Are share prices and expectations too frothy entering this Q reporting season?.  Will excellent earnings/ guidance be anticlimatic.    That is the simple question on investors minds and the answer will be known shortly as we have…INTC, JPM, GOOG, GE coming to the plate to open the season.    As said last week, some are expecting the same sell on the news that supposedly crippled the market into a correction in January.   Unfortunately for those laying down shorts in anticipation of such are likely ignoring the facts are quite different this time.  We had D.C /bank regulations and risk crisis in Greece/China that have since pretty well dissolved and/ or were priced into the market on the correction that ensued.    Now it’s simply ‘Earnings’ and if they can meet the high challenges in expectations, the broad market can hold up into May.  No matter what the outcome of earnings,  a correction of the magnitude in January is unlikely now and will likely be a buying opp’ if 2-3% at worst occurs.

On the positive angle of how this may play out , we just saw March SSS retail #’s  that had a great chance of selling off after reported. but the April # expectations were above consensus  and no sell off ensued.   This may happen the same with stocks now if they guide well.   Also, a look into the crystal ball today for possible tech reactions is a stock you won’t find on the US markets that pre-announced and guided very nicely today.   The stock is Infinieon Tech , which is 2nd largest chip co' in Europe and it sold off about 3% or more during day.   The question here is if this had to do with a BAC downgrade that followed or just selling off good news.   It may be good to see if this stock rebounds tomorrow overseas to understand this better.    AA ’s reaction to inline # expectations is not providing any clues after reporting tonight, we’re more concerned about the action in commods’ off highs,  notably select steels that is still continuing today.   We're watching if this metals selling spreads and grows to other commodity linked stocks/sub groups.
 
Anyways, so that is the speculation and considering we aren’t making bets in the indices either way, it probably doesn’t matter as we'll just wait to see what the market brings to us in the form of new earnings plays in the weeks to come.   If there was ever a Q where we get upside surprises, it should be this one as the recovery grows.   Still, as long as the market is flooded with new upgrades/ higher PT's almost on a daily basis that seemingly hit DJIM's coal, LED's and casino's play,  we should have things to trade until new EPS's hit.