.. like a hockey shoot-out to break this range...
Today, we were thinking when was the last time the market had any good news?. Just like today with a disappointing jobless claims #/ durable goods, we seem to have only headwinds..eco’ data, political..etc for weeks now. The last ‘tailwind’ was a holiday (China New Years) of all things to let this market recoup some of the downside as US markets literally played home alone.
So, really, considering all the negativity we’ve faced, it’s not all that bad that we’re around SPX1100 as the week comes to a close. We talked about a bearish reversal and a chance at 20ma earlier in the week and after one up day, today the market smacked the 20ma today and reversed not violating the 1085. Recall, the 20ma area is of importance as this was the mark all the way up in 2009 rally. As the fact that there is no conviction buying to push out and close out of this now 7 day range, today's consolation prize is selling was not aggressive and so no conviction is on the other side to breakdown. Both sides lack confidence. Longs are jittery and shorts are pretty quick to cover as seen today.
Unfortunately, we are getting lower highs all week, but today’s rebound may inspire overseas markets and we can change the lower high closes theme tomorrow with some follow through. A ‘tailwind’ tomorrow might be the snowstorm as trading desks will be quiet allowing for some monkey retail business and end of month window dressing. Yep, we’re getting desperate for a ‘catalyst’ being meteorologists. This market is simply an ETF trade right now, which is great for flippers, but for traders like us looking for a trend, momentum in either a group or individual stock, it’s almost non-existent at this moment.