Torch firmly in bull's hand...
Wednesday, March 24, 2010 at 07:48AM
Jon in LED'S, VECO

If an Olympic torch run can be used to describe this market, then the torch has been carried by bulls for awfully a long time.    Heading into last weekend, we were a little concerned that the latest rally pace was finally a bit "excessive" and we had to respect the idea of consolidation/pullback.   We have to be careful these days using any sort of adjective to describe this market because every bull run is new and fresh to all of us.    However,  we still have to use the trading experience in the last few months in order to execute our strategy efficiently.    One thing that's getting obvious though, this market won't go down without a fight.    And fortunately, this fight does NOT involve any Bears and their shorts at this time. Since shorting this market doesn't make any sense at all, and it hasn't made any sense for a while, we firmly believe that this market is currently in total control of the bulls.  

What does it mean?  The only way for this market to stall/pull back without a very negative catalyst is for the Bulls to stop chasing and buying.   We saw more of this today, after meandering all day, the market surged to a SPX breakout late as investors/traders don’t want to be left behind.   We alerted 1pm to such a possibility and the SPX fell just shy of a couple of points of hitting our next resistance target of 1177, the SOX made a NCH and joined every other pulse of the market in doing so. 

Now what?  It's pretty obvious that the latest move is being carried by some heavyweights.    Even though that the new high list is popping up with plays left and right, none of them are as significant as the ones that make up the key index.    Many of our plays, and especially those are sensitive to the Economy, are being helped along by this strong bullish environment.    The toughest thing for the bulls, regardless new or old, is that they can't shy away from this action.    Waiting for better price to enter is what we like to do, but we also don't want to miss out on any strong action from different groups on our shadowlist.     Today, we have some strong performance from Techs, led by semi's >2%, LED semi group (VECO ), and Commodity linked metal stocks (coals, steels CLF X WLT ) after getting sold off last few sessions came back roaring.   Also, Auto parts & Equipment stocks noted yesterday continued to get momo (HAR ) last alerted March 10th a as a breakout potential exploded out of the gate, continuing its previous days break with a very quick 5% lift.  

So now, the guess is on!  Where are we really going to settle before the NFP report?   Before the next round of earning starts, where does this market want to be?   Does it matter in the grande scheme of things for the rest of 2010??.  Probably not,  but,  we'll know the answer soon enough for the short term prospects.

Article originally appeared on Your Personal Trader (http://www.yourpersonaltrader.com/).
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