Well, another low volume day and another low volume sell off.   The only thing different today is that there was no late day rally holding and the market closed near the low falling 20pts to ~815SPX,  a level we‘ve been noting is short term support in our view.    In all fairness,  this week has been very quiet so far and the trading action has been far below average compared to last couple of weeks, still an underlying bid was present today as we reversed late, only to give it up into the close.   The 'bid' should be there tomorrow to keep the steep rally in tact,  it will probably be somewhere between overnight lows on SPX cash and 815 during the day.   Simply, we could just reverse from overnight lows if they come near 800 and go straight up into the trading day.

The only real catalyst played out most of the day.   A TALF headline circulating from premarket and was noise on CNBC all day.    In reality,  we don’t think this is all that important and we are just in profit taking excuse mode after the 25% bubble.   This is still fine as long as we hold tomorrow.

We had some nice action in a few called out plays here today.  EBS , alerted yesterday again in low $12’s rallied to a high of 13.58 today, we still think a contract is around the bend and will generate a gap open, so we’d keep it a hold not to miss.   Before it's first run alerted from $12 to 15, we did say this is a longer term play.   ICE , an alerted buy at $77 recently made it to $88+ (15%) and was noted in Intraday trader today as it came to Jan/April highs at $85 for another trade opp’.   This one is quickly becoming a favorite on any significant pullback to buy back.

AMC earnings, AA  reported an inline number after missing badly the last 2 Q’s and stock action was not so too bad in early AH trading.   A case of looking better than feared.   Liquidity has improved here and estimates should be revised with the stock getting back on it’s recent track shortly.   On the other hand,  MOS  reported a somewhat soft number ( EPS of $0.13 versus Street Consensus EPS estimate of $0.22) and was all over the place AMC.   The negative outlook on potash volumes should pressure it’s shares and those of it’s competitors.    Reaction is what you wait for in this Q.    A few Tech’s JNPR (preannounce), FFIV on mixed reports traded higher.     The good thing is we are not seeing any major ‘blow ups’  so far in pre announcements.


There's not a lot of catalysts in the next couple of days (FOMC minutes tomorrow?) and we feel market should be able to hold at least SPX 800 this week.    Due to the low volume,  it's also NOT unrealistic to see a pop next couple of days.  The first trend change this week should be a pretty good one.    At DJIM, we have added a bit of our favourite names today so we can better position ourselves for the next pop.    Bottom line,  we are feeling more optimistic now that the index is able to consolidate  recently to give this market a chance to move higher.