Update on Monday, August 28, 2006 at 04:13PM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

Quick chart glance at the best moves today.

http://tinyurl.com/gudzu

Is it 2pm yet? ..FOMC minutes, CETV at $60

Likely to be a 'real' sleeper till the minutes are released, then maybe just a sleeper...volume will drip in the book of stocks we are following, the drip is a 'green' right now..................there is always a BTJ re-entry to figure out

Update on Tuesday, August 29, 2006 at 12:14PM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

CETV- bot a small piece for a pure trade around $60, market seems to like the news of Lauder giving up a big stake.

Update on Tuesday, August 29, 2006 at 03:33PM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

RUT 2000 at breakout levels, BTJ was figured out by most it seems;).  Added more to CETV as it started to groove. I'm sure Jon will touch on more of the moves AH. The DJIM list is quite the green now.

Update on Tuesday, August 29, 2006 at 04:37PM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

Chart of CETV around noon at BT charts, the recent top in dotted line around 61.50....if you look at the 1min. chart  end of day you could see how most saw it as 'pure trade' with the same top area in mind (61.75 H) after nearly a 4pt day for some....the sellers a plenty in the last 10 min...one big one sets it off. Closes like BTJ's are a lot more fun.

After the Minute

what started as a typical dismal Aug. day during the last week of the month turned out to be very exciting toward the end.    Of course, you still wouldn't feel it unless you are trading our kind of small caps.

BTJ, once again it's on my top watch list and also the first thing I wanted to talk about.    All I want to say is that you are gonna wish that you bought some shares earlier today.    I started dipping some earlier today and got more progressively as its action turned from so so to fantasitic.      Maybe this stock will eventually crash down or burn in flame like IFO or ERS, but for now, momentum rules and you have got to hammer this one as it gets hotter and hotter.     In fact, most of my trading gains come from plays like this.     The point is, when a stock like BTJ  has this kind of liquidity, the momentum and everything else which makes a great small cap winner, you just have to go all out and put all your effort, capital, and focus into it.     Of course, I don't have to take this much risk now and even though I'm playing BTJ with less than 10% of my equity, it can still count for substantial gain when I play it right.     

FTEK,   would you look at that flag?   This is a typical break out scenario which we've played many many times before.   However, it never gets old.

NEU, I thought this is the second best setup next to BTJ.    It is very volatile for a $60 stock but when you get it right, the reward outweighs the agony tremendously.    Blacktruck has had some very nice chart + timing attached on this stock and I'd suggest anyone go check it out.    I'm long a few today but will add aggressively the second it takes out $63.

aside from the above three which I thought were the best setups on my screen, others include UIC IAAC PWEI IPSU ANST HURC all closed near the top of their range today and I believe they all have the potential to get some carry through tomorrow.

Volume

As expected volume is a snore especially in our list...you might have some artificial gains at this point that could evaporate if 'holding into a long weekend' comes to the front. Still its good see mostly 'green' in a flat market.... led by AMIE +5%,HWCC +3%, ALY, BTJ, FTEK all 2+%...Slowly AMIE is being discovered.

Update on Thursday, August 31, 2006 at 11:48AM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

AMIE-90k block at $33 just went off.

IAAC $24.5, GROW $24.85 entry

It just doesn't feel like it's the last trading day of this summer.     

IAAC (24.50) -believe it or not, we started playing this one exactly three months ago.    Kudos to Demi, we started following it on another msg board since $12 and it's really been an on and off affair for us.    Thanks to GROW, this one is catching on some heat lately and it just took out the old high with very good volume.    Imo, this one has better growth compare to GROW and it also has good IBD exposure.    The reason why I mention IBD in about every paragraph I write is that about all of our past big winners would eventually turn up on the IBD100 list.    The recent surge in volume tells me that interest is picking up and momentum is building up.    Right now, it's no where near the climatic volume phase and so I'm not worried about a blowoff top anytime soon.   In fact, GROW is starting to set up nicely also which leads me to believe that this sector might be in play.

