On a day the market just needed a few points in the green to close above 1205 and regaining a bullish posture towards testing highs, it was bombarded by negative catalysts and made a technically bearish weekly.
All excuses were pointed towards the lingering GS smell and spill, but as we pointed out mid afternoon it was earnings as the NASD/tech was the real culprit in our view (fell another 20pts off after >2pm note). Let’s just say, if DJIM’s DLB APKT were SEMI’s and not QLGC WFR (MFE tech software didn‘t help sentiment ), the disappointment in tech earnings would not have been seen. Yes, these are not the typical Semi’s, but with the LED semi’s (VECO CREE etc.) still being beat up, the whole group suffers. GS and BP are not responsible for a 50 point NASD spill and SMH being down around 4%. The day simply showed earnings and guidance/comments do matter to this market in a big way. Any signs of the recovery losing momentum and the market will be punished at these levels as earnings are the cushions for the contagion fears.
Tonight, Greece got bailed, but futures are not surprisingly quite muted from this weekend’s expectation being fulfilled. The good thing might be is shorts, who usual expect a big gap up on any positive news from the other side of the ocean may try to press in the early going if they don’t see one and we test 1180 at some point in the morning. Otherwise, the market will need more than just a bailout, but some relevant M&A activity (earnings BMO is pretty quite to help) and the usual Monday MF/institutional money that buys the market on a new month and/or Monday’s for the last few months seemingly.