Your Personal Trader - DJIM Journal 2011

It’s definitely getting a little more volatile this month, a 3^rd consecutive day where the intraday peak to trough is 200pts on the DJIA and ~20pts on the SPX. Despite a decent open, the market pretty well picked up where it left off last week (selling) , but hitting more sec’s/individual stocks unlike Friday.

The finger pointing is on the Nazzy today courtesy of WFargo downgrade of the semi’s ( down>3% intraday), but in reality this is just more de-risking in the marketplace taking place. Firstly, WF didn’t downgrade any individual names (actually raised some names), secondly, JPM, released a 2^nd positive note in less than a week on the semi’s citing SIA #’s released March 2nd and thirdly, GS raised $ targets on at least 10 Naz stocks incl. high growth FFIV,APKT,RVBD, yet these high growth names were also off 3-4%. These reco’s should not be responsible for a 70pts intraday loss on the Nazz and so it has to be some other factors at play.(ie. de-risk).

Any further broad market damage was averted by a technical bounce off last week’s lows. Recall recent notes on 50ma, its crept higher, now at 1297.

Shadowlist

Consumer- SODA, last week alerted following sell off on EPS, exploded 7% early and held on to most gains by close. Noted last week..”life coming back here today and maybe a good sign forward”, today Euro M&A activity gave high end a lift TIF. FOSL, had a good afternoon, UA drifting higher.
Momentum/ earnings/ winners of ’10- We’ve talked of the sloppy trading in high growth names, today we saw money flow from the best percentage gainer group since September as well. (SMH). The Opticals got hit on CIEN weak guidance. Likely an overreaction as this could be more of a company specific (intergration issue) than a show of less than robust optical demand ( eyes on FNSR Tues. AMC now) Networking JNPR holding in well, APKT may benefit from BSFT, (+20% AMC rise following earnings). NVDA, analyst day (Tues.) may bottom the stock.