To be honest here, the action out there today could make you fall asleep as the SPX traded in a very tight range after a good opening bell. After all, aren't we "supposed" to have some follow through from 2 late weakness days? Instead, we got some firm actions from Asia as many of their indices closed near at two months high to lead the way. Along with the strong a rally from crude, more M&A activity, there's basically no reason for this market to start the week with any downbeat sentiment. Don’t be surprised if it gets quieter this week as Passover kicks off tonight.
Too bad, for the bears it‘s a holiday week! Once again, Bears just can't put anything together! We are once again close to the area where we made an attempt at 1080+ last week. It will be interesting to see if we have another go at it this week on light attendance. Bear in mind, we have a NFP report coming out on a day when the market is not even open and we'd imagine much of the move would be made ahead of the event. Truthfully, unless we get some kind of surprise from NFP, it's not going to matter that much to the current market psychology. The psychology is that we are going to be entering into a new earning season and people are expecting to see some further evidence that economy is improving. Geez, doesn't make everyone sick already hearing us about this Economic recovery? Well, unfortunately, we are probably going to be saying this for the next couple of years, if not longer as we anticipate this recovery would take a long time to complete. The next catch word will likely soon be ‘Expansion’.
As far as plays go, commodity plays, especially those trade around oil, had a very good day today. Financial stocks and as well as other beta stocks have held up strong as well. There's really not a single weak link anyone can point to this market today. Usually, when an important sector lags the overall market, we may start to suspect a stall in the market momentum. Right now, we aren't seeing such a case so this market may continue to chug higher slowly from here.
Bottom line, good plays on our list just aren't coming down to give many opportunities at buying a dip. Sometimes, we really don't have a choice, but to chip back in little bit at time to keep up with this market. Until we find some fresh plays that offer attractive risk/reward, this is how most of us will be trading. Perhaps, the up coming earning season can be a good place to start digging on individual stocks, otherwise broadly for the market, we have to keep in mind excellent earnings may be 'priced in'.