After a few days of some seemingly stiff resistance or maybe it was just waiting for NFP report, the Bulls used the Bears biggest nemesis during this rally to power to a new high of 1018. The Bears nemesis since March is improving economic data and Friday this time came in form of the NFP. One plus one equals two and since March the market is in hyper drive as 1)improving economic data and 2)earning forecasts equal rising equity prices!. As long as this continues, we have a chance to see the market near 1050 by Labor day. The only negative is what we first said coming into week of Aug 3,…“..one more push ….say to 1014 as 1st possible R before a market reversal. In our view, the SPX is setting up to blow off some of the premium steam after it breaks 1k into the employment report week. We hope this is not the case, but sellers did come out as discussed in Fridays Journal and market failed to close over 1014 (8pts below high of day)
Even though we didn’t gap spike open (our fear for reversal), we did have what many would call a spike as we had traded 991 ES futs before the report. We will point out to a low Nasdaq volume day and GS action as negatives. We did like that SP 600 and mid cap SP outperformed rising ~2.7% each while the majors were up ~1.1-1.3% on average. Of course, we like this as this plays into our niche and avoids being too glued to SPX action day to day. The healthiest thing the market can do this week is blow off some steam as bullish sentiment is very high. A broad market stall should still allow for some individual stocks picking, sooner than later money flow should come to the worthy mid-small caps.
A slow eco data week, the most notable will be the IP/ retail sales which is expected to post large July gains and FOMC meet.