Too good to be true?
Wednesday, July 15, 2009 at 01:26AM
Jon in ININ

Goldman's report was widely ‘whisper’ anticipated and it only says so much about its own savvy operation ( hedge fund), which does not represent anything from our economy.    Day opened in a good mood follow through as indexes were up slightly, it's a pretty decent showing given the kind of exuberance we had yesterday and it has carried into AMC.  Basically, it's all eyes on Intel tonight!

To make it simple, ‘Chipper ‘ INTC  did not disappoint!   They reported revenue of $8.02 bill and eps of $0.19/shr with a gross margin of 50.8%.   This easily beat the consensus of $7.28 bill revenue, $0.08/shr eps and 46.4% of margin.   To make things better, they guided for a seasonally stronger 2H.   This report looks outstanding and deserves the kind of after hour action it receives.   But,  how does it impact the trading environment?    Being one of the big tech bellweathers,  it certainly affects all of the hardware and software companies out there.   Here's the caveat.   Despite this spectacular number it doesn’t jive yet with evidence of PC demand.    One plus one doesn’t equal two for the rest of the PC/Processor market.  If anything this part will curb enthusiasm at AH’s SPX highs.   End demand is not evident yet in the broad marketplace and enterprise market is quiet.    "A little improvement in consumer spending" was in the CCall,  we`ll see how far "a little" can go in a market wanting growth/ spending or will this story go into an inventory (replenishment) correction file.

Still, we are excited to see INTC kick off the earning season with a bang because it generally helps sentiment.   Having said that, we have always believed, going into this quarter, that the techs may potentially have the best upside surprises from their reports.  We definitely don't expect the same kind of potential from other sectors.   

As last Q…as we go through earnings season , we will compose a Shadow list ‘B’ of reporting stocks that may become inclusions into list ‘ A”.   Basically, it’s a preliminary list, we’ll see if a DDRX BWY STAR STEC ARUN  winner emerges as from last Q’s list.   We’ll add ININ  today, a little software company that came out with decent earning and great reaction.   It did have a pre day move into earnings after an analyst note, so it has 2 days now of gains to digest, so we’ll wait here for consolidation. 

Overall,  we think this mkt may have hit resistance at SPX Futs 911 AH's, which translates to 917 SPcash approx.   Even heavier resistance comes around SPX 920/925 area.   It's way too early to speculate we'd break the latter.   However, we have to remain open minded as this market can trade in a very emotional way  vs. technical  this earning season,  but the reports would need to continue and come in a feverish pitch from the big boys.   Bottom line, the bar has been set and we'll have to see if other companies will follow suit.

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