DJIM #41  2007
Monday, October 8, 2007 at 08:08AM
Demi/ YourPersonalTrader

Last weeks key event was hardly a surprise,  yet it was a big relief and a nice day was had to close off the week.   What we like most and what played perfectly into the hands of our niche was the strong day(s) put in by the Russell 2000.   We can't complain about a 5% move as our niche has a lot riding on it's performance.    The pressure is now off the FED to cut rates and the talk will turn to earning reports.    If everything was to be a RIMM, we'd be laughing heading into the end of the year.  Unfortunately, it won't be all coming up roses, so expect to see some bumps in the road here.    In charts section this morning,  we've touched on the action Friday and what may be going on as the buying conviction seemed not be fully there Friday.   All last week we stressed a little patience on taking extra positions, yet not losing sight and therefore holding on to recent plays.   The ability to lean forward into the expectation, it was widely thought the Sept jobs report was a anomaly and this proved to be a good bet.  Simply,  if you had the right stocks the probability was they would be the ones that would give the strongest day.   You have to feed off good news and use the lift provided by news to lift your stocks.   What stocks will be the beneficiary, which have the best chance of catching volume???.  Always ask yourself.   We should all know from the group of stocks we cover.   This was not a day to look to enter illiquid stocks that would not take advantage of intraday action.   We saw a few too many on the forum, save them for a rainy day.   You are not taking the lift you are given if you are entering those types of stocks on a day you can trade off the herd and swing a few trades in your favor.   We had a list of them Friday morning we were leaning with.   These included the Shippers potentially bouncing off 9ema the day before.  You don't have to be a wizard to know these would move on good market news!.  You had potential to play a few points off these intraday ranges.  DRYS $96-102, FSLR $5 range, EXM, VMW $3 all noted leading up to the good news in the morning and days before.  What did the illiquid ones give you except missed opportunities end of day?.   Traders are on this planet to collect points..shave, scalp do what you need to do if you are trading full time....collect them if you are given market opportunities in the future when there is exuberance.  Days when the NASD is running, you should not be putting fresh coin into liquid poor Chinese stocks or micro railways as if you wouldn't be able to buy them the following week close to the same prices.   

STV, away from the speculative side of the KUN, RCH, GSI that led top losers list on Friday, STV is a 3 letter symbol away from the dirty AMEX on the NYSE that will definitely sit on radar for traders.   We've had some great success following quality China IPO's from the gates, such as EDU, MR and then WX EJ as it became more fashionable lately to go after these China IPO's.  A 2x Premium on the pricing of this was not surprising Friday.  We think most have read up on this stock and its business and so if you think Tech and China make for a good mix..well, then you'll be either trading this or putting some away.   As far as those spec names above, a quick beating might have been the best thing for them if you are thinking of playing them in the short term again.

..as a lesson, reminder into reporting season off more follow ups to the LDK news......btw...this is really turning into the Young and the Restless.  We've noted to keep clear if you're not in a position to flip,  now we say really keep clear and be careful with other names in this niche, this is now the 2nd after CSUN to experience problems from within.   Wildfires spread and at the heights this niche has reached,  it is no time to get brave!.  Investors and traders are still jittery after the subprime and when a stock is due for a drop on bad news, it really drops!!!.  This brings us to what is important now.  Earnings season.  The same exaggerated drops will occur on bad or even maybe average reports, if you are thinking of holding into earnings of micro/small/ momo stocks featured here.   For those new to us, we do not hold into the earning reports of these stocks!.  Think NTRI here from last week, we'd hate to see any of you take a beating because you had done some beautiful DD and came up with the idea your stock of choice will have a great report and then have your profits from this recent run evaporate in a heartbeat.    Let's stick to finding new gems this EPS season as a group and take it from there.

The wait and see approach might come about again until tomorrow and the FED minutes.  There isn't any need to discuss in detail any plays now till we see the extent of profit taking from those that were not finished Friday.  We need to see how the DJIM names set up from here.  This is not going to be a straight line up in the indices, so always be prepared to chew off some profits from days like Friday.

 

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