Other than some heart pounding drills for traders speculating in DNDN, it was a very quiet day where neither the Bulls or Bears gained any trading momentum. The Bears stalled at overnight lows of 840 again, the Bulls topping out in the 860 's. The dullness was a little surprising considering the initial reaction in the overnight/ premkt action. On the other hand the BAC/C credit needs are not a surprise and the ’bug’ didn’t oink as loud. Simply, the market acted rationally after digesting the newsflow. For now, we aren't drawing any firm conclusion, we’re simply monitoring this just like everyone else, but instead of complaining as many about the ~30pts SPX range bound trading, we’re slicing and dicing individual plays. Today, CRYP gave an easy ~10-15% after note.
We feel pretty confident today seeing that the majority of the "good" financial institutions weren't affected by the BAC-C capital needs. A good close over $11 XLF is still a case for going higher in the overall market. AMC, ETFC announced that it needed to raise more capital to meet requirements. This shouldn’t rattle the banks- brokers, we think the market is not grouping everything together as a probability discussed here recently...finally!. The volatile days (double digit % days) of this group seem to have abated.
In terms of earning plays, it seems many of the recent earning performers are taking today's action as an excuse to consolidate. This is very healthy and it allows you to build positions again at a reasonable level and at a comfortable pace. One earning play that bucked the overall trend, though, is NEU . It has simply acted really well since it reported. We traded this one many times in the past and it's refreshing to see it back onto our trading list.
Tomorrow, the FOMC event can potentially excite this market, even if no blockbuster is expected. We’re not expecting any new credit easing programs and we don’t expect any change to the size of the existing programs. However, it will be interesting to see if market players can somehow find something in the statement as a catalyst to move this market.