Update on Thursday, August 31, 2006 at 06:10PM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

If you have a screen with the DJIM stocks only...it definitely feels like a different market!..This is where all the fun was today..AMIE's move,  CETV moving to $62 thru recent top, CTCM, ALY trying to test our DJIM highs before pulling back. FTEK, GRB, NEU all looking healthy.  We talked of another entry on BTJ..well today was textbook 9ema. Also nice bounce in WBD....and finally IAAC gave a late day push, opportunity to buy into a New Closing High(NCH).

Update on Thursday, August 31, 2006 at 06:20PM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

Charts updated at close :ALY, AMIE, BGC, BTJ, CETV, CTCM, FTEK, GRB, ICLR, IPSU, NEU, PWEI, UIC, WBD  (use naviagation link to Charts by BT to access)

Update on Friday, September 1, 2006 at 10:43AM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

IAAC - TOP mover IBD 'stock on the move'

Update on Friday, September 1, 2006 at 11:00AM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

GROW- (24.85) mentioned above moving in as a secondary play on IAAC move

GROW

First there was IAAC, now there's GROW.     Even knowing that GROW has a nice setup going into today, no one really knows when it will break out, or if it will at all.    I think IAAC provided a catalyst.    When people trade up IAAC, they are gonna go find alternatives that may move like IAAC.   GROW is  probably the best fit and imo is really a close cousin to IAAC, in terms of characteristics.     IAAC went up more than I expected, I did reduce some exposure as I always do just to be disciplined.     I added quite a bit of GROW today and very much like this breakout, as it's breaking out from a relatively strong base.

Mkt is potentially giving traders a nice close going into this long weekend and we all should be taking advantage of this and reshuffle our position somewhat.     When the institutional boys and girls come back next week, it's really hard to tell what they are gonna do.    We wouldn't speculate on either direction but we will be ready for them as we've spent every day of this summer battling against the odds. lol

BTJ, it's firming up and is also setting up for next week imo.    This weekend's IBD list is a wild card for BTJ but I don't think it's going to do worse than the #14 spot.   Bear that in mind, the action today and last couple of days can only considered to be healthy.     There are a couple of other stocks which I would like to see a good close but we can never force the issues.    I will just let some stocks play out by themselves and act accordingly.

Update on Friday, September 1, 2006 at 01:50PM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

After the initial runs of WBD and CTCM off our list, these two are providing some of the best intraday trades the last few days . Just look at those 10min charts.....this is if you can take your eyes off the IAAC, GROW action.

Sept 1, Closing Update

What a week it turned out to be!   We have had some really nice movers from our DJIM watchlist and it's definitely paying off to be in this market when everyone else seems to be on vacation

IAAC,  not much I can say about this one as this is "what you see is what you get"!    Most people may not be comfortable with this kind of runup, and it's ran up after the fact it already had a strong week and month.    Well, this is what me and Demi and a few other traders have been playing during the last few years.    When all of your portfolio and all of your plays and things on your watchlist are all as volatile as IAAC, then after a while they become normal.     You basically have to get used to it.   For me personally, it did take a long time to grasp the concept of "trading a group of  most volatile stocks while applying the most conservative strategy"!     I'll elaborate on it more this weekend.

GROW, see above!     I felt that it has more legs left going into next week.  The only thing you have to watch out for is that it's releasing earning next  Friday.

NEU, patience may be paid off given today's close.    what can I say?  It closed at its day high, monthly high, and a new 52 week high!    This to me is about an ultimate close that a stock can get. 

other stocks closed well include FTEK PWEI WBD....  and a couple of new ones I'm adding to watchlist.

again, you don't have to own or play every single stock out there, just make sure you hammer out the best plays.

