Your Personal Trader - Journal 2012

Earnings season growth coming in at 10-11% vs. low single digit expectation has pushed SP to 1390 /over our 20MA benchmark for first time in 2 ½ weeks. Without AAPL, SP still gained ~1% on the day. RUT near important ~815 level again. Today, 21 out of 45 stocks listed in the last Shadowlist gained >3%, just under half of those >4%. Still, most beta stocks only managed to put in an ‘inside day’on the individual charts for now. All the weekend Bear wedges, flags were put to dust. Market not only ran back through them, but now sits in the vicinity of ~2 week range highs. A big 'Bear' failure to increase Monday’s downside, but as discussed afterwards the gap might've played into the Bulls hands.

Europe, positives from earnings, LTRO working (putting money into the economy according to bank lending survey), ECB might be stepping up on the growth compact measures to go with the fiscal discipline pacts.

FOMC, an In-line ‘ready to do more’, if eco’ deteriorates….If you need to pick at parts, Bernanke said last NFP# was not representative of broader labor market indicating things are better than it seemed from the NFP. Also, sounded better on housing. In all, a tad better growth forecast. First hike forecast moved odds(hawkish) into Q4’13.

All in, the above looks like 'upside risk', an initial claims # retreat would be a nice starter to reclaiming SP1400.

Oh yeah, Ironically (lol), following yesterday’s IBD rant .. IBD has reversed its early April ‘Market in correction’ call to 'Market in Confirmed Uptrend'.