Your Personal Trader - Journal 2012

Collectively Global PMI’s have faltered into contraction over the time due to one culprit and that is the EZ crisis. It is no surprise that eventually US PMI would the same under the ongoing troubles and today, it finally did. The recession calls started to reverberate with market sliding to ~6-7SP handles off the 3.8 PMI drop, but soon the market realized the EZ progress should make the US PMI a lagging indicator and the market reversed to inch out an SP gain. If the EZ crisis clears the air going forward, it would make the US June PMI a blip as things should only improve going forward.

All in, a pretty good indictor today of market accepting summit measures to along with the fact that no selling occurred globally (DAX, FTSE, CAC up another 1% )after a weekend of digesting the news. Also, the headlines of a few European countries moving towards blocking the bond buying plans was the first hiccup (as noted many implementation aches to come), but this first was positively shrugged off.

The picture remains the same into 1pm market close tomorrow (Tues.) and July 4^th, but before the next bell the ECB decision will be out and a BOE Q ease should occur. ECB may announce a 12m LTRO, a 36mth LTRO and we get see a gap into that bell. Expectation is for a .25% rate cut, may get .50%. All in, as discussed a lack of action would disappoint markets, but unlikely as ECB needs to return some favors.

A Happy and safe 4^th…