cheers,

DJIM list WK #3

DJIM will be going into the week with the names listed below, narrowing the list to concentrate on the more volatile names recently added (IAAC,BTJ,GROW). Last weekend we were looking for momentum trading to continue with or without Mr&Mrs Hampton, late in the week we certainly got that with IAAC breaking its volume highs, GROW coming along for the ride. What you want is a breakout with volume, those two got more than enough on the last friday of trading at the end of a dull summer. If this is not enough to start the week, there is BTJ that has refueled over the weekend at IBD #3 and looks to have setup for another trip north. We are not going to fight the tape with these, it will decide what we/you should do. This goes with keeping with whats working and finishing strong or showing resilency on dips and that's what we want to hold. ALY,AMIE,WBD are still performing well off our Aug18th list. WBD on friday is why you keep a tight list which we try to do, a 4pt intraday reversal to a high is something to behold. You don't have to be environmentally friendly to recycle stocks. NEU closed at a high too and definitely came back on some screens over the weekend. UIC has also performed well up 4 pts since being added. Something tells me GRB, FTEK, PWEI feel left out and one or two will let it be known this week. PGTI remains the Baskin Robbins play...hurricane flavor but you need to watch the homebuilders next to it. The others we will keep on the ticker above, what we want is to see life for an attempt at a breakout.

Taking some off and ride the rest

We can all agree that no matter how good a stock looks and how good your portfolio is performing, it's always prudent to lock in some profit and take some off the table.    Such is the case with us today.     Even though some of our selling today may not come at a best price, it'll prove to be valuable habit if you want to do this for a long time.    Ok here's some update...

BTJ, back to our #1 favorite.    The #3 position on IBD this weekend came as a surprise?   Nope, we thought it was inevitable so last week provided everyone with plenty of time to get in before what we think might be another major leg up.    We added quite a bit today.

IAAC & GROW, this twin just bolted out of the gate and so far holding up really well.   Keep in mind, these two have ran up quite a bit and if you look at the past, they always have a tendency to pull back some after a big move.    Reducing some exposure might be a good idea and that's what we did.   Of course, we are riding out the rest untill a reversal comes.

ALY, this one is really repeating a stair case pattern.   Regardless, it broke out with nice volume.

GRB, baby food strikes again?  Lol!  Hopefully volume picks up some and it closes above $16, so far so good.

NEU, it gapped up and what else do you want?    We are going to see what kind of close it gets later on...

there is also some pockets of action going on elsewhere, but we are really having our hands full with just the above ones...

Update on Tuesday, September 5, 2006 at 11:31AM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

speaking of let it ride...some days you come to the market and a horse race or two breaks out. Remember some can only go 6-7 furlongs, some a mile and 1/4, its never a bad time to take some off the table, sit in the lounge have a few and catch your breath ..just in case your jockey falls off your runner. Unlike a track..you can always make another bet down the stretch, at the close.

Looking Back..

It's almost always that whenever we have a huge day, the market will tell you to "cool it" the very next day.   It feels like this gig is getting too old. Lol!    So locking in some profit and reducing some exposure yesterday has proven to be a prudent decision eh?   We have to understand that the kind of stocks we are dealing here, though rewarding, can be very volatile.   It means that stocks go up and down, so without taking some profit, you'd end up running around in circles.   You definitely don't want to see your profit vaporize and back to square one knowing that you could've, or maybe should've done some proper selling.   We are not upset that we didn't sell our entire position, but we are glad that we did sell enough to justify the early entry opportunity that were presented to us.   Such is trading and we just have to learn our way through it.    Conclusion?   Sell when you can and buy when you have to!    Now on to some stocks..

Without looking at indcies, you'd know mkt isn't so hot based on the action of your watchlist. 

BTJ,  this is probably the best you can ask for from a momentum stock given today's mkt.  Catching some breath is fine and also fortunately for those who haven't had the opportunity to get in, today's not bad of a day.

IAAC GROW,  I hate to say it but these two may have seen the short term top for now.   With GROW's earning looming around corner, we wouldn't do much aggressive trading untill after their CC.   IAAC seemed to pull back more than the others  but it looks as though the pull back is relative to the streghth it exhibited last few days.   As long as IAAC does not violate some major short term trend line, we can always look for reentry point next few days.

Update on Wednesday, September 6, 2006 at 08:09PM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

Charts updated for Sept7 trading

Looking back...on 2 weeks

Tuesday night I sent some of you a list of the results of the names on our watchlists, the additions of such as BTJ, GRB, IAAC along the way. The list of 15+ stocks was completely green with about 40+ pts profit between them, this doesn't include pts the recycling program could've given you...playing BTJ a second time off the 9ema as an example. In settling on a hitlist this weekend, we said we are not going to fight the tape with the volatile names. We watched the 'jockey fall off a runner' or two yesterday, the track can get muddy overnight and we can't harp on that enough. If selling into Tuesdays big gains was not the plan, chances are ones risk exposure in volatile names was cut yesterday. We are always going to take points that are earned if we feel tape is turning, this also goes for the slower moving stocks in our list such as the AMIE, the UIC's all up about $5 since mention. The fall off a runner or being barbed by a slow moving stock is no different when they turn.

Reminder

GROW is having a CC tomorrow and this can definitely either encourage or disappoint the traders.    In either case, we've mentioned before that we do not like to hold through or even play this kind of events.    To top it off, what can affect GROW can also affect IAAC, so both plays are on hold untill after tomorrow morning.

BTJ, it was hammered yesterday and evidently triggered alot of stops.    The best case scenario is for it to consolidate in this range for a while before making any move.    Keep a close eye on the 9 ema and if it wanders too far below it this may become a "buy and hold" which is not exactly what we like to see.    In fact, we'd want to avoid that scenario.

Back on the saddle...!..GROW(eps) FNET-$7's

Well...you can't beat what GROW'd!. This looks like it blew out any projections. 18MM vs 5MM Revenue, .74c vs .05c.(5.62 MM net income). Remember a CC follows at 10am but it will likely not dampen these numbers. Unless some think a sell the news is in order, this will bode well for IAAC as previously discussed.  We are also waiting for a big EPS winner (VOL) (30's to high 40's) for us from last Q to report this morning.

 FNET which many remember as a high flyer we introduced that went from the low teens to $25 quickly is the beneficiary of some good news as it trades below $7. We have completely lost track of this one and only know the trading tape will dictate if this event is worth a entry. Anyways, just a few things to be watching premarket.

Update on Friday, September 8, 2006 at 08:36AM by Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

Bargain bin gap premrkt at GROW($30-31's), teased $36 after. Scratch VOL off as a possible trade.

BTJ -Support and Resistance-Oil...

BTJ and support and resistance.........Please notice BTJ on friday dipped to the 16.61 level then the body of the candle finished right on  the 17.00 support. REMEMBER all past support lines now become resistance.For this reason BTJ probably does some consolidation here. I SUSPECT though...that a five down off the high is close to complete with the hanging man candle last hour of friday. So now I am thinking an a-b-c upwave.

For this reason many will step to sides here and allow BTJ to either fail or take out resistance but ready to grab it on the breaks.

Another factor worth noting is the overlaid BTJ daily upon the WTIC (crude oil) daily. BTJ starting performing parallel to oil at beginning of 06. The one diversion is when BTJ started its IBD run. That divergence is slearly over now and if oil moves up I would think BTJ moves with it. It is also worth noting that the WTIC weekly sits squarely on its 55 ema a point where it has rallied in the past........

Please keep in mind this information is all from a chart perspective.

WTIC weekly with BTJ as black line and 55 ema

TWLL at $14 or lower on pullback

Not all chips are created equal and this is the one we having been following since its earnings bump recently. As much as we like to keep from the techs we have grown to hate, this one offers a slightly different twist. Its one of the few to make it out of Silicon valley and try out the market. A recent Ipo, never a easy thing to trade it showed up on screens with a .15 v .12c Q, nice revenue growth. It pushed quickly to $14's and has since pull backed and now is sitting back at the recent top. The volume has avg 50K a day on this last leg up, a volume kick is all it seems to need for a break. A pullback is even better but I don't know if it will happen first. The difference between the typical chips is of course the float (just over 10MM) plus its specializing in some niche chip markets such as security surveillance, many video toys for cars and not just the very busy LCD TV market. The chart looks good but the sector has to be watched, along with the games ipo houses will play if/when entering into a position.